Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[steephill cove] 21/6/2020 19:18

PS:- Somebody needs to tell McFly02 about a Perella Weinberg Staggered Board anti takeover defence :-)

[steephill cove] 21/6/2020 19:00

Algert Global = Yet another USA hedge fund appears from nowhere.

$2.52Bn Assets under Management.

This is from their website:-

We look to own companies that we believe are cheap relative to peers.

We look to own companies whose earnings, we believe, will be sustainable.

We look to own companies for which market sentiment and attention is increasing such that we believe the market is likely to converge to our viewpoint and price.

They clearly believe GKP ticks every box & so do us long term PIs.

Who to believe? McFly02 or Major USA; Dutch & Swiss Financial Institutions?

Its such a hard choice ;-)

[chinese_takeover] 21/6/2020 18:52

No they already taken account oapBut more concentration the key I expect sale RNS soon However I'd rather have another buyback RNS first ....

[pensioner2] 21/6/2020 18:46

So all those percentages, Urals, will be marginally higher now after 18m shares were cancelled?

[steephill cove] 21/6/2020 18:34

McFly02:- The proof will come in a company news release (RNS) When I don't know but it will come!

Welcome to the Age of Enlightenment!

Well, that was worth waiting overnight for. We are so much more informed now...

McFly02:- More bullkaka than the Cesspit in Carry on Behind.

Comedy Gold :-)

[urals] 21/6/2020 18:06

As Takeover nears top 4 insti holders all buying aggressively over past 8 weeks.PLUS new entrant Algert Global hedge funds suddenly appears in the top 10 after adding over 6 million shares in past 4 monthshttps://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/shareholder-analysis/

[urals] 21/6/2020 18:04

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[urals] 21/6/2020 18:04

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[mcfly02] 21/6/2020 18:03

They say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.

Tell them the truth !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[chinese_takeover] 21/6/2020 17:05

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[chinese_takeover] 21/6/2020 17:05

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[habshan] 21/6/2020 16:59

From surreyscot.

LATEST BROKER NOTE.

Arden Partners have just issued a new GKP broker note. Here are key points:

* Target Price 260p “BUY”

* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)

* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.

* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phases”

[jackpotjack] 21/6/2020 16:55

I thought that in the restructure there was a chance to buy shares at the same rate as the institutions and as such if you put more in you walked away pretty much ok?

[0ili0] 21/6/2020 16:07

Sarah, where's the real Mrs Oilman? Why do you impersonate her?

[mcfly02] 21/6/2020 15:56

I warned you about the restructuring long before it happened !

I even told you that Skynews were going to report on it the day before they did followed the company RNS the day after that and shareholders losing 95% 🤷‍a94;️

On another note.

Would somebody like to list all of the CEO's and Chairmen this company has had over the last ten years ???

How does it work again ???

First remove the CFO then the CEO and the Chairman and install all new and round and round we go.

This is nothing to do with my first point.

GoatCam, watching the rinse and repeat and blame everything on the previous BoD.

[nestoframpers] 21/6/2020 15:50

I imagine that once the HCL is signed off ( fingers crossed soon ) it will take about 6 months of regular budget payments before a MOC would move in for a large M&A deal. Any sooner and it might look a tad rash to some major holders / pension funds , what do you think ?

[beernut] 21/6/2020 15:04

Sounds promising

Kurdisan's three presidencies to finalize the salaries problem
Kurdistan
2020/06/21 13:35:33
A- A A+
Shafaq News /A meeting of Kurdistan's three presidencies is scheduled on Monday, to issue a final decision on the salaries and financial dues of the employees and workers in the public sector.

The decision of the previous federal government, headed by Adel Abdul-Mahdi, to cut off the salaries of the public sector employees and workers in Kurdistan Region, caused a crisis, especially in the light of Covid-19 outbreak, the drop in oil prices and the closure of border crossings.

However, Kurdistan Regional Government seeks through negotiations with the current Iraqi government, headed by Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, to resolve disputes between both parties, especially the ones regarding the salaries and the export of oil.

[0ili0] 21/6/2020 14:55

Sarah, does Jeremy know you're a fake? Where's the real Mrs Oilman?

[chinese_takeover] 21/6/2020 14:37

Lansdowne, forcing the deal?They,Astaris, UBS, Hof Hoernerman all still adding..... And now US based Hedge fund Algert Global emerges with over 6,000,000 shares added past 5 months Question is : Will this now go straight to Sale, or, will they via another program of buyback another 22.9m, which would concentrate £4.26 per $bn or better still will they use the extra 200m debt facility to buy a far bigger lump? The sale profits for remaining shareholders will now be £3.80 per $1bnn dollars paid, as oppose to £3.50 prior to the 18m shares being cancelled yesterday. $4-8 BN price tag imo £15 -30/share

[chinese_takeover] 21/6/2020 14:36

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[mcfly02] 21/6/2020 14:26

You can put as much lipstick on this as you want but all is not as it seems !

The proof will come in a company news release (RNS) When I don't know but it will come !

Remember private shareholders are the last to know.

Covid bought them time.

[nestoframpers] 21/6/2020 12:44

surreyscot

Posts: 2,176

Price: 96.70

Strong Buy

PROJECT COSTSToday 12:01
The GKP capex figure was stated by GKP as $160m - $180m gross for 55k bopd excluding contingency. The GKP share of that was $130m to $150m.

The 2019 net GKP capex spend was $90m. Therefore if we assume that little or none of the earlier 2018 capex was directly connected with the 55k bopd programme, there was some $40m to $60m of capex remaining for GKP to spend in 2020.

GKP said on Friday that “Capex for 2020 remains in the range $40 - $48 million (net), a 50% reduction compared to 2019, of which $30 million (net) had been spent by the end of April 2020.” Interestingly, this net $40m to $48m figure is essentially the same as the above remaining spend figure as derived by subtraction.

By subtracting the $30m Jan-April “capex already spent figure”, the balance is then $10m to $18m for the rest of 2020. This looks to be the sum required to complete the 55,000 bopd programme. This is supported by that programme having been due for completion very soon, before the work was suspended. Whatever the precise number, the amount of work required is not great.

The unfortunate thing from a project viewpoint is that the work was suspended at the 11th hour, like an almost-completed jigsaw puzzle. That said, cash has been preserved, costs have been cut and will hopefully be kept down in future, and the additional c. 20k bopd of Shaikan oil is not being sold from the reservoir at fire-sale prices.

From a Project Management perspective completing the 55k bopd upgrade is relatively simple .

Its just a matter of patience now

[highlander7] 21/6/2020 12:17

Cumon Oilio LOL

You have been here long enough with these clowns to know this scaremongering is standard practice with them ,when good news is around the corner.