Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[trident5] 25/7/2022 15:41

Net debt hasn't yet fallen very much at all, and not much of the fall can be attributed to operations so far.

[loglorry1] 25/7/2022 15:21

Net debt is falling rapidly and currently stands around $350m. A 2% rise in LIBOR/Sonia adds $7m (vs a fall in net debt of c$80m a year) to the interest bill so not sure where you get £11m from. Furthmore, net debt is forecast to be sub $200m by 2024 so will have more than halved in last few years. Extra interest cost is not good but it's tollerable given how much cash the company is producing.

[mudbath] 25/7/2022 15:06

The reason for the drift, Aimwinner, could be attributable to the increasing LIBOR rate which will add considerably (maybe circa £11million) to this years interest costs for GMS, particularly as they have not hedged against the rise for the main rump of their debt.

(All just my opinion)

[trident5] 08/7/2022 14:53

Seen the market? Drifting's good.

[aimwinner] 08/7/2022 13:41

Anyone know why these have been drifting, has the deal with the banks been sorted yet?

[exbroker] 06/7/2022 16:19

Afternoon!

[emigna2020] 01/7/2022 14:18

Exbroker
13 Oct '21 - 15:35 - 1756 of 1904

Afternoon Steve

[hpcg] 30/6/2022 13:48

Interesting voting results for the AGM. 11-15 evenly split and in one case lost.

[hpcg] 28/6/2022 08:57

I have little sympathy for people that remained invested through a down cycle in oil and gas. A core function of an investor is to anticipate good and bad times for a company they invest in, especially in a cyclical industry. Many would argue that company managers should even more anticipate when the sector they are in is turning over from deficit to surplus, but hardly any of them do, hence why there are cycles outside of the overall business cycle. The information required for investors to make a judgement in GMS seems pretty comprehensive to me, and the choice of the loan raise is pretty much a wash to investors by my calculations in the area of the current share price, hence why the price is where it is. I'd say the warrant issue is much more likely as a result, had the share price broken out then the equity raise would be better for investors, so they should just get on and do it. Investors with cash will be able to keep their relative holding in the market.

[owenski] 27/6/2022 18:54

"Stated they don't need to raise further equity"

"Have the choice of raising further equity"

So which is it... Clear as mud.

[horndean eagle] 27/6/2022 18:40

Its a little harsh. There are now 2 independent large shareholders on board. They have stated they don't need to raise further equity in the recent results as they have the choice of either raising equity or issuing warrants. So far you cannot really fault sea fox or management for what they have done with the company over the last couple of years. Negotiating much better banking facilities with far less dilution. They have taken cost out of the business. Business is doing well and they are paying down debt. What more would you like them to do?

The Group is exploring the various contractual options available per the current bank terms to take place by the end of 2022. As disclosed, the two options available are the raise of US$ 50 million equity or the issuance of 87.6 million warrants giving potential rights to 132 million shares if exercised, which would result in cash proceeds to the Company of £ 7.9 million. As at 31 December 2021, neither of the two contractual scenarios had been ruled out. The Board however consider the issuance of warrants to have a slightly higher chance of occurrence.

[xxx] 27/6/2022 17:05

The business is a price taker , rather than a price maker and thus he role of mnagement is to be on top of the cycle.
GMS has appointed a board picked to be aligned o the interests of the major shareholder, not experise in the business.

If you look at the R+A they have managed to comply with 1/11 TCFD criteria.

The raising of funds last year and lack of appropriate updates regarding the business, further underline the lack of interest in keeping shareholders abreast of the business.

The write downs were a further example of scare tactics.

I have faith in the business, but fully expect them to try an unrealistic offer for the rest of the company at a time of their choosing, which wil have a better chance of gaining acceptance , if shareholders are unsure of the value of the assets, their prospects or the sector in general.

A further example of this is the additional capital raise required by the end of the year. Rather than discussing what waivers might have been sought, depending on cash generation, debt:ebitda and other relevant criteria, there is a fairly unhelpful re-statement of the loan agreement.

In short, they appear to be acting for the benefit of the majority shareholder and doing their best to keep his options open.This opinion has been formed whilst watching their manoeuvres prior to joining the board...

[xxx] 26/6/2022 12:09

Yep.
Therefore voted against all the motions.

[davidosh] 13/6/2022 16:17

We have a great show lined up for tonight and Gulf Marine will feature in the BASH session...



The full programme for the evening is here...

Monday 13th June 2022, 5pm – 9pm
Programme

5.00 pm Mello welcome and Company presentation by Impax AM with Ian Simm
5.30 pm Gervais Williams – Inflation changes everything – How the UK stock market could come to be the asset of choice for global investors
6.00 pm Nicky Foulston CEO at RBG Holdings shares her insights into the recent RNS concerning the share register
6.30 pm Paul de Gruchy presents – Alternative Funds: more than a safe port in a storm?
6.50 pm Company presentation by Hercules Site Services
7.30 pm Vector Vest
7.45 pm Specialist insight – Steve Clapham looks at The Wire Card Fraud
8.00 pm Mello BASH

You are welcome to join and as this is no doubt important for you all to watch I am happy for shareholders to join for free using the code FREE1306 but please do not share elsewhere as this is a ticketed show and there will be hundreds of investors who have paid to join.

[hpcg] 13/6/2022 11:53

GMS doesn't provide drilling rigs it supplies support rigs. Work is tied to maintenance as much as anything.

[catsick] 13/6/2022 11:23

Pareto put out research which has good data on day rates for various rig types, all pretty bullish despite the market meltdown

[nchanning] 09/6/2022 15:24

Totally agree and it does take a while for higher oil prices to feed into more drilling activity . Do you have another source to track the day rates or you are just using info from RNS's ?

[catsick] 08/6/2022 13:56

There is a lot of upside here , the day rates last year were 25,700 a small increase on the previous year but already now 10% higher and heading up, they were 60,000 in the last drilling boom in 2015 so have a lot of upside and it all drops straight to the bottom line, my calculation is that these are worth 30p if day rates can get back to 35k which should be easy to reach in 2 years with oil companies flush with cash and heavily backlogged on maintenance alone...

[melloteam] 22/5/2022 13:32

Mello2022, the popular three-day Investor event takes place on 24TH-26TH MAY at the Clayton Hotel & Conference Centre, Chiswick, W4. The breakdown of the three days is as follows:

Tuesday 24th May, 9am - 6pm - Mello Investment Trusts and Funds (WE ARE GIVING AWAY 20 FREE TICKETS TO THE TRUST AND FUNDS EVENT - THE FREE CODE IS FIRST20TF)

Wednesday 25th & Thursday 26th May, 9am - 6pm - Smaller Growth and Mid-Cap Companies (Tickets for 1 day are £115 and tickets for 2 days are £189. To get 50% off, use code MMTADVFN50).

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that GMS will be among the companies discussed on the BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell, Hold) panel on Wednesday. There will also be keynote speakers such as Lord John Lee, Leon Boros, Andy Brough, Rosemary Banyard, Clarke Carlisle and Gervais Williams.

For more information, please visit the event webpage:

[loganair] 21/5/2022 20:08

I've been listening to a pod cast by Barry Norris of Argonaut Capital who said the best place to be for the next 10 years is oil services and oil refiners as adding more wind in useless and adds no economic value as weather is the constraining factor.

When the wind blows, wind turbines that have to be replaced every 10 or so years, can produce 100% of our energy needs, however when the wind doesn't blow produces virtually none of our energy needs.

[hpcg] 13/5/2022 12:49

It shouldn't be tracking crude, it should be tracking the medium term undershoot in supply, which inevitably leads to oil field and wind field activity. Oil is where it is because Chinese demand is down 6% on its covid response, but one presumes that is a short term dip. Sure there will be an economic slow down too that hits demand but all that is doing is providing balance.

[blusteradjuster] 13/5/2022 11:17

With the share price moving in a channel the centre of which has risen 50% in 6 months, it could be argued that procrastination in that regard isn't a bad thing.

Especially given the similar shape of the crude oil chart.


EDIT: Tracking the price of crude (if that's what it's doing) is, I suppose, not unreasonable. However, it doesn't factor in any bonus of de-risking the enterprise via leverage reduction.

[hpcg] 13/5/2022 10:38

jailbird - they are contractually obliged to either raise $50m or issue the warrants. As the current market cap is just shy of $100m a 1 for 2 isn't quite enough, and there is always a question for small companies as to whether private investors will stump up for a rights issue. I prefer the rights because I'm just giving money to myself, but on the other hand I can cheaply buy in the dilution from the warrants. An RI is costly and even more so presuming it would be underwritten. Issuing the warrants now would ease uncertainty, which apparently is what investors hate, even though looking through it is a core part of the job. So I can see why it is a finely balanced choice for the board.