I'd read back through the previous few months posts for an explanation - this was debated at length then |
A bit surprised that, with contraxt extension, backlog is just 483mm.
It was 503 on December 3rd. |
That's very helpful. Thanks. |
 I would expect all the warrants to be exercised. I would expect some to be cancelled in the market, but I now think more converted shares will be held. I'm now leaning much more towards holding because of the price action. Anyone that did not convert last spring, or summer is clearly holding out for a better price.
If we look at the timing of the only conversion thus far it was at the end of May 2024, after the drop off from the April high. I'd imagine that selling of those in advance of conversion was the proximate cause of that decline. Anyone that did not convert then clearly had a higher target price. Even if they had second thoughts they would have converted soon after 27 June when the in-specie distribution of the Seafox holding commenced. They didn't want to sell in to 17p then, so I doubt they would a year later with the relative time value that has cost. On the other hand, were I a warrant holder with a higher target price I would convert at the last minute because that is the most effective use of the money in that time.
Where I am cautious in that thesis is if the warrants are owned by banks rather than investors or money managers then they might have some whacky policy prescription. Those institutions are still about making money. The only people that can tell you are the current warrant holders, and they might not be the current holders at the last conversion date. |
What is the latest situation with the warrants?
Warrants for 83.5m shares @ 5.75p were outstanding as at 30 June 2024. Given the block listing application is there no way for us to track if any more of these are exercised?
Assuming the recent holdings RNSs are based on the correct number of total issued shares, then the total is unchanged at 1,070m, and no warrants have been exercised.
The warrants have a 30 June 2025 expiry date, so are we expecting all the warrants to be exercised in the next 5/6 months? Do we know who will hold the resulting shares and their intentions? |
As of 9th January they held 67,784,193 shares (as per RNS) - a drop of about 15.5m since 27th December.
One estimate :) is that they'll stop distributing at around 44,800,000 - another 23m to go then. |
Seafox 7.8% -> 6.3% after further distribution |
Don't know for sure that 15p is an attractive entry point for buyers but here we are again.
blusteradjuster 21 Dec '24 - 12:36 - 2727 of 2760
Definitely some buying interest at 15p. |
A Middle East oil group on the upgrade
This operator of liftboats has raised earnings guidance again, buoyed by a tight market, high utilisation rates and rising day rates |
Post 2756It's my understanding reading the RNS that HBJ only increased his holding due to Seafox share specie / distribution via IFH Limited. |
Thanks to Pauly Pilot - a great site, join
Paul’s Section:
Gulf Marine Services (GMS) - Paul holds
15.4p (pre-market) £164m - Debt Refinance Completed - Paul - GREEN
Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector…
There wasn’t really any doubt over this, but it reassures me that the refinancing is now completed -
“...is pleased to announce that it successfully completed the refinance of its debt, on December 30th 2024, as detailed in the Company's previous announcement on August 1st, 2024.
Alex Aclimandos, GMS Chief Financial Officer, commented:
"As described earlier, we are very happy to have secured this deal as it lowers our costs of borrowing and gives us more flexibility on capital allocation, reflecting the trust of the lenders."
Mansour Al Alami, GMS Executive Chairman, added:
"This new deal will allow us to proceed with our deleveraging plans and to continue to move value from lenders to shareholders."
Paul’s opinion - that last sentence sums up the investment case. As each month goes by, GMS is paying down its debt from prodigious cashflows, so all shareholders need to do is wait, and the company’s finances get stronger.
This has not been fully reflected in the share price yet, because there’s a seemingly endless flow of selling from the Seafox overhang.
Other bearish points might be that the low oil price could see M.Eastern demand reduce perhaps? Although the order book currently gives very good visibility.
I like the fact that GMS has diversified into offshore wind, where its vessels could be redeployed for only modest conversion cost (mgt told me on a call last year). One ship is already in Europe doing that.
Last year saw a series of encouraging trading updates, and broker upgrades. Some forecast data seems to show reducing forecasts, this looks like a data anomaly to me, as I’ve been following the detailed updates from Zeus (many thanks) available on Research Tree, and these have not been falling. It’s not always clear what other data goes into consensus numbers, and they can be unreliable for smaller caps if some out-of-date forecasts get jumbled up in the calculations.
Hopefully the new bank facilities should allow GMS to start paying divis. I think that’s important, and I would prefer some income from this share, and not hopefully management buying more ships and running up more debt, as this stuff can be horribly cyclical.
The last 9 months share price moves have been frustrating for shareholders, but zoom out and the bigger picture remains very positive - |
Share Tip: ‘the man who bought London’ has increased his stake in this ‘in demand’ Abu Dhabi-based offshore energy services supplier
The former Prime Minister of Qatar, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, is believed to have increased his stake in Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS), one of our 2025 selections.
‘HBJ’ who is believed to own over 3% of Deutsche Bank, has been referred to as ‘the man who bought London’ following the Sovereign Wealth Fund in Qatar that he was running having bought Harrods, the Shard, and amongst many other UK investments also being a partner in the development of One Hyde Park.
Known to be one of the wealthiest men in Qatar, HBJ is the owner of the widely circulated newspaper al-... |
zho, apologies I did not scroll all the way down, thanks for correcting me. That means Imperial took the entirety of the distribution noted by Seafox on 31 December, so that distribution is happening in a bit of a strange way. But whatever, by definition Seafox will at some point cease to distribute, either because it reaches a long term holding or because it reaches nil. |
By my calcs only about 1.4% of Seafox species remains going on the RNS 19th Dec. Is that correct? |
hpcg
If you scroll down the RNS it says:
"Imperial Financial Holdings Ltd has acquired on 24th December 2024 15224754 shares from Seafox International Ltd as part of a share distribution, as announced by Gulf Marine Services Plc on 19th December 2024" |
I don't necessarily think that jump can just be Seafox distribution, but without knowing the mechanics it is possible. Either way it is nice to see a counter argument to the proposition that those shareholders were only sellers. |
That holding announcement is just recording the shares received in specie from Seafox. Suggests that they are retaining what they are receiving, which is something I guess |
A little bump up there (late reporting though) from that rns with Imperial Financial Holdings Limited c/o Mr. Fady Bakhos, Al-MIRQab increasing.
More of that kind of buying and 16p will be under threat for the breakout. Some decent exchanges today, but not enough.
This wants to breakout and go higher. We all know it is being held back.
Show us some bangers to smash the sellers to allow that breakout.
Bangers and Smash!
All imo
DYOR |
On 17th December they announced:
"The company now anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be at the upper end of previous guidance of USD 98-100 million for 2024."
On 28th October they reported Q3 (end Sept 2024):
"The Group's continuous focus on deleveraging has resulted in net bank debt reduced by US$ 46.1 million to US$ 221.2 million"
Which suggests leverage will drop below 2x EBITDA during January 2025. |
Roland Head (Stockopedia):"I estimate the new package could result in a c.0.6% reduction in the interest rate being paid by GMS today, with a further reduction when leverage drops below 2x EBITDA. That could save c.$1.3m per year in debt costs, based on the last reported net debt of $234m. That's a useful saving for a company expected to report a net profit of c.$48m in 2025" |
Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector, is pleased to announce that it successfully completed the refinance of its debt, on December 30th 2024, as detailed in the Company's previous announcement on August 1st, 2024. |
Agree hpcg
Patient here too |
I do not want there to be buy backs (or dividends) until all the warrants have converted or expired. The warrant prospectus, available on the website, explains that warrant holders are kept whole by either of those distribution methods. I do accept that a share bought back at 16p made whole, is better than a share bought back at 18p, but as buybacks would raise the share price that outcome in pence per share diverges. This is but a 6 month wait, and I am patient :). |
I don't find it tedious. I find it wonderful. I wouldn't be able to buy at this level otherwise |
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