Low key new contract announcement today and muted reaction .... |
HPCG
Agreed re. reference to June 25 but this is a backstop date. If the new facilities are put in place prior to year-end, which the Board say they expect, then the warrants must be issued and exercised before or on the date of the new facilities (by logic the expiry of the existing facility).
I therefore expect warrants to be issued and exercised in Nov/Dec for some 83,5m shares. Whether those shares are sold or not remains to be seen. If some are not exercised for "religious" reasons, then thats a bonus but I am not counting on it.
As you have pointed out previously, there do seem to be sellers appearing every time we get into the 19-20p zone but these are not the "warrrant-holder" sellers. That`s still to come, is my read. |
Jsg123 - Whilst we await the budget there will still be people selling ahead. Note the warrants expire on refinance so I expect the banks in the refinance, some of whom have warrants, will want to shift them all prior to then. |
I'm in no hurry to sell and my thinking is even at 18 that should provide a decent yield when capital returns start.
But at the same time it's hugely frustrating and almost enticing people to just trade it. |
Depends how much you are looking to make. It's already gone from mid 14p to 20p in a very short period. What are you wanting? |
So basically any fundamentals are going to be largely ignored until June 25. |
They are being sold in the foreground as well!I wouldn't believe buy/sell indicators on advfn. |
So do you think they're being sold in the background?
Visible volume says buys almost 2 x sells. |
It's nothing to do with fundamentals. The announce tells you exactly what the lid on the share price is - 50 odd million of 5p warrants still to flog.Take it as a pause where you can accumulate at will until the overhang clears. |
Even so, 3 x guidance upgrades, broker upgrade, debt reducing, finance agreed, shareholder returns policy initiated, and yet here we are. |
There is still going to be a small SF distribution left to churn out |
I don't know why they even bother upping guidance, this market never rewards them, pretty much every RNS is initially acknowledged and then falls away.
If this was a ftse 250 company upping guidance, it would hold its rise despite any selling. |
Forward fundamentals on this looking very cheap.
Market cap is gonna be higher than the reducing debt soon enough.
Very encouraging update. |
I think they should have made the announcement after budget day personally. We know the gist anyway, but right now it will be sold into. |
Pre budget Brucie bonus |
Very nice update |
Premium beeks
Ask that in 30 mins !!! |
Jsg, is it still tedious? |
 Panmure have raised their TP from 26p to 30p following a visit to GMS Endeavour.
(The GMS website shows a picture of Endeavour installing (?) a wind turbine. It's currently moored at Larne, Northern Ireland.
)
Text from note copied from LSE:
With offshore wind sector capacity set to more than double by 2030, we see increased demand for GMS vessels in this sector. This offers an implicit counter cyclical hedge to the traditional oil & gas sector, and we see this as offering greater opportunities in the future for GMS
The European wind sector is growing exponentially, with commissioned capacity forecast to reach 98GW by 2030 – well above the current commissioned capacity of 35GW. The UK has the greatest commissioned capacity in Europe at present (at 14.7GW), with a further 6.3GW currently under construction.....the growth across the wind sector will present huge opportunities to companies involved in any aspect of the sector. Consequently, it is clear that the demand for vessels to support the installation and maintenance of offshore windfarms is set to remain very strong in the coming years, with availability of vessels – such as GMS E-class vessels - likely to be a limiting factor. We believe that this latent demand increase will deliver higher day rates for vessels operating in Europe. Putting this into context, GMS Endeavour is averaging around five days per maintenance cycle per turbine (i.e. c60 turbines each year). With more than 2000 turbines already in place across the UK and Europe, it is clear that there is vast potential for long term maintenance contracts.
....the renewables market offers material growth upside for GMS. This is due to the sheer amount of demand that will come from new installations and by extension, maintenance required across the European offshore wind sector. We see this as offering greater scope for GMS to secure further contracts with major windfarm operators
Target price raised from 26p to 30p |
Yep trading update was first week on November last year. They said they would update 2025 forecasts within 2 months in September which you can work out revenue with contract update and latest presentation slides. |
This is becoming so tedious and predictable now |
Late to the party is an interesting concept. I was "late to the party" in Funding Circle earlier this year at circa 80p. It could have been bought at 28p just a few months before, or more realistically at 45p after they had announced their first share repurchase programme. Since then it is up circa 75%. I used to be really put of buying shares that had made big gains, or those breaking new highs, but that is utterly ridiculous as those are two traits of successful companies. Late can be much safer, which is a reason some investors are deliberately late. The reason the shares might be at, let's say 35p in 12 months time, is that buyers can still see a runway to go returns. |
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