Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[thebabe] 02/2/2022 11:46

What investors should be asking is why there have been no recent IN Market buyback programs.

I believe this is most likely why - they can't, as a deal agreed or otherwise is close by:
An open mkt buyback is prohibited.


UK TAKEOVER CODE ( which the Co in byelaw has resolved to conform too)

FRUSTRATING ACTION/DEFENSIVE MEASURES BY THE TARGET
From the time when it has reason to believe that a bona fide offer may be imminent
(irrespective of whether that offer is welcomed by the Target or not), the Target may not
take any action which could result in that offer being frustrated or in shareholders being
denied an opportunity to decide the offer on its merits.
This rule does not apply where the action is either: (i) pursuant to a pre-existing contract
(i.e. one which was entered into at a time when the Target board did not have any reason
to believe a genuine offer was imminent); or (ii) approved by Target shareholders.
Frustrating action could include the issue of shares or convertibles, a share buy-back, the
issue or grant of options, agreeing to sell, dispose of or acquire material assets or entering
into contracts outside the ordinary course of business. If there is a pre-existing obligation
to take any such action, the Panel must be consulted. The payment of abnormal interim
dividends and improvements in the terms of service of the directors may also be caught by
this rule.
This prohibition on frustrating action does not stop the Target board from encouraging
shareholders not to accept the offer if it believes that the offer should be on more
favourable terms

[goatcam] 02/2/2022 11:46

Haha exactly P2. What’s the point in paying for the legal team to add that in if it can’t even apply to GKP.

[pensioner2] 02/2/2022 11:43

That doesn't stack up, nobull. If it was true why would they bother having the resolution passed?

[thebabe] 02/2/2022 11:40

NoBull - you are incorrect. Bermuda registered companies are not bound by listing rules, certainly not in off market transactions.
There is no reason at all why the company could not agree with a third party to purchase a lump of stock from them, at a future date and agreed price.
And there could be several third parties.
All they needed was their own shareholders to agree to such transactions , and they got that agreement via resolution to amend bye laws in June 2019.


.....................................................................................

Correct TK.

They gave themselves authority in June 2019 to buy their own stock , “on any terms the board saw fit”

The most obvious value accretive strategy they could use given the obvious huge value of the company at TO.

Of course not requiring any new resolution ie shareholder mandate , or need to inform the market, when/how , made it the cheapest way to acquire as much stock as possible as cheaply as possible over a long period.

[nobull] 02/2/2022 11:25

"Correct TK." Talking to yourself Paul.

"Of course not requiring any new resolution ie shareholder mandate , or need to inform the market, when/how , made it the cheapest way to acquire as much stock as possible as cheaply as possible over a long period."

I think you will find that they are bound by the listing rules, because our shares (or depositary interests) trade on the LSE.

[beernut] 02/2/2022 11:04

This could help oil price

US to send warship and fighter jets to UAE after Yemen attacks


Issued on: 02/02/2022 - 10:50
The guided-missile destroyer USS Cole (DDG 67) from the U.S. Navy.
The guided-missile destroyer USS Cole (DDG 67) from the U.S. Navy. © AP via U.S. Navy (archives)
Text by:
NEWS WIRES
2 min
The United States will deploy a guided missile destroyer and state-of-the-art fighter jets to help defend the United Arab Emirates after a series of missile attacks by Yemeni rebels, a US statement said Wednesday.

[releasethekraken] 02/2/2022 11:03

Correct TK.They gave themselves authority in June 2019 to buy their own stock , "on any terms the board saw fit"The most obvious value accretive strategy they could use given the obvious huge value of the company at TO.Of course not requiring any new resolution ie shareholder mandate , or need to inform the market, when/how , made it the cheapest way to acquire as much stock as possible as cheaply as possible over a long period.

[releasethekraken] 02/2/2022 10:59

https://twitter.com/chicagojack5/status/1488108778046242819?s=21

[nobull] 02/2/2022 10:48

FFS, what do they need to use a 'proxy' for to buy in shares for cancellation? You are beginning to sound like all "cloak and dagger conspiracy theory" nonsense. The listing rules of the London Stock Exchange apply to buybacks, so they have to be RNSed.

Why do you think the absence of disclosure requirements in the Bermuda Companies Acts means GKP can do all this cloak and dagger nonsense? What makes the Bermuda Companies Acts trump the listing rules?

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 02/2/2022 10:14

The transition to new FDP is the perfect time for ownership to transfer to serious operator's..Money? Well they should have used a proxy to buy shares in for the past 2.5 years.The excess cash(possibly plus new debt) will pay for these shares.The shares cancelled and the profits of remaining holders concentrated even higher.

[1waving] 02/2/2022 09:19

nestoframpers1 Feb '22 - 20:15 - 648600 of 648615
0 1 0
Re EW I think the new one of 5 up started on the 20th Dec.
-------

Seems a bit early but could be.

From the completion of 5 waves up to mid October 2021 ( a major wave ONE ? ), there has been an A wave down and a B wave up, which seems to be capped around 226p at the moment. It would be more normal for a C wave down before the start of any further major upward action.

See what happens after going XD next Thursday.

[nestoframpers] 02/2/2022 09:07

You'd have thought that with these ex divi on 11th they'd be flying out like hot cakes , people are dim it appears.

[nestoframpers] 02/2/2022 08:58

Yes doesn't make sense that the KRG are stalling on the development of Shaikan while GKP grow fat with cash.

[pensioner2] 02/2/2022 08:35

The question gets louder as Brent climbs higher. What are we going to do with all this money? It would be nice to think it will come back to us as dividends but that doesn't seem realistic in perpetuity. There must be a plan beyond dividends. Where's that FDP approval?

[beernut] 02/2/2022 06:52

I’m fairly sure once the president is chosen he then allows gov formation.

Meetings yesterday must have gone well. Gla

[beernut] 02/2/2022 06:49

Hostage zebari of Kurdistan

The Shiite Coordination Framework to vote for Hosyar Zebari for the Iraqi Presidency, KDP advisor says
Iraq News
Hoshyar Zebari
Coordination Framework
2022-02-01 18:26
A-
A
A+
Shafaq News/ The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) expects the Shiite Coordination Framework to vote for Hoshyar Zebari as the republic's next president.

Masoud Haidar, the KDP head Masrour Barzani's advisor, said on Twitter, "We expect the Framework to take a positive position and vote for Hoshyar Zebari for the presidency."

Haidar said that the Framework would vote for the KDP member as a response to President Barzani's initiative and the favorable positions of the leader of the Sadrist Movement Muqtada al-Sadr and the efforts of the Sunni component led by Muhammad al-Halbousi and Khamis al-Khanjar.

Earlier, in light of the head of KDP's initiative, a meeting was held among the President of Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Muhammad al-Halbousi, the Head of Al-Siyada Coalition, Khamis Al-Khanjar, and the leader of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr.

Leader Barzani said his initiative aimed "to address the problems and prepare a suitable political environment as well as remove the obstacles hindering the political process in Iraq."

Tension has been raised between the two main Kurdish parties regarding the Presidency's post.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) nominated Barham Salih, a decision which was rejected by its rival, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Instead, the KDP nominated former foreign and finance minister Hoshyar Zebari.

A long-standing agreement among the Kurds usually sees a PUK nominee installed as president, while the KDP is left to run the Kurdistan region.

But the KDP is seeking to adjust the accounts after securing 31 seats in the 329-seat parliament in October's election, while the Kurdistan Alliance, led by the PUK, won only 17 seats.

[beernut] 02/2/2022 06:42

New Energy Deals Are Transforming Geopolitics In The Middle East

By Simon Watkins - Feb 01, 2022, 6:00 PM CST
China has been attempting to expand its One Belt, One Road project through the Middle East by heavy funding of energy projects in the region.
Ever since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the U.S. has attempted to gain influence in the Middle East in order to ensure the security of oil.
A new pan-Arab power grid could hurt the ambitions of both the U.S. and China in the region, with the potential of even Iran being included in the alliance.
Join Our Community

A core strategy of both the U.S. and China in securing the dominant influence in the Middle East is to hold sway over the region’s basic power supplies. The most obvious evidence of this in recent years are the various attempts by the U.S. (including the ‘relationship normalization deal’ program, direct funding to governments, and sanctions, among others) to stop Chinese regional proxy, Iran, from building out its influence across the region through electricity supply contracts and infrastructure expansion. On the other hand, China has done its utmost to counter these U.S. initiatives, primarily through heavy funding of projects connected to its ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) project that involve extensive on-the-ground presence in the countries receiving the money, as analyzed in-depth in my new book on the global oil markets. A swathe of new project announcements in the last week or so point to a greater impetus on both sides, but also perhaps to the regeneration of the idea of a pan-Arab alliance across the region, including Iran as well, that would scupper the regional ambitions of both the U.S. and China.

In terms of the specific deals, last week saw Lebanon sign a deal with Jordan that will see Lebanon provided with 150 megawatts (MW) from midnight to 6 a.m. local time and 250 MW throughout the day to alleviate chronic power shortages in the country, according to various local news reports. The deal is set to begin after all financing arrangements have been concluded with the World Bank within the next two months. Additional resources for power will come from Egypt, which has agreed in principle to send gas to a power station in northern Lebanon for this purpose. Interestingly, this entire deal involving Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt – and Syria as well, as electricity will be transmitted across that country too – was put together by the U.S., not Iran, and not China.

[beernut] 02/2/2022 06:16

Surprise Crude Draw Suggests Tighter Oil Market

By Julianne Geiger - Feb 01, 2022, 3:41 PM CST

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated the inventory draw this week for crude oil to be 1.645 barrels after analysts predicted a build of 1.833 million barrels.

U.S. crude inventories shed some 76 million barrels since the start of 2021, and about 19 million barrels since the start of 2020.

In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 872,000 barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 400,000 barrels.

Oil prices were trading down on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release, easing off of the gains realized on Monday despite geopolitical concerns and strong demand.


WTI was trading down 0.06% at $88.10 on the day at 2:26 p.m. EST but still up roughly $3 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading down by 0.20% at $89.08 $88.13 on the day and up roughly $1 per barrel on the week.



U.S. oil production continues to climb. For the week ending January 21—the last week for which the Energy Information Administration has provided data—crude oil production in the United States slipped 100,000 bpd to 11.6 million bpd. This is down 1.5 million bpd from the pre-pandemic era.

This week, the API reported yet another build in gasoline inventories at 5.816 million barrels for the week ending January 28—on top of the previous week's 2.4 million barrel build.

[highlander7] 02/2/2022 05:30

Bloomberg....

Despite the near-universal agreement over the need to reduce global emissions, Big Oil is likely to get richer before it gets poorer. Today, notes Liam Denning, Exxon “announced its best financial results in many years.” Part of the reason for the surprisingly rosy short-term outlook for fossil fuels, notes David Fickling, is (spoiler alert) China. Yes, it is using more renewables, he says, but it is also using more energy — a lot more. How will it meet demand? “Fossil fuels, overwhelmingly coal, will fill the gap,” David says.

[bravedog] 01/2/2022 22:05

Follow up from yesterday

Q. How deviated are these wells?
A. The maximum deviation we have gone to at the moment is about 25 deg.
We have actually overcome these problems now. We have learnt to deal
with the difficult upper section. In the difficult upper section you
get total losses, bit drops, swelling shales. But we have got
techniques in place now that manage that, so we are confident that we
can achieve what we set out to achieve.

Q. Can you elaborate on the techniques?
A. It is basically air and foam drilling rather than a standard mud
system. We have seen significant improvement in our operations. For
example in Sh-1 we lost over 400,000 bbl to the formation and in Sh-2
it was 10% of that.

Q. How are you selling the crude?
A. It is sold at auction. It is dictated by the market. The Ministry
has increasingly started setting prices now. But historically it has
been set by auction.


ONE TO ONE Q&A OILMAN AND JS OF GKP
Oilman put a number of questions to JS posed by him and KOEP members.

Q. What is the volumetric significance of the dolomite zone in the
Triassic in Shaikan?
A. Not sure we have released that information. The DGA report on our
website does list separate resources. I know the internal ones but we
haven’t released those. It is around 85% to 15% Jurassic to Triassic
at the moment. There is scope to increase the Triassic.
[Ewen subsequently pointed out in the recent conversation that so far
only about one third of the Triassic has been penetrated.]

Q. What does the new core taken in Shaikan tell us about the rocks?
Porosity, fracturing, recovery factors?
A. That is work in progress is the answer. It tells us it is a very
fractured reservoir. He did not want to comment further.

Q. What does the basin modelling show for generation and migration of
oil and gas in the Shaikan area? Volumes and timing of generation?
A. GKP hasn’t really done any basin modelling internally. DGA have
done it, we have reviewed it. I have to refer you to DGA on that one.
That is their body of work. We don’t own that.

[The DGA work is very interesting and will be discussed in Part III.]

Q. Any comments around the KRG interaction with operators, technical
side of things? Are they supportive?
A. Other than the fact it is a supportive environment we don’t comment.

Q. What evidence do you have that the fracture network is extensive
throughout Shaikan given that fracture intensity appears to be much
lower in the discovery well in the adjacent Sheikh Adi structure?

[They need to be able to indicate to a prospective purchaser that
there is unlikely to be any nasty surprises e.g. large parts of the
field with none/limited fractures.]

A. Sheikh Adi fitted with GKPs model in Shaikan. Once we knew exactly
what was happening and the 3D seismic became available we predicted
what was happening in Sheikh Adi before the bit got there. It conforms
very well is the answer. We knew Sheikh Adi was not going to be as
productive as Shaikan on the way down.

[An encouraging answer in so far as GKP may now be able to predict the
outcome of some wells. However it did not answer the original question
- are there any large areas of Shaikan likely not to have fractures.
Note it is not that I believe this is the case but I would like to
hear GKP say why they believe it will be fractured essentially
throughout most if not all of the field.]

Q. Was there a problem with that well at some point?
Apparently there was a long pause

Q. Did you put it on the wrong side of a fault?
A. Yes it drilled through a fault and we want to be on the other side.

Q. Does that mean you have got to drill a well on the other side?
A. Yes that is Sheikh Adi 2.

[Nothing new in what was said, however the pause was perhaps
significant as not much information has been released about the
reservoir properties in the discovery. Was John considering what he
could and couldn’t say?]

Q. Has there been any evidence to date in the production history that
the matrix will not be able to feed the fracture system adequately and
sustain the high initial rates seen on tests?
A. Firstly we have not seen a single bit of depletion yet from any of
our production testing. We have produced intermittently over a period
of a year, not a single psi of depletion and that tends to indicate
that there might be some contribution from the matrix. If you were
just bleeding a fracture system you tend to see depletion quickly.

Secondly DST-2 in Shaikan 1, that’s the Mus test, flowed after
acidisation about 1,200 bbl/d. The image logs showed no fractures over
that interval. We are fairly confident that was pretty much matrix
porosity. So certainly there are zones in the reservoir that are tight
but there are zones that are porous too. We are fairly confident from
that DST 2 test that the Mus was producing from the matrix.

[Very encouraging answer on both counts. Not sure I recollect the Mus
being acidized before it was tested with an ESP. Nevertheless 1200
bbl/d from an interval without fractures, i.e. from the matrix is
extremely good. It signifies the matrix permeability in the Mus is
more than adequate to support much higher production rates where
fractures are present. It also provides some comfort that if there was
a large area without fractures wells could still be commercial.]

Q. Which fields offer the most appropriate analogues for Shaikan in
terms of expected reservoir performance and recovery factors?

[A good analogue may indicate potential recovery factor. The problem
is these may be in Iran in which case there may not be much published
info.]

A. No we struggled with this. There aren’t any outcrops of our
reservoir rocks within 100km of the field. We have looked at
structural analogues in the US. That provides a good structural
analogue. Good field analogue? Don’t know couldn’t give you one.

Q. Is there one in Iran?
A. I must admit I don’t know Iranian fields very well so there may be
a good analogue in there but I wouldn’t know it.

[Kirkuk may have some similarities as a type III fractured reservoir
with relatively good matrix permeability but its oil is much lighter
than that of Shaikan and reservoir management practices were poor so
its RF is not applicable.]

Q. What work have you done to define what would be the most
appropriate recovery mechanism for these fields to optimise recovery
factor and field economics ? e.g. water drive, gas reinjection,
gravity drainage etc.

[Recovery factor will be different for each type of recovery
mechanism; the difference between each type could be several
percentage points up to 10’s of % points. I was concerned that not
much work has been done on this although to be fair there are not
enough wells drilled yet to finish development of a geological and
reservoir model to simulate the field. Some basic work should have
been done with the cores samples taken from Sh-1 however.]

A. OK a number of things there. We have got a fracture study ongoing
that has been running for 8 months and is due to complete early next
year. That will define, is defining, the fracture orientation,
fracture aperture, whether they are bed bound, whether they are
pressure solution things, whether they are through grain fractures. We
have lots and lots of information on that now.

So we are confident we are going to be able to integrate that with our
testing results and define a matrix block size from the fractures.
Matrix block size will tell us what type of recovery mechanism we are
going to get.

If you have got very small matrix block size then things like gravity
drainage aren’t an issue. If you have got very big matrix blocks then
that does become an issue.

The second thing is that our recent core data base we have taken lots
of samples, lots of special core analysis (SCAL) ongoing. We are
testing things like miscible gas injection. We have got wettability
studies ongoing. We have got lots of standard porous plate rel perm
work ongoing.

So the integration of the SCAL and fracture network study and the
sector modelling we are doing in Eclipse will tell us what recovery
mechanism is working. We think we have got an active aquifer beneath
us.

[Great to hear that the fundamental studies required to understand the
best way to produce the field are now underway.

What everyone needs to understand is that in a fractured carbonate
reservoir system we need to find a way of displacing the oil out of
the matrix and into the fracture network so it can flow to the wells.

In a sandstone reservoir with no fractures, most of the time the best
approach is simply to waterflood the reservoir and that will displace
a reasonable proportion of the oil from the injectors to the
producers. In a fractured carbonate the risk is that the water will
simply channel along the fractures leading to very poor displacement
of the oil from the matrix where most of the oil is contained. We need
to understand how strong a tendency there is for the water to imbibe
into the matrix and displace the oil. Hence this is why JS mentioned
wettability studies.

There is a risk that channelling through the fractures can also happen
if a gas injection drive mechanism is used to produce the field.
However other effects can also be important with gas reinjection. If
the matrix blocks are tall, a pressure differential is set up between
the oil column in the block and the gas in the fractures surrounding
the matrix block. If the differential is high enough to overcome
capillary pressure the oil will drain out of the blocks. Hence JSs
comments about determining matrix block size (height).

This can lead to high recovery factors but the technique has mainly
been applied to better API gravity oils than Shaikan. Moreover I am
not sure whether this mechanism can sustain high rates that would be
attractive to a bidder. In other words although a high RF might be
attainable that may be over period much longer than the PSC term. It
will depend on the matrix permeability.

So hopefully you can all understand that until this work is completed
anybody’s R.F. estimate for Shaikan is pure conjecture and does not
carry any authority, mine included! However, the higher the RF, the
lower the probability it will be exceeded.

Exxon reservoir engineers will have the same questions in mind if they
are considering a bid for Shaikan. IMO they will be saying, “Until we
know which is the best mechanism to displace the oil from the matrix
and into the fractures there is significant uncertainty in RF.”

Anyone bidding for a stake in RKHs Sea Lion Field which is a sandstone
reservoir with very good analogues is going to be using RF = 35%
-5%/+10% with a lot of confidence. Anyone considering bidding for GKP
IMO is thinking “This could be as low as 15% and as high as 40-45% but
how high can I go and bid with confidence without the basic reservoir
information? If my bid is based on 35% RF and it is only 20% that’s
43% less oil, which will show up in profiles within a few years. I’m
screwed!”]

Q. You think you have actually got an aquifer?
A. We think we have; we don’t know is the simple answer?

Q. You haven’t actually hit any water because you need water don’t you?
A. No it is a real problem. We need water to calibrate the Rw
parameter in petrophysics with a real water resistivity. Yes we tested
a water zone on Shaikan 2 recently. Quite clearly on logs it looked
water wet. We put it on test and it flowed oil!

[This is a bit of a revelation. There are two ways to look at this:
1. Wow even the stuff that looks like it should produce water has
produced oil. DES in reverse LOL!!! Are there other zones that were
not tested that were not regarded as pay that are in fact pay and OMG
the OIP should be even bigger !

2. Wait a minute where was this zone that looked wet and why did it
look wet? Was it in the Kurre Chine or the Jurassic? Did it look wet
because the porosity much lower than expected? This could lower the
OIP in that zone. Did it look wet because the wrong Rw is being used
or there was another problem with the log calcs; in which case no
problem that can be corrected.

This was discussed in the conversation with Ewen. His recollection is
that the zone was in the mid or deep parts of the Jurassic. He was at
pains to point out that water was not encountered, the zone produced
oil. Hence it is not correct to call it a water zone.

I am hoping it is the Baluti formation. BBBS and I had a conversation
about the Baluti formation at the base of the Butmah in Sh-1. Here is
an extract, sorry I don’t have the link to the original post which was
in a thread entitled “Importance of More Results From The Butmah”
during August 2010.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[hydrocarbon1] 01/2/2022 21:37

Latest Release
Feb 01, 2022
Actual
-1.645M
Forecast
1.833M
Previous
-0.872M

[frenchybannedme] 01/2/2022 20:53

Sinclair, maybe.



Anil1571 Feb '22 - 20:22 - 648601 of 648602
0 0 0
This might sound like a stupid question, but does anyone know who GKP can be compared to in the US (company wise)? I think BP's equivalent is Chevron.

[nestoframpers] 01/2/2022 20:37

There's only one Shaikan.