Late to the party is an interesting concept. I was "late to the party" in Funding Circle earlier this year at circa 80p. It could have been bought at 28p just a few months before, or more realistically at 45p after they had announced their first share repurchase programme. Since then it is up circa 75%. I used to be really put of buying shares that had made big gains, or those breaking new highs, but that is utterly ridiculous as those are two traits of successful companies. Late can be much safer, which is a reason some investors are deliberately late. The reason the shares might be at, let's say 35p in 12 months time, is that buyers can still see a runway to go returns. |
Easy to say looking in the rear view mirror! They made a nice profit before it fell away ! Selling into a rising trend not bad business |
hpcg thank you for your thoughtful response.
I broadly agree with your fair value prediction, and timescale. I was late to the "party" and so have an average cost of around 17p. I wouldn`t dream of selling (unlesss there is a sustained downturn in the newsflow) I hope to start top-slicing in spring 2026 - after 2025 results are published - in the mid to high 30´s.
There, that´s set me up for rear-mirror review later on :) |
 Tourist2020 - I think Dowgate did sell in the spring, well at least presumably some at that peak. They can't have shifted them all at that price, but perhaps they were selling above 22p or something, and just carried on until they were out? I think a couple of posters here also sold.
I chose not to sell because by that time GMS had moved into a different part of my portfolio allocation. As fair value is increasing all the time because of the ongoing debt repayments it has gone from bare knuckle ride to predictable growth. To echo seroserio fair value will be about 38-40p in 14 months time. In the spring that forward value was the same but the time to get there was instead 20 months and the percentage gain somewhat less than a doubling. Nevertheless a 66% gain over 20 months was easily sufficient to justify hanging around for.
Arguably forward fair value may be higher than I suggest as rates are better, the forward bookings are longer and stronger, interest rates are lower, refinance is sooner. Then come mid next year and tangible shareholder returns start and whole new set of investors will get engaged. And the Seafox large holding has now been sold or dispersed, leaving just one outsize holder. |
Re. the Dowgate interview ....
A bit self-contradictory when he says they have sold because it has hit their fair value estimate and that they are "disciplined" about executing both ends of the trade according to the plan.
So why didn`t they sell when it was at 24p in April of this year? |
Just for the record, not that it matters, been in these for some time since hpcg pointed them out at around 6p and expect doubling from here whatever hot money decides to do. |
WJG looks interesting? Great interview |
Dowgate FM discusses GMS from 17:50 |
Closed and auctioned at the high of the day. This is going to print such an archetypal modern Elliot Wave 3 stage advance. |
Tip sheet brigade and followers providing a buzz. |
Plenty of buy orders on the book, but as predicted the supply isn't there any more. |
15p and 17s my entry price !! Looking forward to share buy backs and return to Divi payment |
Looking very strong Bloomberg, been buying all morning. Hopefully breeze past 20p without much trouble! |
Looking like another strong finish |
Yup, strong finish |
Encouraging to see it has closed at the high of the day with good volume. |
Closing up near to the day's high. There still seems to be reasonable availability though in the 18s. Potential investors are going to have to decide when to join because sellers no longer have the internal justification of a falling price to set against strong fundamentals. |
Wow! Re rate developing |
C.mon the POS !! |
Excellent coverage hpcg |
A modicum of FOMO starting to appear on the book now. It is perhaps dawning on investors that they have no hope of paying under 15p now, and that is probably the case for 16p and perhaps 17p too now. The latter is yet to be determined, the close today and the rest of the week are important. |
The book has really shrunk today, hence the firm price. Agree with you hatfullofsky, when the last RNS is released that probably signals the tap is turned off, not one final opportunity. The better strategy was demonstrably to buy after the first Seafox distribution was made. The low was in immediately before the second announcement.
Mind you, each to their own, I can also see the attraction of waiting for the uptrend to be confirmed, which I guess is a close above 17.5. Quite decent to have taken a 15% overhang off the agenda in a month and a half. |
High risk strategy that. |
I'm waiting for the RNS to state Seafox are down to 10% - which is what they said they would stay at after distributing the rest of their holdings.
Last RNS said they were on 12.91%. |
Yes I agree entirely hpcg |
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