So basically any fundamentals are going to be largely ignored until June 25. |
They are being sold in the foreground as well!I wouldn't believe buy/sell indicators on advfn. |
So do you think they're being sold in the background?
Visible volume says buys almost 2 x sells. |
It's nothing to do with fundamentals. The announce tells you exactly what the lid on the share price is - 50 odd million of 5p warrants still to flog.Take it as a pause where you can accumulate at will until the overhang clears. |
Even so, 3 x guidance upgrades, broker upgrade, debt reducing, finance agreed, shareholder returns policy initiated, and yet here we are. |
There is still going to be a small SF distribution left to churn out |
I don't know why they even bother upping guidance, this market never rewards them, pretty much every RNS is initially acknowledged and then falls away.
If this was a ftse 250 company upping guidance, it would hold its rise despite any selling. |
Forward fundamentals on this looking very cheap.
Market cap is gonna be higher than the reducing debt soon enough.
Very encouraging update. |
I think they should have made the announcement after budget day personally. We know the gist anyway, but right now it will be sold into. |
Pre budget Brucie bonus |
Very nice update |
Premium beeks
Ask that in 30 mins !!! |
Jsg, is it still tedious? |
 Panmure have raised their TP from 26p to 30p following a visit to GMS Endeavour.
(The GMS website shows a picture of Endeavour installing (?) a wind turbine. It's currently moored at Larne, Northern Ireland.
)
Text from note copied from LSE:
With offshore wind sector capacity set to more than double by 2030, we see increased demand for GMS vessels in this sector. This offers an implicit counter cyclical hedge to the traditional oil & gas sector, and we see this as offering greater opportunities in the future for GMS
The European wind sector is growing exponentially, with commissioned capacity forecast to reach 98GW by 2030 – well above the current commissioned capacity of 35GW. The UK has the greatest commissioned capacity in Europe at present (at 14.7GW), with a further 6.3GW currently under construction.....the growth across the wind sector will present huge opportunities to companies involved in any aspect of the sector. Consequently, it is clear that the demand for vessels to support the installation and maintenance of offshore windfarms is set to remain very strong in the coming years, with availability of vessels – such as GMS E-class vessels - likely to be a limiting factor. We believe that this latent demand increase will deliver higher day rates for vessels operating in Europe. Putting this into context, GMS Endeavour is averaging around five days per maintenance cycle per turbine (i.e. c60 turbines each year). With more than 2000 turbines already in place across the UK and Europe, it is clear that there is vast potential for long term maintenance contracts.
....the renewables market offers material growth upside for GMS. This is due to the sheer amount of demand that will come from new installations and by extension, maintenance required across the European offshore wind sector. We see this as offering greater scope for GMS to secure further contracts with major windfarm operators
Target price raised from 26p to 30p |
Yep trading update was first week on November last year. They said they would update 2025 forecasts within 2 months in September which you can work out revenue with contract update and latest presentation slides. |
This is becoming so tedious and predictable now |
Late to the party is an interesting concept. I was "late to the party" in Funding Circle earlier this year at circa 80p. It could have been bought at 28p just a few months before, or more realistically at 45p after they had announced their first share repurchase programme. Since then it is up circa 75%. I used to be really put of buying shares that had made big gains, or those breaking new highs, but that is utterly ridiculous as those are two traits of successful companies. Late can be much safer, which is a reason some investors are deliberately late. The reason the shares might be at, let's say 35p in 12 months time, is that buyers can still see a runway to go returns. |
Easy to say looking in the rear view mirror! They made a nice profit before it fell away ! Selling into a rising trend not bad business |
hpcg thank you for your thoughtful response.
I broadly agree with your fair value prediction, and timescale. I was late to the "party" and so have an average cost of around 17p. I wouldn`t dream of selling (unlesss there is a sustained downturn in the newsflow) I hope to start top-slicing in spring 2026 - after 2025 results are published - in the mid to high 30´s.
There, that´s set me up for rear-mirror review later on :) |
Tourist2020 - I think Dowgate did sell in the spring, well at least presumably some at that peak. They can't have shifted them all at that price, but perhaps they were selling above 22p or something, and just carried on until they were out? I think a couple of posters here also sold.
I chose not to sell because by that time GMS had moved into a different part of my portfolio allocation. As fair value is increasing all the time because of the ongoing debt repayments it has gone from bare knuckle ride to predictable growth. To echo seroserio fair value will be about 38-40p in 14 months time. In the spring that forward value was the same but the time to get there was instead 20 months and the percentage gain somewhat less than a doubling. Nevertheless a 66% gain over 20 months was easily sufficient to justify hanging around for.
Arguably forward fair value may be higher than I suggest as rates are better, the forward bookings are longer and stronger, interest rates are lower, refinance is sooner. Then come mid next year and tangible shareholder returns start and whole new set of investors will get engaged. And the Seafox large holding has now been sold or dispersed, leaving just one outsize holder. |
Re. the Dowgate interview ....
A bit self-contradictory when he says they have sold because it has hit their fair value estimate and that they are "disciplined" about executing both ends of the trade according to the plan.
So why didn`t they sell when it was at 24p in April of this year? |
Just for the record, not that it matters, been in these for some time since hpcg pointed them out at around 6p and expect doubling from here whatever hot money decides to do. |
WJG looks interesting? Great interview |
Dowgate FM discusses GMS from 17:50 |
Closed and auctioned at the high of the day. This is going to print such an archetypal modern Elliot Wave 3 stage advance. |
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