Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 15:57

Turvart - this company is worth an utterly HUGE fortune.But only on trade sale.Bigdog and others here on LSE PUTUP for example are not investors - they are paid to inhibit retail sentiment. Keeping the share price suppressed pre sale.That will be a Black Swan event.

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 15:57

He's a con artist

[bigdog5] 23/7/2022 15:54

harriet7, "and stopped all the "BOD are lying to you " allegations".

I note you're putting your words into my posts yet again. I don't believe I've ever used the words and phrase the "BOD are lying to you".

So tell us all harriet7 where are the barrels that Kozel bragged about? Why aren't they to be seen in any of the CPR's? Shouldn't they be seen in said CPR's like at other oil companies?

[turvart] 23/7/2022 15:48

Broadford bay, I would like to meet you in reality and you tell this all to my face instead of hiding behind a monitor.

[highlander7] 23/7/2022 15:05

oil_investor 21 Apr '16 - 19:39 - 481885 of 658724

nestoframpers: thanks. I saw your earlier post on this the other week but didn't comment on it.

John Stafford told the PESGB in July 2013 the the Jurassic was "pretty much shot to pieces" with fractures and added "but that's a good thing". His previous employer (who he appointed lol) then said that 0.4% fracture porosity was the highest they had ever seen, but John Gerstenlauer (sitting next to John Stafford) then ridiculed them, saying that "you can find 0.8% in the literature". In fact, you can find fracture porosities which are way higher than that...there is primary fracture porosity, which is the volume of cracks resulting from the initial splintering of the rock, and then there is secondary porosity. The latter is where the cracks are opened-up by acidic water, forming dissolution slots...and this can then lead to vugular (holes) and cavernous (caves) porosity.

If you imagine a 1000-metre oil column, with 1% porosity, that gives 63 million barrels of liquid oil per square kilometre of reservoir, less say about a 10% fill factor reduction, so about 55 million barrels per square kilometre. So taking into account the area of Shaikan, we get more than 6 billion barrels. However, not all of the Jurassic is fractured to the same extent, because there are bands within it which aren't brittle. So if one backs it off a bit to allow for that, you can get to the John Stafford-derived 6bn per 1% delta.

One of the issues with the FP, as you go up into the higher range, is how homogenous the fracturing is. And it varies, along both axes. There are reservoirs internationally which gave FPs as high as 10% (or occasionally more) but it's not a figure which can be applied to the entire reservoir rock volume.

There are some invaluable triangulations. These are:

1. the views of experts other than ERC (several have been consulted)

2. John Stafford's PESGB slides, the content of which the KRG and MOL approved for release even though the slides themselves have not been released

3. other comments etc. by GKP people.

All three of these disagree with ERC.

Looking at #2, John Stafford said at the PESGB that the Connected Volume in the Jurassic was c. 13 billion barrels. That represents the volume which is "responding" during test. It excludes oil which is by-passed. The Radius of Investigation had been measured on a 2188 hour test to be 31,700 feet (9.7 kilometres) so the entire Shaikan structure is basically interconnected. Gulf have said that recently in presentations. The permeability is stated as 12,000 mD, which is huge, being 12 Darcy.

My guess fwiw is that the recoverable oil in the Jurassic is probably quite some way above the ERC assessment. However the Connected Volume, assuming the figure in the PESGB presentation was about right, would act as a limit.

In my opinion, Jon Ferrier might consider saying "a fresh assessment done by another firm who are experienced in highly-fractured gas-drive gravity drainage reservoirs is required".

btw if anyone wants the PESGB material, call John Stafford, not myself. I have spoken to someone who was there that evening but I am not Gulf's publisher.

[nestoframpers] 23/7/2022 14:53

Re "The Transient Drainage Radius is 6 miles"

that was going by a 2188 hour test so is more that that , se post 481885

[highlander7] 23/7/2022 13:51

I notice she has stopped calling us all "morons" and stopped all the "BOD are lying to you " allegations.

LOL

[eyesandears] 23/7/2022 13:21

Troll Dog working hard as I predicted. Ask yourself why? Bin the rubbish.

[bigdog5] 23/7/2022 12:53

harriet, The "very conservative" CPR was how long ago, 8-10 years?

Since then how many wells have been drilled 10/11? They tell you they understand the field so how is it they haven't increased the numbers? I maintain they clearly don't and the evidence is they found water at S12 where they clearly thought there was oil.

I would have thought that investors would want to know exactly why subsequent CPR's haven't increased the Reserves. Many of you have said "the next CPR will give the true number" or "we need an accurate figure". There's been at least four CPR's and the numbers are still falling despite more wells drilled. They've even moved 2P Reserves out and into "Resources". And yet you rampers still cling to all the stuff that h7 and Carroll posted earlier today which I maintain is old and irrelevant data as evidenced by all the problems in trying to achieve 55k a day.

So where are all the "old data" barrels that Kozel bragged about that haven't been discovered? Over the years you rampers have stated "they're being kept secret" or the hosts want them "kept secret". Why?

[jackpotjack] 23/7/2022 11:54

Transition from O&G... that need to sort out their O&G first.Not sure what they are transitioning too... high risk holidays?

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 11:41

The reason the likes of ?$%Dog post 28,000 times, along with all the other sentiment inhibiting posters here and at LSE , here is because they are paid to constantly introduce , doubt and fear into retail holders new or old.This is how BlackRock etc have built such huge cheap stakes pre a Black Swan massive multiple takeover.

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 11:41

Turvart - this company is worth an utterly HUGE fortune.But only on trade sale.Bigdog and others here on LSE PUTUP for example are not investors - they are paid to inhibit retail sentiment. Keeping the share price suppressed pre sale.That will be a Black Swan event.

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 11:41

Broadfraud, another con artist

[highlander7] 23/7/2022 11:17

RTK we LTH all know whats going on here. The Q is how much longer can they keep this up ?

There also has to be a KRG/ICG compromise because time is running out for them both and this OP isnt going to last for ever. If they want to make the time for a transition from O&G then they had all better get a move on.

H7

[releasethekraken] 23/7/2022 11:00

H when Ferrier upgraded reserves the share price fellLol.

[highlander7] 23/7/2022 10:58

Brokers and analysts only value a company based on (a) the information they are given or (b) A value requested by paying clients.

Thats why brokers are usually wrong.

If you dont know that Sarah then no wonder you lost a fortune.

H7

[highlander7] 23/7/2022 10:42

"If they know they have them (barrels) why aren't they recorded in the CPR's as it would add value to the company and SP?"

"These barrels " Sarah

Why are you asking me ? E mail the Company and ask them yourself. Since you dont seem able to figure it out for yourself.

The original CPR was "Very Conservative" according to GKP and was issued only for listing purposes. How many times do you need this explained to you ?

Idiot indeed as Habshan would say.

H7

[giant_canine] 23/7/2022 10:26

"Shaikan is world-class" - Jon Ferrier

"Shaikan will produce for 80 to 100 years" - John Gerstenlauer

"The Reserves are huge and real" - Tony Peart

"GKP have billions of barrels of recoverable barrels" - colleague of Tony Peart

"I joined GKP because of the asset" - Jon Ferrier

"The Transient Drainage Radius is 6 miles" - John Stafford

"Shaikan will produce beyond the lives of our grandchildren" - Jon Ferrier

"The oil hasn't gone anywhere" - John Gerstenlauer

"An extra 0.2% Fracture Porosity would add 800 million barrels to Reserves overnight" - John Stafford

"Shaikan is second only to Kirkuk" - John Hurst, Exploration Director Genel Energy

[giant_canine] 23/7/2022 10:25

The reason the likes of ?$%Dog post 28,000 times, along with all the other sentiment inhibiting posters here and at LSE , here is because they are paid to constantly introduce , doubt and fear into retail holders new or old.
This is how BlackRock etc have built such huge cheap stakes pre a Black Swan massive multiple takeover.

[giant_canine] 23/7/2022 10:25

Turvart - this company is worth an utterly HUGE fortune.

But only on trade sale.

Bigdog and others here on LSE PUTUP for example are not investors - they are paid to inhibit retail sentiment. Keeping the share price suppressed pre sale.

That will be a Black Swan event.

[bigdog5] 23/7/2022 10:23

If there are all the Kozel billions of barrels there h7 why aren't they in any of the CPR's?

[giant_canine] 23/7/2022 10:23

The reason the likes of ?$%Dog post 28,000 times, along with all the other sentiment inhibiting posters here and at LSE , here is because they are paid to constantly introduce , doubt and fear into retail holders new or old.
This is how BlackRock etc have built such huge cheap stakes pre a Black Swan massive multiple takeover.

[giant_canine] 23/7/2022 10:22

Turvart - this company is worth an utterly HUGE fortune.

But only on trade sale.

Bigdog and others here on LSE PUTUP for example are not investors - they are paid to inhibit retail sentiment. Keeping the share price suppressed pre sale.

That will be a Black Swan event.