Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 15/7/2019 21:28

Could they be looking in the wrong place for the misdoings?

Anyways no takeaway today, so will it be tomorrow oh Chinese guru?

[beernut] 15/7/2019 20:18

Masrour Barzani vows to fight corruption in first Kurdistan cabinet meeting

Posted on July 15, 2019 by Editorial Staff in Corruption, Politics
Masrour Barzani vows to fight corruption
Iraqi Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani during the first cabinet meeting with new ministers, Erbil, July 15, 2019. Photo: KRG

HEWLÊR-Erbil, Iraq’s Kurdistan region,— Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani during the first cabinet meeting with new ministers, made it clear that fundamental reforms and eradication of corruption are top priorities in his cabinet.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Council of Ministers held its first official meeting on Monday and issued several directives to improve government efficiency and fight corruption.

Among the decisions was the establishment of the official workweek for government ministries, which will last from Sunday through Thursday. It also directed that all employees should “commit to a definite time of work” and not leave their station or perform other work during that period.



The Council also directed ministries to streamline their procedures so that “the people’s business [is conducted] quickly and precisely,” adding that “people should be respected in all the government’s institutions.”

Employees were told not to leak sensitive details related to their job outside of legally authorized procedures.

Another directive warned KRG employees against taking bribes, saying that the practice “will not be ignored and the violators will be punished harshly.” Ministers were ordered to divulge a list of their property and financial interests to the Kurdistan Commission of Integrity.

The Council of Ministers also tasked the ministers with devising plan a plan for their department within 30 days, which will then be submitted for approval.

Masrour Barzani said that a high-level delegation from the KRG will visit Baghdad soon for talks on a number of outstanding issues, including oil and the disputed areas.

Kurdistan considered as the most corrupted part of Iraq. According to Kurdish lawmakers and leaked documents billions of dollars are missing from Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil revenues.

Until now no one has been sentenced over corruption in Iraqi Kurdistan.

According to local and international analysts the lack of control mechanisms in Iraqi Kurdistan makes it a paradise for illegal financial activities by the Kurdish ruling leaders.

The Barzani clan, which is ruling Iraqi Kurdistan, has as been routinely accused by critics of amassing huge wealth from oil business for his family instead of serving the population.

[beernut] 15/7/2019 20:16

KRG Delegation to Visit Baghdad on Tuesday

Basnews English 15/07/2019 - 15:22 Published in Kurdistan
KRG Delegation to Visit Baghdad on Tuesday

Tagged under en
ERBIL — A high-level delegation from Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will visit Baghdad on Tuesday (16th July) to meet with Iraqi counterparts, the KRG said.

According to an official statement, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani announced the Baghdad visit during his first cabinet meeting on Monday.

The KRG delegation aims to show “goodwill̶1; in Baghdad so to accelerate the efforts to find a solution to the remaining disputes between the Kurdistan Region and Iraqi government, the statement continued.

It reiterated KRG’s commitment to resolving the Erbil-Baghdad disputes within the framework of the Iraqi Constitution.

This will be the first official meeting of the new KRG cabinet to Baghdad since it was approved by the parliament last week.

[j0sekl] 15/7/2019 19:18

Repeat yourself parrot. What's in your Chinese takeaway tonight? #piecesofeight prawn crackers?

[urals] 15/7/2019 19:14

https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1150828707147341824?s=19

[j0sekl] 15/7/2019 19:01

It's entertaining no matter what avatar welskhi is using when the deluded muppet tries to frame an argument. That elongated muddled attempt to distinguish Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham and value-investing is a delicious cake of confusion that feeds us for ages to come, lol.

And this perfectly coins the grandiose ignorance of welshki's limited capacity to truly understand Buffet's style by exemplifying all this to Gulf Keystone, lol haha!

Name one company like GKP that Warren Buffet has bought. Mmm.. I can see you scrunching your eyebrows together right now, that wide-eye ignorant look of blankness. Is Coca-Cola? McDonalds?

What did he do to Berkshire Hathaway?And when was the last time he did that? Lol. You are Clueless :)

Terminal value - super juicy BS again .. yes I see you did some feeble Wikipedia first-time reading lol..

People don't ascribe things based on what Wikipedia states lmao. You come across like this is some silly Open University intro. Think very hard about Gulf as a business. Use your little brain. It's not even a question, your blithered retort, one of the Wikipedia passages is completely irrelevant. Why is it you have no clue what is going on? Well that's rhetorical, it is obvious.

The attempt to come across even remotely educated by passively scrolling through Wikipedia lol.. I've always loved that naked ignorance every time you open your mouth.. so rewarding! The entertainment that your thick guesses provide.

Valuation work is bread and butter basics, so the fact that you base your stupid posturing off Wiki is mind-blowingly hilarious. Let's not forget who put in those passages on Gulf and Shaikan in there. Now there's a reference point on the lack of reliability lmao.

[habshan] 15/7/2019 17:42

15 July 2019

Number of Ordinary Shares purchased

141,500

Highest price paid per Ordinary Share

233.000 pence

Lowest price paid per Ordinary Shares

226.500 pence

Volume weighted average price per Ordinary Share

228.855 pence

[stockport loser] 15/7/2019 14:17

Hi Bill, the second dividend will never be paid as the company is on the brink of being sold for $10 billion, yes i know a bit cheap but you know what its like with big oil.

[bigdog5] 15/7/2019 13:30

I've mentioned this before that S5 (and possibly S10/S11) are right on the boundary of the field. S5 is also close to S6 aka the water well.

So imho it won't be long (it may already have happened) before it will have "issues" that will require a major fix. Look what happened to S6.

But as I'm not an oil industry expert we'll have to see how we go:-)

[bigdog5] 15/7/2019 13:24

So has Mr H given the company the MNR's 20/25% in the licence for free,
or has there been a cost that the company haven't announced,
or do the delusional and clueless believe that WI is exactly the same as owning?

Isn't it strange that something as important doesn't get spoken about but the ramptastic crew keep quiet as we all know they have to mislead in order to try and claw back a small amount of their horrendous losses?

[billvernon] 15/7/2019 10:21

Pls can someone clarify something for me. I recently bought gkp the day after it went ex dividend. Ok. I note it is a split payment. I understand i get zip ref first payment but am i vested to get any of the upcoming remaining to be paid div? Assuming i still own when next div payment is announced...or have i totally missed the boat? Thanks to any responders...i'm a bit of a newbie.

[urals] 15/7/2019 07:51

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"X

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 23:12

Is it this week for the imminent takeaway that the Chinese moron has been predicting for 5 years or will it have to wait until the company buyback 110m shares?

[j0sekl] 14/7/2019 21:57

And yet one more of the mysteries in parrot's little universe bursts.. " who took the BIRs? " How many times did the Muppet ask that question?

Nobody, which was never inside information. It's stupendously entertaining to see the muppets munch stump themselves with their own concocted BS predictions.

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 21:12

So according to the Chinese takeaway/Urinal/1712notout/111notout/and around 25 other nicknames the MNR no longer have any interest in shaiCON having handed their 20/25% over to the company for free?

So they obviously must reckon it now has no value as Govts never do anything for free? They've also decided they don't want any percentage of it unlike all the other licences they handed out in Koruptistan where they have their normal 20%?

So we must therefore conclude they know its not worth hanging onto?

So is that proof its all a rather massive con?

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 21:05

Todd's retirement fund ???

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 20:58

The Group has a contingent liability of $27 million (2017: $27 million) in relation to the proceeds from the sale of test production in the period
prior to the approval of the Shaikan FDP in July 2013. The Shaikan PSC does not appear to address expressly any party’s rights to this pre‐FDP petroleum. This suggests that there must have been some other agreement, understanding or arrangement between GKP and the KRG as to how this pre‐FDP petroleum would be lifted and sold. The sales were made based on sales contracts with domestic o takers which were approved by the KRG. The Group believes that the receipts from these sales of pre‐FDP petroleum are for the account of the contractor (GKP and MOL), rather than the KRG, and accordingly recorded them as test revenue in prior years. However, the KRG has requested a repayment of these amounts
and the Group is currently involved in negotiations to resolve this matter. The Group has received external legal advice and does not consider that a probable material payment is payable to the KRG. This contingent liability forms part of the ongoing Shaikan PSC amendment negotiations and it is likely that it will be settled as part of those negotiations

[urals] 14/7/2019 19:51

https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1150349773813276672?s=19

[urals] 14/7/2019 19:41

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"Xx

[j0sekl] 14/7/2019 19:34

Heavy crude is selling at a premium?! Is it really that hard to Google some basic facts like crude oil prices?

For someone who spends their life in front of the computer, that's the kind of productivity they demonstrate?.. no wonder some people are unemployable..

Repeat, parrot. Lol

[chinese_takeaway] 14/7/2019 18:42

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"X

[broadford bay] 14/7/2019 18:27

Leaving aside the Heavy vs Light discount/premium issue don't forget that trading Kurdish Crude still involves an element of "Distressed Seller" pricing - as the selling by KRG/MNR of crude oil transported thru a pipeline which is still subject to a Sovereign Agreement between Iraq & Turkey is still not regarded as completely legal.

Still selling at ca 20% discount to Brent...

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 18:19

Heavy oil $2pb tops?