Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[trcml] 03/4/2020 17:51

"Sydney mason must be spinning in his grave"

Lew Hammerson before him.

[bolador] 03/4/2020 17:42

PropInv,

Hammerson have received a deposit against sale, no further info at the moment.

[gripfit] 03/4/2020 17:20

Sydney mason must be spinning in his grave

[propinv] 03/4/2020 16:00

Anyone got any intel on deal conditionality with Orion? I know says unconditional but could be SPV.

[nickrl] 03/4/2020 15:46

TR agree t/o rents aren't a universal panacea but its pretty clear disposable income will be down for a period of time if not permanently impaired for years so landlords aren't going to find a queue of tenants (ok certain places may still be favourable). This i still see these as a means to keep tenants to allow them to rebuild and then share in the good times if they come. Hanging out for original rents just risks vacant assets.

[essentialinvestor] 03/4/2020 15:41

Rob, Great Portland have an LTV around 14% based on their last valuation.
That's the lowest in the sector I'm aware of.

[escapetohome] 03/4/2020 15:36

Thankyou for picking up on this point.

I shall do so.

And probably avoid this share.

[propinv] 03/4/2020 15:12

This has no debt? Have you read the accounts. Start with the debt maturity profile.

[essentialinvestor] 03/4/2020 14:52

TR, are you seeing possible longer term value in any of the UK REITS near
current levels?. Thanks.

[trcml] 03/4/2020 14:46

Turnover rents are nothing new, common in factory outlet centres and likely the POs are on them now. However, t/o leases are not straightforward. They are not turnover-geared only, but normally have base minimum rent payable regardless. Some landlords use t/o leases where any increase on the starting base minimum and at subsequent base rent reviews is maintained throughout the term. If the turnover element of the rent drops below an agreed level then the landlord could end the lease. That pressurises the tenant into reducing prices of its goods in the hope of boosting turnover but at the expense of profit margins. The business model also only works for physical shops: on-line trading is unaffected unless the landlord requires turnover from online trading to be included in the turnover figures in which case the retailer might wonder whether it is really worth it. Another factor is that many retailers, particularly small shopkeepers, are very protective of their their trading figures and dislike intensely the landlord should be privy to the facts. For multiple retailers whose leases are can be in separate companies ring-fenced from the parent co that is less of an issue.

[essentialinvestor] 03/4/2020 13:56

..This has no debt??, Oh my.

With respect, read the accounts.

[escapetohome] 03/4/2020 13:46

Is this another intu?

I would say no.

Because this has no debt.

So thats one thing going for it at least.

[nickrl] 03/4/2020 11:51

True NAV will be determined when you factor in rental income lost for at least 6 months plus 50% of your tenants not returning and those that do wanting a big discount. So any sensible landlord that realises the gravity of the situation should deduce that the current business model is broken and leasehold agreements are worthless so they need a new business model. I see turnover rents as that key but landlords wont move on this until the bankers also recognise the world has changed.

[trcml] 03/4/2020 11:10

Probably at the stage now where the properties are cheaper to buy than it would cost to build them. But why would you?

[ny boy] 03/4/2020 10:43

For what it’s worth but only for guidance

Support1: 65.24p Support2: 54.28p

[escapetohome] 03/4/2020 10:42

Haa haa haa

[ny boy] 03/4/2020 10:36

80% Drop since Feb, Hammerson have definitely taken a hammering!
What’s the NAV?

[bolador] 03/4/2020 10:20

So with a share price about ten per cent of the last nav of 600p adequate liquidity according to Peel Hunt and the latest big disposal due for unconditional settlement this month (a deposit has been paid)why is the share price at 64p ? The market must be discounting the asset sale completion and giving the thumbs down to the nav. Knocking 33% off the published nav leaves room for upside even if the disposal fails for now. Loan covenants are not in danger (see Peel Hunt)unless next stop is Viral Terminus. I Guess the shares are a buy now for wild west gunslingers.

[farrugia] 03/4/2020 09:34

this is a very treacherous market - can easily suck you in for you to regret it later.

[orchestralis] 31/3/2020 14:03

My purchase yesterday seems to be doing ok. But will it last.

[trcml] 30/3/2020 14:58

HMSO has previously said that customers for the premium outlets (PO) are mostly domestic and European: Chinese tourists account for only about 9% customers. As for the PO rents, generally rents for such outlets are on turnover leases, A basic minimum plus a percentage of each tenant's turnover (excluding VAT). With POs closed, and likely the base rent not being paid, I reckon the revenue stream here has all but dried up.

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2020 14:25

Luck with your holding.

[orchestralis] 30/3/2020 14:23

I do understand the debt situation and I am happy with this level of risk.