Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 10/10/2024 09:16

Volsung - it's good to read that. I had assumed there would be money waiting on the sidelines for an uptrend to emerge. I've been in that position many times myself.

[thebd11] 10/10/2024 08:48

That's consistent with my conversations with Alex and Mansour. That's also the level they begin to think about divs, buybacks in a more meaningful way and potentially capex

[hpcg] 10/10/2024 07:43

The company is 1-2 years ahead in degearing and EBITDA from what those of us discussing prospects in the summer 2023 considered might happen. Though to be fair we had moved it along 12 months ago as the company reported firmer rates. As EBITDA increases and debt declines the company should get to 1.5x before June 2025 I would have thought.

[volsung] 10/10/2024 07:34

Uppy downy in a mostly downy direction.
I will wait until its mostly uppy in a mostly uppy trend

[hpcg] 10/10/2024 07:10

This should be trading above NAV never mind at just over half. Events have gone better than when I put on a 28p price target for year end earlier this year. Debt is being repaid more quickly, the backlog much longer, and rates higher. There will be a lot of people not buying because of the supply we have seen in the last 6 months and especially last month, so we'll get some FOMO when that tap suddenly ends, but I think that might also hold the share price back somewhat until the company makes shareholder returns, which will attract a different class of investors.

[clem h fandango] 10/10/2024 07:06

Research note out from Zeus with similar info, also reiterating target of 29p.

[thebd11] 10/10/2024 06:53

Great news on the contract piece - and the extra vessel to Europe for offshore wind certainly helps offfset any cyclical / Middle East / oil price concerns. Bigger news, for me, is the debt reduction picking up the pace. Given the speed of paying off during July, August and September, (17.5m USD across the three months), and that EBITDA will likely be c95m-100 (as per updated guidance), the 2x threshold where the debt payment falls by 25bps could well be reached by early December. The PACE of debt reduction is increasing too. 1HCY24 saw 28.5m paid off, then the next 3 months saw 17.5, so a clear speeding up as increased day rates etc filter through. Notably, too, this rate is pinned to EIBOR, which is lower than the SOFR rate used to calculate previously. So where previously GMS was paying 300+ SOFR (which is currently 4.84%), GMS will (very shortly) be paying 225 + EIBOR (which is currently 4.73%). A fairly significant drop from, approx 7.84% interest to just under 7%.I am also still expecting an update (/upgrade) in the next month or so to 25E guidance, given that on the RNS from Sept 12, Alex noted "As for our guidance for 2025, we are in the process of revisiting it and shall share it with you in the next couple of months".

[horndean eagle] 08/10/2024 16:56

ST has been tipping gms for quite a while. He is probably re-iterating.

[sophia1982] 08/10/2024 16:03

Can you just say who tipped it in IC?

[hatfullofsky] 07/10/2024 20:39

Tipped in IC

[elsa7878] 07/10/2024 18:11

Encouraging to see a UAE fund take on 40 million shares, only another 40 million to go.

[cousinit] 07/10/2024 17:17

It may just be admin. eg Seafox instructed its custodian to distribute the shares to the custodian for each underlying holder. As those transactions complete the custodian reports a lower balance to Seafox and they, in turn, notify GMS.

[hpcg] 07/10/2024 16:58

I don't really understand the distribution mechanism. All I can think is happening is they they are distributing in lots to everyone that are the size of the smallest holding in Seafox. To explain further assume the Seafox holdings are:

a 5%
b 10%
c 15%
d 15%
e 20%
f 35%

They would first distribute 5% on the GMS shares to be distributed to all parties:

Afterwhich:
a 0%
b 5%
c 10%
d 10%
e 15%
f 30%

The advantage of this way in terms of fairness is that all sellers have equal access to the market, even if they are partial sellers. And so on for the next tranche until the largest holder or holders get the final tranche.

I'm encouraged we are nearing the end of the distribution process, and to have a holding notification at last.

Picked up some more today at 5.15. I haven't done much in the 14s but with both the distribution of the Seafox holding and the budget approaching fast the time factor is less of an issue IMO.

[zho] 07/10/2024 15:00

Yes - Seafox have transferred another block of shares as an in specie dividend, reducing from 18.4% to 14.2%.

If last week's action is a guide we'd expect a fair few of those to hit the market in the next couple of days.

[bloomberg2] 07/10/2024 14:44

https://x.com/rckhlldd/status/1843301160242835870?s=46

[stemis] 03/10/2024 13:17

Ok, cheers

[thebd11] 03/10/2024 12:39

From what I have heard, some of the holders (those to which GMS shares have / are being / will be distributed to) are a mixture of UHNWI family offices, and even the Qatari Royal Family (that last one is interesting as QE is a big customer of GMS). This is consistent with GS being one of the houses selling the shares yesterday - despite never having played in a name this small. Makes sense that GS would look after money and affairs for some of these UHNW family office types, so that checks out. APPEARS (though I'm at risk of looking even more silly than usual) that the overhang in the short term has cleared a touch, and vols returning to something like normal.

[hpcg] 03/10/2024 12:18

Stemis - I don't know what his holding is now but there were significant corporate events in at least 2009 and 2014 that would have diluted his stake.

[zho] 03/10/2024 12:17

Cordia Group acquired Seafox in 2005.

Seafox then merged with (or was bought by) Millennium Offshore in 2014

Millennium Offshore is owned by HM MOS International:

"The Principal investors in HM MOS International Limited include, amongst others, a GCC Sovereign Wealth Fund, MENA Regional Family Offices and also MENA Regional High Net Worth Individuals."

[stemis] 03/10/2024 11:16

I though Cordia owned Seafox

[ggrantsu] 01/10/2024 13:01

whites...

always nice to read a comment where an obviously calm investor lays out the simplicity to a thesis. at the end of the day, this is a company where the fundamentals are booming. investors are being given an extraordinary chance to top up at c.14p and a 50% discount to NAV (with leverage reducing quickly, that is a very conservative way to look at the discount!).

horrible to wake up and see yourself losing thousands. but this should be a situation where those with patience and nerves are rewarded handsomely.

[phowdo] 01/10/2024 11:48

From todays TR1

"This is not a sale of GMS Shares by Seafox, it is transfer of shares as a part of the 150m GMS share Distribution to Seafox Shareholders which will take place over the next few weeks and as per 4th Sept RNS Number: 7900C."

Looks like the overhang will persist for the "next few weeks". Ive got some buy orders in at quite cheeky prices. Illiquidity often equals opportunity.

[whites123] 01/10/2024 11:40

Im a buyer and supporter of GMS Gulf Marine Services for several reasons, especially considering recent selling activity by Seafox, via distribution, which presents a strategic opportunity for investors.
The offshore support vessel sector, providing critical services to the oil and gas, and renewable energy industries, is experiencing renewed growth due to rising energy demand and global energy transitions.

The ongoing selling by Seafox (By Distribution) a key shareholder, could be seen as a short-term negative. However, this presents a valuable opportunity for the market as shares transition from investors with little confidence (or strategic interest) in holding, to those who are bullish on GMS’s long-term potential. This transfer of shares is going to lead to a more committed shareholder base, driving stronger price support and stability.

With a leaner cost structure and improving industry fundamentals, GMS is positioned for growth, and the shift of shares into stronger hands sets the stage for enhanced investor focus and performance gains.

Never thought I would be presented with an opportunity to top up at these kind of levels. So happy to be adding.

[elsa7878] 01/10/2024 11:22

hpcg1 Oct '24 - 12:15 - 2527 of 2528.

Sure but the fact is that the shares are hitting the market immediately or so it seems hence the high volume the last 3 days.
The sooner they're out the better.
It doesn't mean GMS can't buy them in. Just say to their broker they'll buy everything at 15p or under and it's all dealt with.

Nb I've bought a lot today to add to my holding and will add as it goes lower.

Seriously half of NAV....(29p).

[elsa7878] 01/10/2024 11:19

xxx1 Oct '24 - 12:10 - 2525 of 2526

It's all about the bank covenants. As things stand I understand they will not move until the later part of 2025.
Bonkers. Buy back the shares now for a pittance (take Seafox out at 14p or whatever). Hugely accretive to earnings and doubtless therefore to their bonus pot. Surely they can see that!? The plus also for us poor shareholders we watch this rocket back to 20p.