Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:37

Mcfly02 -does the Chairman of Tower Resources know that he is being publicly associated with the possession of inside information by "Oilman63/mcfly02"? Oh well, another email for the FCA.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 23:37

David,

You're all speculation and no facts !

How about you explain why the company hasn't started to fit pumps yet ???

Hang on let me just look...............................................

Nope they haven't started fitting pumps and productions dropping.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:32

Who is giving Oilman/mcfly02 some totally bogus information about multiple avatars? How could they know unless they work for ADVFN.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 23:26

Are you trying to distract away from Bobs reluctance to meet me and Jeremy in London so we can clear up Bobs misunderstanding of the asset ???

We could explain to him why all the wells going into PF2 are performing so poorly.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:23

Jeremy thinks he's going to make some bunce on GKP. I doubt that.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:22

Asher's wife's brother was in a band called Blue Ruin.We see this avatar "Blueruin" created on 20/8/2001... The early days of ADVFN.Something stinks here.

[woolies window] 13/7/2019 23:20

10bn you say?

[nestoframpers] 13/7/2019 23:16

Things have moved on since then though , 9 Bill blls recoverable with FP of 3% , 80 % of that ..................

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 23:15

David,

That's another avatar that was nothing to do with me that you got wrong.

And before you say it I haven't a clue who it was.

Be interesting for you to ask Jeremy what he now thinks of GKP and its prospects.

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 23:06

I see Asher's supporter is out in force tonight. I always wondered why 1302SB was convinced Asher would take control of GKP. But it never happened.Interesting times.

[nestoframpers] 13/7/2019 23:04

He also posted this one

----------------------------------------------------

nestoframpers - 21 Aug 2018 - 18:02:06 - 570363 of 588100

THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated)

- GKP
Fletxa old post of J Ashers --



s0rayad - 17 Aug 2018 - 12:52:35 - 570197 of 570363 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP
Was it The Minotaur that was behind the alleged ââ;‚¬Å“PumpgateââR18;¬ï¿½ or did he believe what he wrote�

(thanks to nest for saving the post below)

nestoframpers - 10 May 2013 - 20:56:45 - 277752

The Minotaur has posted on iii



17:36
Re: The World's Worst Basher? - Shaikan ...
The Minotaur
51
Dear Bonobo,

You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.

My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.

However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.

But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.

GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.

Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.

This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!

Cheers, TM

[nestoframpers] 13/7/2019 22:35

JA used to supply oil to Israel I believe.

[nestoframpers] 13/7/2019 22:29

And to know how to put a value on an oil company based on that data.

6 pounds a share?

------------------

Was that to get people to hold at the £4 peak wanting more ?

JA posted as the Minotaur-------------



Hi Gramacho,

Super post. I would add the following:

Mediterranean demand for sour, heavier crudes has been strong for a while now. This is party due to the Iranian sanctions, but also simply reflects plentiful light sweet crude and a relative shortage of middle-distillate and fuel-oil rich crudes at a time when middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel are the most sought-after products, and the fuel oil market remains strong. Indeed, Basrah Light and Kirkuk are already well traded in the Mediterranean as well as in Asian markets.

As you say, the KRG can produce lighter or heavier streams by mixing the Taq Taq, Shaikan and other streams. In the present market conditions and those of the last couple of years, I would venture the view that it would not make sense for the long term to sell a very light Taq Taq-based crude which is lighter even than the Algerian grades, rather it would make sense to use the Taq Taq to blend with the heavier crude oils to make the quality consistent and hit a "just right", fairly heavy and sour quality for Mediterranean refiners. Taq Taq is also well suited for refining in the small refineries that the KRG has built locally, which do not have the extensive heavy oil upgrading capacity of the Mediterranean refineries and so are less suitable for the heavier production from, say, Shaikan. So I would expect as much of the heavy crude as possible to be exported, with Taq Taq and other light streams being used to balance the blend.

I expect SOMO would rattle their sabre towards any of their existing customers, including traders, who wanted to buy direct from the KRG, but there are also plenty of traders and refiners in the Mediterranean who are not buying from SOMO directly (especially given the limited volumes that SOMO presently has to market in the Mediterranean) who would not be put off by such tactics.

So in summary, I support your view that the KRG should have no economic difficulty (politics aside) in marketing crude oil into the Mediterranean, and the KRG will have some significant quality flexibility which should allow substantial exports from all of the producing fields including the heavy ones.

Cheers, TM

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 22:23

Robert Waterhouse's CV


Experience
Image for Advisor
Advisor
Oxana Bristowe
May 2017 – Present 2 years
London, United Kingdom
Oxana Bristowe is an Executive Search and Coaching Services company which is led by international headhunter and coach Oxana Bristowe.

We help our clients solve their business challenges by partnering with them and helping them to find, attract and develop winning talent. And we help individuals achieve their professional success by supporting them with our coaching services.

Executive search builds the team and coaching plays a key role in helping people to fulfil their potential. We have the experience and methodologies to achieve this.

Leaders of international organisations seek our expertise in finding, attracting and developing winning talent. Executive professionals find their purpose, tap into their greater potential and find their ideal career choices with our coaching support.

Executive search and coaching are complementary to each other and we are passionate about helping our clients in their quest to be the best.

Please visit our website www.oxanabristowe.com and take a look at what Oxana and the team can do for you.
Founder and Advisor
Rosha Resources Limited
July 2013 – Present 5 years 10 months
London
Rosha Resources is an advisory services company working with international consultants. Our focus is upon helping to build and strengthen senior management teams.
Lord of the Manor
Illston-on-the-Hill
February 2012 – Present 7 years 3 months
Leicestershire
The historic Manor of Illston is recorded in the Domesday Book, and dates back to at least 1066, when the Lord was King Edward the Confessor. Following the Norman Conquest, Illston came under William the Conqueror, Lord of the Manor in 1086. It was then held by Hugh de Grandmesnil (1032-1094), a companion of William who fought with him at the Battle of Hastings. Simon de Montfort (1208-1265), the founder of the first English parliament, later inherited the lands and the title. The 750th anniversary of his parliament was celebrated in 2015.

Education

1. Post Office Management College
Extensive management training at postgraduate level.

2. Open University
Bachelor of Science (Upper Second Class Honours), History of Science and Mathematics, Philosophy

3. Lewisham College
Logistics

4. Bexley College
Computing

5. Dartford Grammar School
Pure Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry
Activities and Societies: Was a member of the Astronomical Society. In May 2016 donated an 8-inch computer-controlled telescope to the school for use by the Astronomy Society and senior students. Subsequently donated funds to enable the students to construct a radio telescope, almost 60 years after the school constructed its first radio telescope, the first school to do so.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 22:04

Hello David,

Shall we compare Bobs qualifications against Jeremy's qualifications ???

If you want to come along as well I'm sure I can get you a signed copy of his wife's latest book 😃

Jeremy Asher CV.

Born in London in 1958, Asher attended Winchester College, and went on to earn a BSc (Econ) degree at the London School of Economics, then an MBA from Harvard Business School,[1] which he received with high distinction in 1981, also being designated a Baker Scholar.[3]

Career
Edit
He joined Washington D.C.-based Strategic Planning Associates (later Mercer Management Consulting, ultimately merged into Oliver Wyman in 2007) as a consultant while still at Harvard, in 1980, and rose to become a manager before leaving in 1984. He then joined multinational commodity trader Marc Rich + Co AG (today Glencore), and by the time of his departure in 1989 had become global co-head of Global Oil Products there.[1] In 1989, he and a partner acquired the Beta oil refinery in Wilhelmshaven, West Germany, which he developed as one of its managing directors and subsequently sold.[4] He remained on the supervisory board at Beta Raffineriegesellschaft Wilhelmshaven mbH, the firm established to run the plant, until 1997.[1]

In 1998, Asher became group chief executive for PA Consulting Group, based in London.[1] During his time there, PA globalised and grew from 2,500 to just under 4,000 staff.[3] He negotiated PA's acquisition of American-based multinational rival Hagler Bailly Inc. for about $96 million in cash in 2000,[5] and managed the two firms' integration.[3] He left this role in 2001, when he became chairman of SkyVision Holdings Ltd. In 2005, he founded Agile Energy Ltd, an energy investment company, where he took up the post of chairman, which he retains today. Since founding Agile, he has also sat on the boards of various other firms, including Process Systems Enterprise Ltd (between 2003 and 2008), and Gulf Keystone Petroleum (until June 2014) and Better Place LLC (both between 2008 and 2010).[1] He served again on the board of Gulf Keystone Petroleum in 2013-2014. In addition to his role at Agile, he joined the board of Tower Resources plc, an oil and gas exploration company listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM), in 2007, and became chairman in 2011.[6] Today, Asher is chairman at Agile and Tower, a director on the boards of Better Place and Pacific Drilling SA,[1] and an advisor to Bazan Group (also known as Oil Refineries Ltd.) in Haifa, Israel. He is also a member of London Business School's global advisory council and the Engineering Advisory Board of Imperial Innovations plc, Imperial College London's commercial arm, which is listed on the AIM.[7]

[0ili0] 13/7/2019 21:59

I thought Tower hadn't ever found any oil? So, he's hardly an oilman.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 21:48

HabscamBOB,

Jeremy Asher. Isn't hethe Chairman of Tower Resources?

Yes that's correct Bob Jeremy is extremely qualified in the oil business and he runs a actual oil company.

What you seem to forget is that Todd kept a lot of the information away from certain board members. Why don't you go and ask the current BoD what they think about Todd's ramping of the assets ???

[habshan] 13/7/2019 21:38

Jeremy Asher. Isn't he the Chairman of Tower Resources?

And wasn't he on the Board of GKP?

I would expect somebody like that to know his way around a data room.

And to know how to put a value on an oil company based on that data.

6 pounds a share?

And how many shares were there in issue in those days.

Getting on for a billion wasn't it?

Well well well.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 21:29

HabscamBOB,

It's just what he said she said on a blog.

Give us some hard provable facts.

If you'd like Bob I setup lunch with Jeremy in London and you can put your questions directly to him and he can put you right on a few of your misconception.

[habshan] 13/7/2019 21:24

SURFER2 - 17 Apr 2016 - 18:32:54 - 480551

Whos the guy who went to the AGM in Bermuda was it in 2013 ? and met Jeremy Asher over lunch ?

He claimed JA had a figure of circa 6 pounds for Shaikan. If Asher wanted Kozel out and Bob is in the Kozel camp then he can't be in the Asher camp also can he. But Asher apparently felt Shaikan could be sold for around 6 quid - or was it Asher had indicated Exxon were ready to deal at 6 quid but Kozel felt it was worth > 10 quid.

[broadford bay] 13/7/2019 21:22

Since we seem to have receded into an "All Our Yesterdays" mode, let us also not forget the "contribution" made by BBBS - you remember, the 100Billion Barrels chappie who conveniently disappeared, supposedly because his new employer didn't want him contributing to the GKP bb.

Todd may have been the focal point thanks to his lifestyle (managed by Blackberry from his yacht), his salary and share options etc, but BBBS was the "expert" who sucked in a great many smaller investors with his overblown projections.

Gramacho was another and very well-qualified specialist in his field - but one who genuinely tried to sift thru the fog and give quality guidance to other investors, only to find that in the final analysis (following SH-6 water contact and his detailed questionnaire to the CEO) his expertise had opened the door to the lion's den and he retreated to more private forums.

And so, we are left with the followers of the leather-coated Pastor and his many ghosts; with the re-born and the re-imagined, with the Gutmenschen und den Bösen, with the Trolls and the Rampers.

...and with the Gospel according to St. Paul.

[mcfly02] 13/7/2019 21:20

HabscamBOB,

I'll meet you on the steps of a police station if that makes you feel any safer ???

I know you don't want to meet me because it will shatter this little make believe blog fantasy world you have setup when I show you emails and documents.

I'll even show you the documents for the sale of my business and how much I got ???

Real stuff that can be confirmed.

Or are you going to carry on hiding behind an avatar on a blog ???