Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:58

Yes they are professionals in this area of investment. If you look at their website they invest directly and indirectly in retail property. I guess they recognize cheap!

[win2000] 14/5/2020 13:53

Lighthouse Capital is keeping buying and holding 8.09% now. Interesting.

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:50

Altho there is still some mileage left in the retail

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:48

hxxps://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/permitted-development-rights-expanded-to-allow-demolition-without-permission/10046599.article
Residential in uk sells for significantly more per sq ft than retail. At worst hmso is a giant valuable land bank you get cheap

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:36

Actually it's very easy in the UK certainly to convert commercial to residential intus problem is the debt is just too high - they were very highly leveraged. That's just not the case here which gives some margin.

[farrugia] 14/5/2020 13:28

'Ultimately this is an asset play. The assets are worth massively more than you're paying. That's it.'

Isn't that what some Intu shareholders used to say? How difficult is it to convert commercial properties into residential?

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:27

The concept that interest rates will go up is also ludicrous. They are talking of the going negative if anything. I get the feeling you are not interested in a discussion though just talking the shares down

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:24

Mason you didn't answer what the enterprise value was. I can only think it's some valuation AFTER taking away liabilities in which case you are double counting

[777mason] 14/5/2020 13:17

Property investors will lose momentum too many Property, there will be a reduction on liquidity, interest rates will have to go up. At some point, the markets need a crash fee money is ok for awhile but at this rate no one will want to go back to work, but the piper he will always want his money back, that you can be sure of.

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2020 13:13

And what happens to NAV is the need to raise funds?.

They issue a shed load of shares which heavily dilutes NAV imv.

It's why debt metrics are highly relevant.

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:08

Ultimately this is an asset play. The assets are worth massively more than you're paying. That's it.

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 13:06

Swap and debt breaks only take place if you exercise them , William Cooper. As I said above even with a 50% reduction you're still covered by assets worth over double. Find me another stock that is so cheap!

[williamcooper104] 14/5/2020 13:00

The pre crisis cap rates on the European and Bicester where v low so easy for a 50 percent reduction (being about half in the yield and half in long term erv assumptions) Don't forget swap/debt break costs And never mind LTVs - what's the comfort on being able to meet interest cover covenants and actually pay their interest

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 12:59

Mason what exactly is your enterprise value and where does that come from? It's certainly not the property value. Have a look at the balance sheet.

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 12:55

As I said yesterday If you allow for 50% you're still in the money. (7.315bn/2-2.938bn)/.335bn=2.147 ie 214%. However I don't see a 50% drop. Property investors are long term not like many stock investors and see there will be asset inflation coming with all the quantitative easing

[777mason] 14/5/2020 12:53

Researchcentre123

Total net Debt £2,938.20m Enterprise Value £3,036.45m. Shares In Issue 771.51 m If you knock off debt £106/ by 771 = £1.37p per share, take into account forward outlook = -0.40p per share

[hybrasil] 14/5/2020 12:50

Research

I don't know where you are getting your 1/3rd figure.

London resi based on Savills auction this week of a house in Islington is only down 15 %

No valuer will value commercial at the moment. It has to be down in my opinion at least 50%.

Do your numbers on 50% and where are you?

[777mason] 14/5/2020 12:40

Thanks, Farrugia.

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 12:39

I don't know any your figures these are those provided on the audited balance sheet in the annual report

[farrugia] 14/5/2020 12:27

777mason14 - figures from stockopedia

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 12:27

As I said yesterday if you allow for a drop of 1/3 in asset value since December valuation, then assets are worth £4.89bn. If you knock off debt/liabilities of 2.93bn then that leaves net assets of 1.95bn. market cap is just 335m. So asset cover then is 583% or 256p per share

[777mason] 14/5/2020 12:20

Researchcentre123

net asset value is down The closure of 17 of the 20 premium outlets held by Hammerson's interests in Value Retail and VIA outlets, which include Bicester Village in Oxfordshire, also weighed heavily on the group’s rental receipts as 36 percent of gross rental income is based upon tenant trading performance.

The group, which has £1.2bn in committed facilities and cash, drew a further £100m in debt Total net Debt assets £2,938.20m

[researchcentre123] 14/5/2020 12:11

Mason am not sure what you mean by net debt? They have net assets not net debt

[777mason] 14/5/2020 12:07

Total net Debt £2,938.20m Enterprise Value £3,036.45m.