Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 23/6/2018 15:55

I believe it proves conclusively that the company is massively over hyped. I don't believe anyone can be confident in what the company announces or anything that comes out of Koruptistan. It's been obvious to me for many years that the company is allowed to exist to provide a trough for those up the food chain and that shareholders have been mislead into believing that the asset is what Kozel and his "mates" bragged about. Imo, any positives are exaggerated and the negatives are disguised or possibly not even mentioned. Massive fall in production is just a lack of maintenance? Yeah right.

Nine years on from shaiCON1 and posters still rely on the numbers from back then none of which have been proved. Three licences gone, three zones aren't drilled to for reasons I've explained that you all refuse to accept. All the company have are the 356m barrels of heavy oil. None of the "alleged" other numbers can be counted as they haven't been proved, aren't drilled to and its not known if they will flow because there's been no long term tests on them. We all know that shaiCON is very complicated and therefore absolutely nothing can be assumed in that oil is there or will flow or is commercial. That's why I believe the share price is false and way too high for what is known. I reckon there will have to be more dilution. DNO offered less than £1ps cash, go figure.

[oilman63] 23/6/2018 15:23

Mr Oil Investor 😃

Unlike you and your clan I change my view with the events at the time of posting.

Now we both know that I have a very good grasp of day to day goings on don't we 🤔

After all you have done your best to plug any source of information I have and failed.

Unlike you I am willing at times to stick my neck out and predict what's about to happen and my success rate isn't that bad unlike yours 😘

Do you remember the last results ???

You were unwilling to predict them because you haven't got a clue.

There's an awful lot I don't put out 🤔

How does he know How does he know ???

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 14:55

BIGDOG IS A THICK YANK. Employed to batter sentiment 24/7 US eastern time😂㈳4;😂
He is constantly here closing in on 22,000 postings because Gulf equity is worth a fortune in a trade sale.
THAT SALE IS IMMINENT.BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS SOON AS YOU CAN ----SENTIMENT BASHERS ARE ACROSS ALL GKP FORUMS - they are A HUGE BUY SIGNAL!!!

[oil_investor] 23/6/2018 14:54

Bigdog5: do you remember this?

Oilman63 - 27 Aug 2015 - 09:24:39 - 441050 of 567138 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP

Good morning

It would seem that some here are hard to please. Last week and earlier this week it was doom and gloom and we were heading for the gap at 18p. Some also need reminding that in the last seven days the share price has been down to 20p, as I type this it's currently 30.50p. Just a minor little price rise.

Some people said it was a bad idea to take on Nadhim, funny that the MNR's statement just happens to coincide with the release of our RNS this morning. Some also complained about Shaikhan crude not going in to the export market via the pipe and yet you've just been told that there is 20.000 barrels a day going in to that pipe. You've also been told that the other 20,000 barrels is making its way to market and we're being paid for it and people are quick to forget that last time the oil price dropped the MNR stopped us from selling in to the domestic market. Also people are quick to overlook the reduction in trucking costs. Some people complained about the CPR and there being no upgrade, and yet today Jon drops the significant bombshell of an upgrade being released by end of QTR 3. How many days is that away? And before that it's anticipated that we will get a payment from the KRG.

All in all the outlook for the company according to some is bleak and Jon's new transparency policy mustn't be working but I think it's clear to see that some have the onset of selective blindness. Will the new CPR shock? I think it will. If we do not see a re-rate in the share price by the end of September I'll show my arris in Woolies window.

[bigdog5] 23/6/2018 14:42

Excellent history lesson from OM63, exactly how I recall it. Real odd that so many don't.

How kind of oil_investor to bring us his take on a "Midsummer nights dream". This will of course be favourably compared by his supporters to other works of his such as "Release the Kraken" and "Open Southcott's Box". The even longer running "Missing slides" turned out to be a turkey. None of them are still running or was viewed as a "Box office hit" and have now sunk without trace having failed to reach wider audiences in the city.

However, his critics will just view his latest offering as pretentious waffle.

The "writer" appears to ignore that plans can change very fast based on events and results. Information as provided by the company one month can easily be altered the next. His numerical logic is of course as flawed as it's ever been in that he assumes that the MNR will "pay their way" or pay any "back costs". His memory appears to have problems with history in dealing with the hosts but can easily drag up irrelevant BS from 6 years ago.

The writer also continues to overlook the reasons why production has materially fallen and assumes it's just the lack of maintenance which will be easily addressed. Just like he believed the bond holders would be easily handled and that the bonds weren't expensive. He also ignores all the Political issues and how they can impact on the PSC and numbers/values going forward.

I believe history has proved that the phrase "all may not be as it seems" is something investors should be very aware of here. Remember, vested interests and as regards announcements, Turkeys don't vote for Thanksgiving/Xmas:-)

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 14:33

Don't read them anymore ,ramblings of an ill man, Tonys got serious issues to address.
Hope he gets some help soon.

[rodinswan2] 23/6/2018 14:07

Looks like the Oilman avatar is for hire again. Lol.

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 13:49

10bn at today's shares in issue £33

After an equity concentration buyback of 50%

£66

Nice

#perella

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 13:38

Funding!!!!!!! THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH EXCESS CASH!!

Gkp borrowed a total of $575m to develop Shaikan With NO INCOME!!!!

It now has MASSIVE free cash INCOME GENERATION.BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR GROWTH PLANS.
Hence when they said in the annual report - at the SAME TIME AS FINALISING INVESTMENT PLANS THEY WILL, EVALUATE OPTIONS TO OPTIMISE CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE COMPANY AND SHAREHOLDERS!!!!!

RESERVE BASED LENDING??? ISSUE OF LOW COUPON NOTES????
TO REFINANCE THE 100m at 10% outstanding plus anything else they may need.
??? Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO


Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m EBITDA - THEY ARE A HUGELY CASH GENERATIVE MOOOOOOOO!!! COW!!!

Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive destructure

Expect an equity concentration

💰💰💰💰8176;

Then expect a takeover deal






🚀🚀🚀🚀8640;🚀Ԇ40;🚀🚀;

[hearts5] 23/6/2018 13:34

big placing coming.

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 13:03

He's mentally ill Guy
Pity him

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 12:59

Funding!!!!!!! THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH EXCESS CASH!!

Gkp borrowed a total of $575m to develop Shaikan With NO INCOME!!!!

It now has MASSIVE free cash INCOME GENERATION.BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR GROWTH PLANS.
Hence when they said in the annual report - at the SAME TIME AS FINALISING INVESTMENT PLANS THEY WILL, EVALUATE OPTIONS TO OPTIMISE CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE COMPANY AND SHAREHOLDERS!!!!!

RESERVE BASED LENDING??? ISSUE OF LOW COUPON NOTES????
TO REFINANCE THE 100m at 10% outstanding plus anything else they may need.
??? Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO


Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m EBITDA - THEY ARE A HUGELY CASH GENERATIVE MOOOOOOOO!!! COW!!!

Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive destructure

Expect an equity concentration

💰💰💰💰8176;💰Ԇ40;🚀🚀;🚀🚀🚀

[guypender] 23/6/2018 12:58

I'm confused. Do you want this company to succeed or not?

[oilman63] 23/6/2018 12:30

Looks like I've got somebody worried with the true history.

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 12:10

Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m EBITDA - THEY ARE A HUGELY CASH GENERATIVE MOOOOOOOO!!! COW!!!!

[therealminotaur] 23/6/2018 11:04

Funding!!!!!!! THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH EXCESS CASH!!

Gkp borrowed a total of $575m to develop Shaikan With NO INCOME!!!!

It now has MASSIVE free cash INCOME GENERATION.BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR GROWTH PLANS.
Hence when they said in the annual report - at the SAME TIME AS FINALISING INVESTMENT PLANS THEY WILL, EVALUATE OPTIONS TO OPTIMISE CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE COMPANY AND SHAREHOLDERS!!!!!

RESERVE BASED LENDING??? ISSUE OF LOW COUPON NOTES????
TO REFINANCE THE 100m at 10% outstanding plus anything else they may need.
??? Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO

[oil_investor] 23/6/2018 10:58

beernut: two of the three non-Shaikan licences were not operated by GKP in any case. They were Akri-Bijeel - operated by MOL which went all pear-shaped and cost MOL some $700 million according to public domain reports - and Ber Bahr, which was operated by Genel who walked away from it. GKP would have been bonkers to try to continue alone with either of those licences. The third one was Sheikh Adi, which was found to be Shaikan anyway, at least heading West as far as the massive slip-fault which forms part of the Shaikan trapping mechanism. The fact that the Eastern part of Sheikh Adi is simply part of Shaikan is explicit from the cross-sectional schematics in the CPR.

Quite how the former Sheikh Adi will be treated, going forward, is anyone’s guess. It is undoubtedly the case that Todd Kozel, David Mackertich and Chris Garrett obtained the plum licence when they plumped for Shaikan. I recall what Rex Wempen told the Judge at the Pantomime that he had said in 2017 - “We want those worms!”

[beernut] 23/6/2018 10:41

As Guypender keeps saying while the likes of you know who are here ( with no money invested)trying to talk us into selling, we’ll keep buying and investing. We don’t need 4 licenses, Shaikan is too big on its own for the likes of Exxon. I’m expecting a multiple takeover. GLA.

[oil_investor] 23/6/2018 10:40

FUNDING THE 55,000+ BOPD 2018 AND 2019 INVESTMENT PROGRAMMES

Close comparison of the 11 May 2018 and 22 June 2018 RNS material reveals rather more than some readers might realise.

As I noted yesterday, the longer-term Shaikan target of 110,000 bopd has returned, having been temporarily replaced with one of 100,000 bopd. What the field will ultimately produce is a matter for speculation - and partly depends upon whether the MNR wants the field to produce “for 100 years or more” as GKP have said, or whether the Region would rather more fully monetise the asset before, say, 2050. After all, the demand for oil as an energy source beyond such a date is currently unknown.

On 11 May 2018 GKP gave the gross cost (payable by the non-carried PSC parties) of achieving 55,000+ bopd as $175 million to $215 million (including 25% contingency). GKP reiterated that on 22 June 2018. The reason I express this as “55,000+”; rather than “55,000” is because the expenditure includes the cost of three Jurassic wells which have been brought forward from a later development phase which targets production of 75,000 bopd. According to the 11 May 2018 details, the lift from 55,000 bopd to 75,000 bopd has been previously planned to be achieved using 7 new Jurassic wells with Electric Submersible Pumps, which represents c. 3000 bopd of incremental production per well. But because of the reasons explicitly given by GKP on 11 May 2018, three of those Jurassic wells were being advanced and are included within the expenditure figure above. This makes sense, in my opinion, provided that the funding is readily available. And my analysis (below) shows that this is indeed the case.

GKP have now advanced other work compared to the 11 May 2018 plan. We see this by looking at the expenditure estimates and the words describing what is being done with that money. On 11 May 2018 GKP told the market that they were planning to spend $55 million to $65 million (gross, including 25% contingency) during the next phase. They have now raised this, within the unchanged $175 million to $215 million total, to $91 million (gross, including 25% contingency) which is a firm figure rather than a range as before. So they are planning to spend an additional $26 million to $31 million on items which they have now brought forward from the subsequent phase. That represents a considerable amount of work - but what work is it, exactly? GKP do not define it. Put that issue to one side - what we see is that GKP have brought the 2018 and 2019 investment programmes more into balance with each other than they were previously.

I showed on here yesterday that the net investment contribution required from GKP for the 2018 programme, being $73 million, is covered by the net income due to GKP for April, May, June and July 2018 production, once the 25% contingency is stripped out. So we see that the 2018 investment programme does not deplete the current cash balance, which was $222 million on Midsummer’s Night.

So now we can look at the 2019 investment programme. GKP have not given a “net” figure for GKP because this depends upon whether the MNR pay the back-costs for their non-carried 20% Interest or not. Assuming that they do, GKP’s share of the 2019 capex drops to 64%, according to what GKP have previously stated. So let’s do the best we can. Take the gross mean figure for the total programme, $195 million, and deduct the gross 2018 capex figure of $91 million. That gives a gross 2019 investnent figure of $104 million including a 25% contingency. Strip out the contingency and it leaves $78 million, interpreting what GKP say as meaning that the 25% is one-quarter of the total. Now we need to consider how much of that $78 million is payable by GKP. Without the MNR paying their back-costs, GKP would pay 80% and MOL 20%. So that would be $62.4 million net for GKP. But in the anticipated situation, with the MNR having paid their back-costs, the GKP net contribution would fall to 64% (as previously stated by GKP) which represents $49.9 million.

So we can now ask ourselves “from where will GKP get that money?”. Well, the Midsummer Night’s Dream cash-at-bank figure of $222 million means that Sami Zouari could simply write out a cheque. But that ignores the receipt of (a) GKP’s net earnings from Shaikan production after July 2018 (see above), (b) the monies owed to GKP by the MNR, and (c) contributions to GKP via the PSC Cost Recovery Facility toward the $349 million due to GKP for past allowable costs (the most recent GKP figure). In addition, GKP will start to recover the cost of the 2018 investment programme, so there is money coming in from that. This is particularly so regarding the accounting treatment of well workovers, Electric Submersible Pumps and replacement of tubing. ERC Equipoise said in the Competent Person’s Report that ESPs would be treated as opex rather than capex. On that basis, a decent amount of money would be quickly recovered as an allowable operating cost. That would reduce the MNR’s income somewhat and I would imagine that if the figures were considered significant, some discussion might be appropriate. Of course, GKP’s net income reduces a little when the MNR pay their back-costs, that’s only fair.

It is apparent that the 2019 investment programme wouldn’t have to dip into the Midsummer Night’s Dream $222 million cash pile. The estimated $49.9 million is modest compared to (a), (b) and (c) above. Looking for example at the months beyond July 2018 (see above), my feeling is that monthly GKP income less non-investment expenditure might be $5 million to $10 million, depending upon the oil price, the impact upon production of shutting-in wells as workovers are done and surface facilities are altered, and the GKP percentage of income in the light of the MNR back-costs. But it would only require 5 to 10 months to garner $49.9 million from net monthly income. So by the time the 2019 programme was getting underway, the $49.9 million would be there - without touching the Midsummer Night’s Dream $222 million cash, or the other items which I have identified above.

Oberon, Miranda and Titania indeed. Lucifer Sam has switched on the Interstellar Overdrive in my opinion...

[oilman63] 23/6/2018 10:27

And just to add 😃

There is an idiot with many multiple avatars (see above) posting like crazy but he always has to post 3 times consecutively.

Same message since 2012 sold tomorrow 😂😂😂

[mr roper] 23/6/2018 10:26

So many folk living in the past. Trade what you see.