Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jackpotjack] 22/6/2020 16:19

Ha ha ha.... nothing ever gets agreed.

[beernut] 22/6/2020 16:05

Tomorrow
A Kurd visit to Baghdad by PM and delegation 2 days after the Kurd Presidents and delegation has visited. things look like they’re hotting up
GLA

[beernut] 22/6/2020 16:04

A Kurd visit to Baghdad by PM and delegation 2 days after the Kurd Presidents and delegation has visited. things look like they’re hotting up
GLA

[beernut] 22/6/2020 15:50

Pensioner2 article

The Big Oil Turnaround
by Bloomberg|Javier BlasMonday, June 22, 2020


The Big Oil Turnaround
From negative prices to a bull market.
(Bloomberg) -- Every day, traders in London congregate at 4 p.m. to buy and sell North Sea oil for half an hour. The window, as it’s known in the industry, is where competition between the most powerful players in the market sets the price of Brent crude.

Two months ago, every trader wanted to sell cargoes and none were keen to buy. Now the window has transformed into a bull market, where bids outnumber offers 10 to one and prices are surging.

“The physical market is strong,” said Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura Group.

The turnaround reflects the most torrid period in the history of oil.

First, the coronavirus outbreak obliterated demand in China and shattered the oil alliance between Moscow and Riyadh. Next, the global epidemic and destructive Saudi-Russia price war pushed the market to the brink of disaster. The collapse brought the rivals back together for the biggest production cut on record, just as the pandemic ebbed.

Mirror Image
The renewed strength of the “physical market” for crude -- where actual barrels change hands between producers, refiners and traders -- is driving a surge in the much larger Wall Street world of oil contracts traded on exchanges in London and New York.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose above $40 a barrel on Friday. That’s a mirror image of two months earlier, when the U.S. benchmark made an unprecedented plunge into negative pricing as storage tanks came close to filling.

Beyond the symbolism of that number for the American market, the oil price curve for Brent -- the range of futures contracts covering the coming months -- shows the international market has transformed too.

It flipped last week into so-called backwardation, with crude for immediate delivery trading at a premium to forward contracts. That shape is a telling sign that refiners that saw demand for their products disappear during the lockdown, are now willing to pay top dollar to secure supplies for their facilities.

Leaving Lockdown
“You can see demand ramping up every week,” said Marco Dunand, co-founder of major oil trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.

In China, oil consumption is now back to pre-pandemic levels, according to official data. It’s still down in countries like Italy and Spain, which were badly affected by the coronavirus, but rapidly recovering in others, including India, Japan, France and Germany.

Global demand fell as much as 30% in late March and early April, when governments locked down entire countries. The scale of the rebound is still hotly debated, but most say consumption is now 10% to 15% below normal levels.

“Our short-term tracking of demand confirms a healthy recovery from the lows of April,” said Giovanni Serio, chief economist at Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader.

Vitol estimates that oil demand is rising by about 1.4 million barrels a day every week in June -- that’s roughly equal to adding the whole consumption of the U.K. to the market, weekly.

[urals] 22/6/2020 15:19

#GKPGoing hostile"Proxy fight – a solicitation of the shareholders'proxies to vote for insurgent directors" NON INDEPENDENT NON EXEC placed by LANSDOWNE, a 16% shareholder recently been increasing its stake.BOD trying to delay his formal board appt ?? https://t.co/Hojw33lrDC

[pensioner2] 22/6/2020 15:07

Thanks to steelwatch on the HUR thread:

[urals] 22/6/2020 14:51

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[urals] 22/6/2020 14:50

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[thicktony] 22/6/2020 14:13

It was very very odd publishing the LTIP changes like that, and agreed not necessary to do so at all, so by some design.
They have altered the scheme so pretty much anything goes, regards paying out to recipients, in both directions.
They could pay out nothing or everything, which wouldn't be attractive to a hostile buyer at all, so yes it looks a form of poison pill protection, to drive a higher price friendly deal.

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 14:04

Steep hill the changes to the LTIP ,that were so publically announced( that didn't have to be published at all) ,are a huge hostile takeover defence / higher price driver.Effectively NOW that it's been voted through, unless a sale is agreed and friendly ( by amalgamation only ) the co can payout unlimited amounts of cash ,at it's entire discretion.It's a poison pill to hostilePlus it no longer needs to hold any stock to satisfy the options at any level,all can be cash payment settled.It's another Perella Weinberg masterstroke to force any buyer to match the company price expectation,rather than a cheap buyers deal.

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 14:03

IndeedI would not be at all surprised to see a Concert Party of Institutions/Hedge Funds working in tandem. Especially USA based given that Trump has now declared an interest in Iraq/Kurdistan oil. It would make sense to mask the true acquirer of GKP holdings via movements through smaller funds.

[mcfly02] 22/6/2020 13:56

That's right David🤡

I recommend that you and I mean just you put everything including the flat into GKP.

Let us know how it works out for you.

[0ili0] 22/6/2020 13:28

Simon says, "GKP is a sometime darling of the stock market, one of those shares favoured by London cabbies who like a punt (that's both a recommendation and a wealth warning)."Could be soon, "London cabbies outsmart the City brains in the biggest oil battle in history..."

[broadford bay] 22/6/2020 13:23

Good morning mac,

well commented!

The company in its present form is on a hiding to nothing (Green Energy future, dirty oil, ME, corrupt single customer who cannot pay his bills, 1,000km from your nearest shipping point, bad corporate history, etc)- begs the question then, how to break free of the straitjacket?

It seems obvious (to me at least) that the present management will not be up to the job of breaking free - so a real, root-and-branch shake-up will be needed. Perhaps Mr Soden will be the man, we shall have to wait a little for the first signs thereof.

What, possibly associated, business opportunities could be open to GKP - it may have ca $140M in cash, and be owed another $75M or so for recent sales, but bear in mind the $100M debt is still hanging over their heads. Note that I don't even mention the outstanding and substantial CAPEX sums which, in the normal course of events, would be paid back over future years.

My "buy Debenhams" lighthearted quip the other day was said in jest but a substantial investment in another (non-energy?) company (AIM?) might be on the cards?

Enjoy a few days on the water!

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 13:17

Steep hill the changes to the LTIP ,that were so publically announced( that didn't have to be published at all) ,are a huge hostile takeover defence / higher price driver.Effectively NOW that it's been voted through, unless a sale is agreed and friendly ( by amalgamation only ) the co can payout unlimited amounts of cash ,at it's entire discretion.It's a poison pill to hostilePlus it no longer needs to hold any stock to satisfy the options at any level,all can be cash payment settled.It's another Perella Weinberg masterstroke to force any buyer to match the company price expectation,rather than a cheap buyers deal.

[mcfly02] 22/6/2020 11:17

Good Morning 😃

I genuinely think that the company has come to an end in its current form.

[steephill cove] 22/6/2020 09:50

Combined with Garrett Soden being welcomed back to the Board of GKP as a Non-Independent Non-Executive Director representing funds managed by Lansdowne Partners, there is also a high degree of probability that there could be a bidding war & an attempted hostile takeover of GKP.

[steephill cove] 22/6/2020 09:47

I would not be at all surprised to see a Concert Party of Institutions/Hedge Funds working in tandem. Especially USA based given that Trump has now declared an interest in Iraq/Kurdistan oil. It would make sense to mask the true acquirer of GKP holdings via movements through smaller funds.

[0ili0] 22/6/2020 09:34

RClarck - thanx do u think Astaris/Lansdowne picked those sells up?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

Algert Global ever growing stake, and the top 4 adding even more is confirmed, see link to gkp website belowAs Takeover nears top 4 insti holders all buying aggressively over past 8 weeks.PLUS new entrant Algert Global hedge funds suddenly appears in the top 10 after adding over 6 million shares in past 4 months