Share Tip: Gulf Marine Services – the shares of this energy sector services provider are about to lift-off |
 Very firm price movement right now.
Glued to the highs with the price up 13% at 17.65p. The market tried to sell it through 17p, but someone just sat there with a 25k iceberg and mopped everything up.
The market then realises a big buyer is sat there (maybe alleviates a few concerns that the price spike is very short lived on fear of the last remaining Seafox related sellers?) and outbids the 17p order to take it higher toward the current price.
So it is moving like those who kept the price down under 16p have been cleared and now it could be what remains of the Seafox holding. The last transfer from Seafox was in that RNS on the 10th January when they cut down to 67.78m shares.
Just wondering if these big buyers who came in yesterday are eating through those shares as well with a holding rns to follow to show that they have transferred more?
I suspect the market will get more enthusiastic on a further transfer by Seafox. We also know that not all the shares being transferred are being sold, so it is just a proportion of 67.78m, which makes it more intriguing.
You then have tens of millions being exchanged yesterday and good exchanges today without delayed prints. Wish I were a fly on the wall and could see who was in the background buying and what delayed prints will follow.
But the days of Seafox dragging the price down here are coming to an end. Their control and strangle over the price is dwindling with every day of sizeable exchanges like this.
Gyrations aside on residual sellers now, this looks set to go into the 20's. Just unsure when.
Someone knows. Someone knows if the whole lot are getting cleared out here with this level of buying.
Probably sat there having a little smirky smile.
I don't know. I just know it is getting very close to them being cleared.
All imo
DYOR |
I guess we will see a plug later today in Paul Scott's coverage - he has often talked of GMS and the coming overhang clearance |
Yes, been trying to add however none available |
Adding here.
I think the worst case now is it just comes back a penny or so and then awaits the final clearout, but it has gone into auction and it is moving like there are really big buyers in the background. It could have easily crashed back down by now.
As per yesterday, now there is an expectation of further big delayed prints. Everyone can see someone is definitely in the market buying big.
Show us those whoppers!
All imo
DYOR |
Is it through?
08:53 Had a go...averaging 16.3p.
I thought this would take abit longer but they're coming in again heavy in the morning with exchanges already near 5m without delayed prints.
There were alot of delayed prints here yesterday so wondering if more could hit today. Can't see those working in the background. They can move the price so abit FOMO here too
Let's see if it can hold the breakout.
All imo
DYOR |
Looks like we might be on for a breakout.Finally. |
12m cleared today by panmures. That's one seller done. |
Take your point hpcg. It is an interesting point.
Everyone is different.
If people believe in the value and aren't short term, then absolutely buy when the supply is there. Part of the issue here is that this overhang is such a drag, it will stir emotions for some. Others will argue there is an opportunity cost too. It is not the best market right now, but there are still sharp moves higher out there. Maybe some have played the US market too?
I guess the uncertain environment plays a part too. Those sharp move in bond yields could have eventually infected the whole market, regardless of the fundamentals. So a floor is only a floor so long as wider factors don't come into play. The thing with overhangs too is that we don't know for sure where the floor is.
Sometimes sellers can drag the price lower to get that final clear out as well. And if sellers sit long enough, can fundamentals change too? Nobody knows for sure how long an overhang can take so fundamentals could change. Does drill baby drill eventually lead to lower energy prices or could there be another macro event?
I just trade. Traders must believe they can time these things as well. I don't know how people are positioned, but so far, the weight of the overhang here is just too powerful to not consider other factors that could cause the price to go lower or miss other opportunities.
So there is alot in there.
This is just an opinion. People will disagree or maybe agree, I don't know.
But here's the thing...
I added to the post above about the correction trades skewing the volume, but there are more prints here, alot of delayed prints.
They're real, not prints and corrections which are all just added to the volume on ADVFN. ADVFN really need to correct the way the prints hit. A 1m trade printed and then cancelled shouldn't add 2m to the overall volume.
That aside, there are alsorts of genuine prints in there from 1m to 1.2m to 2.2m and so on, so this is now standout stuff, where someone is starting to step in with real intent.
Volume overall has ballooned to 33.3m so even with those corrections above, this is significant.
And that is what GMS holders have been waiting a long time for. Ultimately, all those factors above with regards to opportunity cost and other risks etc lighten up. Not suggesting this is go go gadget to the moon move now, but when someone starts chewing up the supply on offer like this, it will make people think more about the demand/supply dynamic, especially when the market is well aware of a overhang.
But for now there were still sellers in size at 15.6p-15.7p.
So not enough yet, but hey, this is a good start.
More please and then we could see some excitement.
All imo
DYOR |
According to the stock exchange there were just 2 large off book exchanges of 1.5mn and 2.7mn shares for about £650k. I find it funny that excess availability puts people off buying at a decent price, but they have to spend a lot more when that availability is used up. (Not aimed at you Sphere, no funds is a barrier for us all from time to time.)
I have thought our sellers had a floor at 15p and the trades below that were the usual market drib drabs of everyday PIs. The deals above were done at 15.5p, so who really knows. Of course their may be multiple sellers each with their own floor. |
>>Volume is showing as 12.46m but there are three trades around 15:45 which might be corrections.>>
ADVFN currently showing volume of 13.2 million
London Stock Exchange has 9.3 million
Yahoo has 9.3 million
... so it looks as though ADVFN are still having problems. |
Are these blocks of volume real? I can't tell today because ADVFN is knackered. I have got one monitor showing hardly anything and another showing some tidy chunks hitting.
Volume is showing as 12.46m but there are three trades around 15:45 which might be corrections.
Well...erm... I think they are ha
Still looks like some sellers in size at 15.65p and Bulls trying to get control of 15.5p...
Can't add anything more right now.
Watching closer.
Definitely notable activity here today.
16p is naturally key.
All imo
DYOR
15:59 There looks like alot of exchanges at 15.5p so someone is stepping in to take a chunk here, but there are still big sell orders on the offer at 15.6p-15.7p. The big hope with activity like this is you get some whopper prints hit to show someone is stepping in to try and clear sellers - a signal to look in closer. Sometimes that can be the start of stirring a little bit of excitement. Keeping a watch for delayed prints and any further activity. Need alot more of this, but encouraging.
16:21 Volume is skewed. Those three prints do include corrections:
The two 1.574 trades have been netted off against each other because someone has fat fingered the trade. It should be 2.574. |
I'd read back through the previous few months posts for an explanation - this was debated at length then |
A bit surprised that, with contraxt extension, backlog is just 483mm.
It was 503 on December 3rd. |
That's very helpful. Thanks. |
 I would expect all the warrants to be exercised. I would expect some to be cancelled in the market, but I now think more converted shares will be held. I'm now leaning much more towards holding because of the price action. Anyone that did not convert last spring, or summer is clearly holding out for a better price.
If we look at the timing of the only conversion thus far it was at the end of May 2024, after the drop off from the April high. I'd imagine that selling of those in advance of conversion was the proximate cause of that decline. Anyone that did not convert then clearly had a higher target price. Even if they had second thoughts they would have converted soon after 27 June when the in-specie distribution of the Seafox holding commenced. They didn't want to sell in to 17p then, so I doubt they would a year later with the relative time value that has cost. On the other hand, were I a warrant holder with a higher target price I would convert at the last minute because that is the most effective use of the money in that time.
Where I am cautious in that thesis is if the warrants are owned by banks rather than investors or money managers then they might have some whacky policy prescription. Those institutions are still about making money. The only people that can tell you are the current warrant holders, and they might not be the current holders at the last conversion date. |
What is the latest situation with the warrants?
Warrants for 83.5m shares @ 5.75p were outstanding as at 30 June 2024. Given the block listing application is there no way for us to track if any more of these are exercised?
Assuming the recent holdings RNSs are based on the correct number of total issued shares, then the total is unchanged at 1,070m, and no warrants have been exercised.
The warrants have a 30 June 2025 expiry date, so are we expecting all the warrants to be exercised in the next 5/6 months? Do we know who will hold the resulting shares and their intentions? |
As of 9th January they held 67,784,193 shares (as per RNS) - a drop of about 15.5m since 27th December.
One estimate :) is that they'll stop distributing at around 44,800,000 - another 23m to go then. |
Seafox 7.8% -> 6.3% after further distribution |
Don't know for sure that 15p is an attractive entry point for buyers but here we are again.
blusteradjuster 21 Dec '24 - 12:36 - 2727 of 2760
Definitely some buying interest at 15p. |
A Middle East oil group on the upgrade
This operator of liftboats has raised earnings guidance again, buoyed by a tight market, high utilisation rates and rising day rates |
Post 2756It's my understanding reading the RNS that HBJ only increased his holding due to Seafox share specie / distribution via IFH Limited. |
Thanks to Pauly Pilot - a great site, join
Paul’s Section:
Gulf Marine Services (GMS) - Paul holds
15.4p (pre-market) £164m - Debt Refinance Completed - Paul - GREEN
Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector…
There wasn’t really any doubt over this, but it reassures me that the refinancing is now completed -
“...is pleased to announce that it successfully completed the refinance of its debt, on December 30th 2024, as detailed in the Company's previous announcement on August 1st, 2024.
Alex Aclimandos, GMS Chief Financial Officer, commented:
"As described earlier, we are very happy to have secured this deal as it lowers our costs of borrowing and gives us more flexibility on capital allocation, reflecting the trust of the lenders."
Mansour Al Alami, GMS Executive Chairman, added:
"This new deal will allow us to proceed with our deleveraging plans and to continue to move value from lenders to shareholders."
Paul’s opinion - that last sentence sums up the investment case. As each month goes by, GMS is paying down its debt from prodigious cashflows, so all shareholders need to do is wait, and the company’s finances get stronger.
This has not been fully reflected in the share price yet, because there’s a seemingly endless flow of selling from the Seafox overhang.
Other bearish points might be that the low oil price could see M.Eastern demand reduce perhaps? Although the order book currently gives very good visibility.
I like the fact that GMS has diversified into offshore wind, where its vessels could be redeployed for only modest conversion cost (mgt told me on a call last year). One ship is already in Europe doing that.
Last year saw a series of encouraging trading updates, and broker upgrades. Some forecast data seems to show reducing forecasts, this looks like a data anomaly to me, as I’ve been following the detailed updates from Zeus (many thanks) available on Research Tree, and these have not been falling. It’s not always clear what other data goes into consensus numbers, and they can be unreliable for smaller caps if some out-of-date forecasts get jumbled up in the calculations.
Hopefully the new bank facilities should allow GMS to start paying divis. I think that’s important, and I would prefer some income from this share, and not hopefully management buying more ships and running up more debt, as this stuff can be horribly cyclical.
The last 9 months share price moves have been frustrating for shareholders, but zoom out and the bigger picture remains very positive - |
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