Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 18:18

So Chinese reckons the MNR have no interest in shaiCON, lol.

[chinese_takeaway] 14/7/2019 17:59

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"X

[j0sekl] 14/7/2019 17:38

Opening statement is enough to fits of laughter..

Chinese_Takeaway 14 Jul '19 - 16:36 -
heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium.

--------
What's the percentage increase in premium for heavy over light grades? Lol

[chinese_takeaway] 14/7/2019 16:36

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 14:06

Takeaway moron what do the MNR and MOL have percentage wise?

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 14:03

nestoframpers
13 Jul '19 - 23:16 - 588103 of 588126
0 2 0
"Things have moved on since then though , 9 Bill blls recoverable with FP of 3% , 80 % of that ...."



I note that the desperate are still living in the past with info as provided by the Kozel regime who ramped it all up for their benefit in order to trough. All the figures from years ago cannot now be used as everything has altered. The evidence of that is clear to see. Both the amount of barrels and fractures are no longer valid. Also the 80% is working interest, it isn't what the company has in any unlikely case of a sale.

[bigdog5] 14/7/2019 13:51

Too high stockport, Brent compared to very heavy, and will be worth less soon.

[stockport loser] 14/7/2019 10:07

So $8 at Brent $100, so what at $65 - no more than $4.

[chinese_takeaway] 14/7/2019 09:57

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"

[stockport loser] 14/7/2019 09:55

Bill, are you sure it wasnt Bob using your account again?

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 09:39

A little bit more of Roberts CV that I'll add to the above.

Education

1. Post Office Management College
Extensive management training at postgraduate level.

2. Open University
Bachelor of Science (Upper Second Class Honours), History of Science and Mathematics, Philosophy

3. Lewisham College
Logistics

4. Bexley College
Computing

5. Dartford Grammar School
Pure Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry
Activities and Societies: Was a member of the Astronomical Society. In May 2016 donated an 8-inch computer-controlled telescope to the school for use by the Astronomy Society and senior students. Subsequently donated funds to enable the students to construct a radio telescope, almost 60 years after the school constructed its first radio telescope, the first school to do so.

[urals] 14/7/2019 09:24

Thanks nestoframpers, very interesting. It's a little out of date in my view, as the company WI is larger at 80%, POO lower, but heavy grades like Shaikan, selling at a premium. If the company sells it will essentially be at a $/boe of?? $8-12 perhaps? A sale would then north of £15."You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!Cheers, TM"

[urals] 14/7/2019 09:09

https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1150316248552620032?s=19

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 09:09

Nestofnutjobs,

You are a bricklayer correct.

You worship Robert Waterhouse who clearly isn't fit to clean JA shoes comparing their CV's.

There are one or two others that Waterhouse has attacked Shall I post up their CV's ???

Real people with real oil industry experience at a very high level.

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 09:01

Robert Waterhouse's CV


Experience
Image for Advisor
Advisor
Oxana Bristowe
May 2017 – Present 2 years
London, United Kingdom
Oxana Bristowe is an Executive Search and Coaching Services company which is led by international headhunter and coach Oxana Bristowe.

We help our clients solve their business challenges by partnering with them and helping them to find, attract and develop winning talent. And we help individuals achieve their professional success by supporting them with our coaching services.

Executive search builds the team and coaching plays a key role in helping people to fulfil their potential. We have the experience and methodologies to achieve this.

Leaders of international organisations seek our expertise in finding, attracting and developing winning talent. Executive professionals find their purpose, tap into their greater potential and find their ideal career choices with our coaching support.

Executive search and coaching are complementary to each other and we are passionate about helping our clients in their quest to be the best.

Please visit our website www.oxanabristowe.com and take a look at what Oxana and the team can do for you.
Founder and Advisor
Rosha Resources Limited
July 2013 – Present 5 years 10 months
London
Rosha Resources is an advisory services company working with international consultants. Our focus is upon helping to build and strengthen senior management teams.
Lord of the Manor
Illston-on-the-Hill
February 2012 – Present 7 years 3 months
Leicestershire
The historic Manor of Illston is recorded in the Domesday Book, and dates back to at least 1066, when the Lord was King Edward the Confessor. Following the Norman Conquest, Illston came under William the Conqueror, Lord of the Manor in 1086. It was then held by Hugh de Grandmesnil (1032-1094), a companion of William who fought with him at the Battle of Hastings. Simon de Montfort (1208-1265), the founder of the first English parliament, later inherited the lands and the title. The 750th anniversary of his parliament was celebrated in 2015.

Education

1. Post Office Management College
Extensive management training at postgraduate level.

2. Open University
Bachelor of Science (Upper Second Class Honours), History of Science and Mathematics, Philosophy

3. Lewisham College
Logistics

4. Bexley College
Computing

5. Dartford Grammar School
Pure Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry
Activities and Societies: Was a member of the Astronomical Society. In May 2016 donated an 8-inch computer-controlled telescope to the school for use by the Astronomy Society and senior students. Subsequently donated funds to enable the students to construct a radio telescope, almost 60 years after the school constructed its first radio telescope, the first school to do so.

[mcfly02] 14/7/2019 09:00

Just in case you missed it

Hello David,

Shall we compare Bobs qualifications against Jeremy's qualifications ???

If you want to come along as well I'm sure I can get you a signed copy of his wife's latest book 😃

Jeremy Asher CV.

Born in London in 1958, Asher attended Winchester College, and went on to earn a BSc (Econ) degree at the London School of Economics, then an MBA from Harvard Business School,[1] which he received with high distinction in 1981, also being designated a Baker Scholar.[3]

Career
Edit
He joined Washington D.C.-based Strategic Planning Associates (later Mercer Management Consulting, ultimately merged into Oliver Wyman in 2007) as a consultant while still at Harvard, in 1980, and rose to become a manager before leaving in 1984. He then joined multinational commodity trader Marc Rich + Co AG (today Glencore), and by the time of his departure in 1989 had become global co-head of Global Oil Products there.[1] In 1989, he and a partner acquired the Beta oil refinery in Wilhelmshaven, West Germany, which he developed as one of its managing directors and subsequently sold.[4] He remained on the supervisory board at Beta Raffineriegesellschaft Wilhelmshaven mbH, the firm established to run the plant, until 1997.[1]

In 1998, Asher became group chief executive for PA Consulting Group, based in London.[1] During his time there, PA globalised and grew from 2,500 to just under 4,000 staff.[3] He negotiated PA's acquisition of American-based multinational rival Hagler Bailly Inc. for about $96 million in cash in 2000,[5] and managed the two firms' integration.[3] He left this role in 2001, when he became chairman of SkyVision Holdings Ltd. In 2005, he founded Agile Energy Ltd, an energy investment company, where he took up the post of chairman, which he retains today. Since founding Agile, he has also sat on the boards of various other firms, including Process Systems Enterprise Ltd (between 2003 and 2008), and Gulf Keystone Petroleum (until June 2014) and Better Place LLC (both between 2008 and 2010).[1] He served again on the board of Gulf Keystone Petroleum in 2013-2014. In addition to his role at Agile, he joined the board of Tower Resources plc, an oil and gas exploration company listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM), in 2007, and became chairman in 2011.[6] Today, Asher is chairman at Agile and Tower, a director on the boards of Better Place and Pacific Drilling SA,[1] and an advisor to Bazan Group (also known as Oil Refineries Ltd.) in Haifa, Israel. He is also a member of London Business School's global advisory council and the Engineering Advisory Board of Imperial Innovations plc, Imperial College London's commercial arm, which is listed on the AIM.[7]

[nestoframpers] 14/7/2019 08:54

Last night I had to sign in to my Acc ( again ) clearly pointing to someone having either tried to sign in or a ADVFN staff member signing in to check my PMs after posting that Asher post (that I have posted a few times before). Asher might be good at making deals selling oil but he is no oil man in Re to E&Ps , sacked twice from GKP and TRP dry as a bone.

[stockport loser] 14/7/2019 07:39

David seems to be cracking under the pressure, perhaps Bob is calling in on the loan he gave him for the open offer?Must be hard when youre working with the likes of Paul and Bob...you cant get the staff..

[beernut] 14/7/2019 07:25

New news confirming Rosneft interest in Kurdistan.

Russia will continue to develop ‘fulfilling relations’ with new KRG government: Spokesperson
Kurdistan 24 Kurdistan 24 | 16 كات;ژم®2;ر لەم;ەو¦2;ێش
Share share
Russia will continue to develop ‘fulfilling relations’ with new KRG government: Spokesperson
Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, during a weekly press conference in Moscow, Russia, July 11, 2019. (Photo: Kurdistan 24)
Kurdistan KRG Russia Masrour Barzani Kurdistan Region A+AA-
ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – A spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry said Moscow would continue to improve its relationship with the Kurdistan Region following the formation of a new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) cabinet.

Addressing reporters at a news conference on Thursday, Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, said her country hopes to have “friendly and fulfilling relations” with the new KRG.

“Beyond a doubt, we will develop them [bilateral ties],” Zakharova said, adding the relations between Erbil and Moscow “are based on mutual respect.”

The spokesperson noted that Russia traditionally has economic interests with the Kurdistan Region, especially in the oil and energy sector. She said the development of these economic ties would help Russia “develop further our friendly relations, and to do that for mutual benefit.”

[beernut] 14/7/2019 07:22

From 2017 Rosneft Exxon Chevron all mentioned

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 23:42

David,

It's common knowledge in the city.

But please feel free to send another pointless email if it makes you feel better 😂

How many times have you sent the FCA emails about me 😂😂😂

You are a funny little man.

It's nice to know you are finally confirming that I'm better informed than any of Team Penge.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:37

Mcfly02 -does the Chairman of Tower Resources know that he is being publicly associated with the possession of inside information by "Oilman63/mcfly02"? Oh well, another email for the FCA.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 23:37

David,

You're all speculation and no facts !

How about you explain why the company hasn't started to fit pumps yet ???

Hang on let me just look...............................................

Nope they haven't started fitting pumps and productions dropping.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:32

Who is giving Oilman/mcfly02 some totally bogus information about multiple avatars? How could they know unless they work for ADVFN.