Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 14:04

Steep hill the changes to the LTIP ,that were so publically announced( that didn't have to be published at all) ,are a huge hostile takeover defence / higher price driver.Effectively NOW that it's been voted through, unless a sale is agreed and friendly ( by amalgamation only ) the co can payout unlimited amounts of cash ,at it's entire discretion.It's a poison pill to hostilePlus it no longer needs to hold any stock to satisfy the options at any level,all can be cash payment settled.It's another Perella Weinberg masterstroke to force any buyer to match the company price expectation,rather than a cheap buyers deal.

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 14:03

IndeedI would not be at all surprised to see a Concert Party of Institutions/Hedge Funds working in tandem. Especially USA based given that Trump has now declared an interest in Iraq/Kurdistan oil. It would make sense to mask the true acquirer of GKP holdings via movements through smaller funds.

[mcfly02] 22/6/2020 13:56

That's right David🤡

I recommend that you and I mean just you put everything including the flat into GKP.

Let us know how it works out for you.

[0ili0] 22/6/2020 13:28

Simon says, "GKP is a sometime darling of the stock market, one of those shares favoured by London cabbies who like a punt (that's both a recommendation and a wealth warning)."Could be soon, "London cabbies outsmart the City brains in the biggest oil battle in history..."

[broadford bay] 22/6/2020 13:23

Good morning mac,

well commented!

The company in its present form is on a hiding to nothing (Green Energy future, dirty oil, ME, corrupt single customer who cannot pay his bills, 1,000km from your nearest shipping point, bad corporate history, etc)- begs the question then, how to break free of the straitjacket?

It seems obvious (to me at least) that the present management will not be up to the job of breaking free - so a real, root-and-branch shake-up will be needed. Perhaps Mr Soden will be the man, we shall have to wait a little for the first signs thereof.

What, possibly associated, business opportunities could be open to GKP - it may have ca $140M in cash, and be owed another $75M or so for recent sales, but bear in mind the $100M debt is still hanging over their heads. Note that I don't even mention the outstanding and substantial CAPEX sums which, in the normal course of events, would be paid back over future years.

My "buy Debenhams" lighthearted quip the other day was said in jest but a substantial investment in another (non-energy?) company (AIM?) might be on the cards?

Enjoy a few days on the water!

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 13:17

Steep hill the changes to the LTIP ,that were so publically announced( that didn't have to be published at all) ,are a huge hostile takeover defence / higher price driver.Effectively NOW that it's been voted through, unless a sale is agreed and friendly ( by amalgamation only ) the co can payout unlimited amounts of cash ,at it's entire discretion.It's a poison pill to hostilePlus it no longer needs to hold any stock to satisfy the options at any level,all can be cash payment settled.It's another Perella Weinberg masterstroke to force any buyer to match the company price expectation,rather than a cheap buyers deal.

[mcfly02] 22/6/2020 11:17

Good Morning 😃

I genuinely think that the company has come to an end in its current form.

[steephill cove] 22/6/2020 09:50

Combined with Garrett Soden being welcomed back to the Board of GKP as a Non-Independent Non-Executive Director representing funds managed by Lansdowne Partners, there is also a high degree of probability that there could be a bidding war & an attempted hostile takeover of GKP.

[steephill cove] 22/6/2020 09:47

I would not be at all surprised to see a Concert Party of Institutions/Hedge Funds working in tandem. Especially USA based given that Trump has now declared an interest in Iraq/Kurdistan oil. It would make sense to mask the true acquirer of GKP holdings via movements through smaller funds.

[0ili0] 22/6/2020 09:34

RClarck - thanx do u think Astaris/Lansdowne picked those sells up?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[chinese_takeover] 22/6/2020 09:17

Algert Global ever growing stake, and the top 4 adding even more is confirmed, see link to gkp website belowAs Takeover nears top 4 insti holders all buying aggressively over past 8 weeks.PLUS new entrant Algert Global hedge funds suddenly appears in the top 10 after adding over 6 million shares in past 4 months

[nestoframpers] 22/6/2020 08:59

OfficerDigby22 Jun '20 - 01:07 - 608381 of 608395
0 3 0
3 posters (non Paul avatars) just repeating posts? is Paul a contagious virus?


FFS NO NO NO NO NO !

[urals] 22/6/2020 08:09

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[urals] 22/6/2020 08:08

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[urals] 22/6/2020 08:08

Algert Global ever growing stake, and the top 4 adding even more is confirmed, see link to gkp website belowAs Takeover nears top 4 insti holders all buying aggressively over past 8 weeks.PLUS new entrant Algert Global hedge funds suddenly appears in the top 10 after adding over 6 million shares in past 4 months

[stockport loser] 22/6/2020 08:07

interesting, strange how Paul never mentions the reductions. $2m revenue for 2 months i can why they are all running for the hills.

[thicktony] 22/6/2020 07:29

Algert Global ever growing stake, and the top 4 adding even more is confirmed, see link to gkp website.


As Takeover nears top 4 insti holders all buying aggressively over past 8 weeks.
PLUS new entrant Algert Global hedge funds suddenly appears in the top 10 after adding over 6 million shares in past 4 months

[thicktony] 22/6/2020 07:24

I see Algert Global, bought just under 0.25m into their international small cap fund,in March so they been very busy since!
Hopefully have a further update on major holders this week
I'm monitoring the changes.

[urals] 22/6/2020 07:13

Algert Global stake over 6,000,000 actually now up to 2.92%as at June 1#GKPDeal ( in public) nears Voleon capital built short posn to help hedge fund mates build a 2.84% Alhert Global rather bigger LONG position of now near 3% ( hit top ten from know where ?)Berkeley Yankee "Quants" you gotta love themT/0 ( poss hostile battle ) incoming?

[urals] 22/6/2020 07:13

LATEST BROKER NOTE.Arden Partners new GKP broker note. key points:* Target Price 260p “BUYâ€?* they have increased the GKP core Net Asset Value from 222p to 225p, while their total risked NAV has increased from 296p to 299p (unrisked NAV 357p)* they say “While the exact timing of (the 55,000 bopd) restart is currently uncertain, when the project was suspended earlier this year it was around six months from completion, meaning increased production should come through relatively quickly once the project is taken up again.* they say their view “remains that Gulf Keystone will come through the current period of low oil prices and delayed KRG payments, and as a producer the shares are well set to rebound strongly when the oil price does begin to recover (all the more so given the KRG payment exposure). Beyond this the company should then see growth relatively quickly from completing the current upgrade project to take Shaikan to 55mbbl/d gross, and with subsequent potential to take this to over 100mbbl/d gross on further development phasesâ€?

[rclarck] 22/6/2020 07:00

In the last week alone, many institutional investors have been drastically cutting their positions in GKP. Between them, they dropped almost double the not-yet-confirmed Algert position.INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP:From 330,200 to 67,566NPDfa Investment Trust:From 4,492,738 to 1,392,585NPDFIEX - International Core Equity Portfolio:From 2,414,000 to 587,042Dfa International Small Cap Value Portfolio:From 7,978,035 to 3,172,905Fidelity Total International Index Fund:From 188,235 to 20,209