Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[blusteradjuster] 29/9/2023 10:05

Just a week to get from 11 to 12.

[volsung] 25/9/2023 07:31

Bought a few
Look interesting

[nchanning] 24/9/2023 07:46

The story works with day rates as they are at 30k a day GMS will still be able to deleverage and create a lot of value . But in the last cycle day rates were 60k a day , and the extra revenue would pretty much go straight to the bottom line . That's how to get all the way back to book value in a hurry ...

[hpcg] 22/9/2023 15:28

And we have an 11 handle on bid and offer. The takeaway Kuppy had from Pareto is that suppliers have committed to no more large scale capex. Should that be the case then there are years of profitable business to come throughout the service industry. I don't see the buying stopping any time soon, though I think we'll see decent turnover of shares as longer term holders cash out at even and shorter term holders make a turn. The people buying now are looking for a double minimum, but it isn't difficult to see how people buying then would also be looking for a 2x.

[hpcg] 21/9/2023 08:34

catsick - thanks for that item. I did wonder if the coincidence of the frantic buying and the Pareto Energy Conference was causal. There are a lot of deep pocketed go-anywhere value investor sniffing for opportunities in the sector and they are likely driving the price action here.

Prosafe rates are more likely following deep water drilling activity and thus correlate with the rates the likes of VAL and RIG are getting. Ours are self propelled jack-ups necessarily for shallower water. It is activity in the UAE and Qatar regions of the Gulf that are more important to us. The new large wind farms offshore Germany will help too.

[catsick] 21/9/2023 03:32

Interesting presentation on prosafes website, pareto are hosting a sector conference and prosafe presented yesterday, they are similar to gms in that they have a fleet of service rigs, although they have larger severe weather rigs, they have been also hit very hard with low utilisation and day rates, however the market is tightening fast and they are seeing their class of service rigs seeing renewals at 85% higher rates now as well as much tighter markets going forward ....

[loglorry1] 20/9/2023 08:41

UK inflation data helping - may cause a pause by fed. Interest costs a very big deal for GMS.

[catsick] 20/9/2023 08:28

Seems like very large volumes going through, I wonder if this is more than just a re-rate , interesting to see if we get more news of new charters or is someone building a big stake ?

[hpcg] 18/9/2023 16:11

Very nice action into the close. I note that mergers are starting to happen in the offshore support and upstream space. Pretty relentless trading well above 10p in decent lot sizes. 8 million shares traded today, which when you consider the top end volume months of January and July came in at 40m shows a lot of interest. Possibly something brewing? Or perhaps a value investor is getting involved? With a billion shares out that is less than 1% of the outstanding. Anyone wanting to build a stake of substance is going to have to work a lot harder.

[lomcovaks] 18/9/2023 15:32

Unfortunately I had to sell this morning as needed some cash to pay a bill but more than happy to take the profit from my purchase at 6p.
Good luck to all holders. I'll be back in if there's a pull-back.

[catsick] 18/9/2023 13:39

The pressure for this pop has been brewing for a while ....

[richtea2517] 18/9/2023 12:15

I'm holding for nowNice profit but always sell too early Happy with 20p then I'm out I think : )

[xxx] 18/9/2023 09:11

Happy holder, the market is coming around to the co's attractions.
[see post 1642]

[Though did start buying at ? 28p from memory !]

[nchanning] 18/9/2023 09:09

There is an inevitably in day rates increasing as GMS are still working off contracts signed in the nadir of 2020/1 . If you look at the offshore drilling rig count in the Middle East it has reached full utilisation of every marketed rig , and surely the support boat market is following suit . When this floated it was making 150 million EBITDA, every chance of getting there again , and as the debt is paid down , the huge interest savings start flowing to equity

[catsick] 18/9/2023 08:47

At the moment most rig companies are trading above current book value which for gms is about 22p, the ebitda yield on book value is about 14% which is in line with what you would expect for 20-30 years life assets like rigs ships or planes looking at similar small cap quoted dry bulker and aircraft leasing companies, this company is way too cheap and I can see in a year or two, with debt substantially reduced a price of 30-40p

[baddeal] 14/9/2023 07:46

Any posters seen recent broker forecasts for gms?I'm think 15-18p within 18-24 months based upon continued good utilisation, reducing (hopefully) int rates and continued deleverage but interested to know other forecasts out there.

[hpcg] 13/9/2023 09:33

Poised to break out higher, classic bull flag completion.

[hpcg] 01/9/2023 13:55

NChanning - the declining cost of debt is a big part of the story. As you say, with a company on firm footing, and hard asset backed, there should be some competition amongst lenders.

With the warrants so far in the money we can also add £7,881,857 to company funds. I would have thought we'll see some cashed in. The lenders can do that synthetically by shorting but that seems an expensive way of doing it when profits can be put into lending elsewhere, or the P&L account.

[nchanning] 01/9/2023 11:53

Let's say in a couple of years that EBITDA IS 100 million debt is 200 million , the Fed funds rate is back to 3% , the debt can be refinanced with a smaller margin as the company is less distressed . Perhaps GMS stops paying down debt and starts paying a 50% yield on todays share price

[hpcg] 01/9/2023 10:07

wigwammer - GMS failing, as in going in to administration, has been off the cards for a couple of years now. It is the terminal value that investors are trading against. Pretty clearly the debt will be paid off before the assets are redundant. Add the interest payments and principal repayments and a debt free company is throwing off cash at an alarming rate. We'll get a dividend before that point, though not for a few years, though that is Libor dependent.

[wigwammer] 31/8/2023 18:52

Remember the debt holders now own a material equity exposure via the warrants... they don't want GMS to fail... ATB

[gen_romer] 31/8/2023 12:03

of course they had a choice to not to cut costs,keep utilisation at low levels (previous mgmt guilty of all this),and dilute existing holders with another capital raise-give credit where it is due