Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 14:33

💵💵💵💵8181;

In the annual report in April the FD flagged he would look to optimise the company’s capital structure . Clearly it’s distorted. Hugely net cash positive and every month the cash pile grows.

Why do companies repurchase stocks?

There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, which have played a part in the elongated bull markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The first posits that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it, rather than squander funds on a risky acquisition or capacity increases or run an inefficient balance sheet with any cash balance earning scant return at low interest rates.

Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending on their tax situation, and whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained.

Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects.
The company has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!!
BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR ANY GROWTH PLANS.

Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO

Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m …

In my view Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive d for e of July 2016

Expect an equity concentration of some format ( lots possible )that will send the stock :rocket::rocket::rocket:

Then IMO expect a TAKEOVER as this pre sale concentration will maximise the owners profits.NOW RETAIL LONG SINCE DRIVEN OUT THE owners being 92% or so big banks/instis or whoever they holding stock for.

[broadford bay] 25/6/2018 14:24

Condensate liquids are volatile and need to be stabilised before they can be safely stored or transported.

Stabilisation involves flashing off (heating) the volatile (gaseous) components and condensing the valuable liquids. The same issues remain - burn off those gaseous components or collect them.

[oil_investor] 25/6/2018 14:13

therealminotaur: what on earth is he going on about now? Jimmy Mack...Martha and the Vandellas...Mohair Sam...Sam the Sham and the Pharoahs...Lucifer Sam...but it seems he is referring to yet another unpublished GKP report which isn’t about pop music.

For goodness sake.

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 14:10

14:08

How long before head case man marker appears opening spread 4-6 minutes

[oil_investor] 25/6/2018 14:08

Broadford Bay: that’s a good point. GKP *thought* that there was a lot of gas in the Triassic - and when ERC Equipoise audited Gulf’s model they wrote the CPR on that basis.

But as Jon Ferrier explained at the Kurdistan-Iraq Oil and Gas Conference in London on 1 December 2015, an error had been made in classifying the Triassic hydrocarbons. Samples had been retained and these were re-analysed in the laboratory. And the so-called “Gas” was found to be highly-valuable Condensate. The liquid condensate volume is substantial, and can be estimated by conversion of the appropriate Triassic gas figures in the CPR (in Bcf) into barrels using the standard conversion formulae. This is what I refer to as the “Jon Ferrier Triassic Condensate Correction”.

My guess is that the reservoir temperature, combined with the pressure reduction when the Condensate was released during flowtest together with the surface temperature, had caused the Condensate to change from a liquid state to a gaseous state. So GKP presumably thought it was gas, which according to Jon Ferrier it wasn’t.

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 14:04

🚀🚀🚀🚀8640;In the annual report in April the FD flagged he would look to optimise the company’s capital structure . Clearly it’s distorted. Hugely net cash positive and every month the cash pile grows.

Why do companies repurchase stocks?

There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, which have played a part in the elongated bull markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The first posits that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it, rather than squander funds on a risky acquisition or capacity increases or run an inefficient balance sheet with any cash balance earning scant return at low interest rates.

Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending on their tax situation, and whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained.

Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects.
The company has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!!
BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR ANY GROWTH PLANS.

Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO

Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m …

In my view Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive d for e of July 2016

Expect an equity concentration of some format ( lots possible )that will send the stock :rocket::rocket::rocket:

Then IMO expect a TAKEOVER as this pre sale concentration will maximise the owners profits.NOW RETAIL LONG SINCE DRIVEN OUT THE owners being 92% or so big banks/instis or whoever they holding stock for.

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 14:00

Gas re injection

[oilman63] 25/6/2018 13:51

What's funny is how some get their knickers in a twist and one fools scramble to be king of an insignificant hill 😂😂😂

I see the Stockport 🤡 Has registered one of his LSE avatars on here.

It's a sad life spending all day everyday talking to yourself and voting your own comments up as if it matters.

All highly transparent.

Also note that the offer to come and read the RS report wasn't taken up.

How about he posts up the Sami Mack report ??? Or doesn't he want that to see the light of day ???

[broadford bay] 25/6/2018 13:46

Re production from the Triassic...

Didn't the discovered Triassic oil (HP) also have rather a lot of associated gas?

Perhaps so much so that the MNR decided not to tap the Triassic until suitable gas processing plant / solution was available? And by that I don't mean burning/flaring it.
Lot of gas means lot of money to process (even ignoring the high H2S and S% considerations for the moment), and more pipelines too - and E-plants at the end of it/them.

Just a thought...

[margic] 25/6/2018 13:24

That was then, this is now

[oil_investor] 25/6/2018 13:18

Pensioner2: might it perhaps be something to do with the Midsummer Night’s Dream $222 million of cash, the development programme which should be funded from income going forward, the imminent flow of Shaikan crude directly into the Atrush Feeder Pipeline from Shaikan Production Facility-2 which is just 400 metres away, and the ERC Equipoise NPV figure (0%) in the current CPR of $3.067 billion for GKP’s 58% interest in the Proved and Probable Reserves?

I think it just might!

Presumably, certain other persons posting on here would have us believe that it is the result of untruths (“spin”) from CEO Jon Ferrier and his colleagues, if not plain and simple fraud. In which case, they really ought to contact the FCA and the Fraud Squad with their evidence. Any decent citizen would surely do so.

[pensioner2] 25/6/2018 13:10

Just look at that chart. Much more to go imo.

[oil_investor] 25/6/2018 13:06

Oh dear.

Yet more untruths from Bigdog5. Whoever that poster might actually be these days...

GKP said that the Shaikan Jurassic would priduce 440,000 bopd. It was repeatedly stated by GKP. Including by Tony Peart, Anastasia Vvedenskaya and Ewen Ainsworth in September 2011 in their joint interview with Interfax. And by John Stafford.

Incidentally, I said that the Atrush Feeder Pipeline would be built. Others on here were screaming that it wouldn’t be. But I was correct. And I was also correct in saying that ShaMaran had publicly said that the pipeline was designed to carry the Shaikan production. That is why the section which runs from Shaikan Production Facility-2 to Kurdistan Pumping Station-2 on the main export Pipeline was very substantially upgraded - at additional cost - during construction to a diameter of a massive 36 inches, which is sufficient to carry 750,000+ barrels of oil per day.

Bigdog5 has been repeatedly told that the current Field Development Plan focuses upon the Jurassic. And the reasons why. He/she repeatedly posts that there is no evidence that the Triassic will flow. What nonsense. There are Proved Reserves for it in the CPR, as well as various categories of Probable Reserves and Contingent Resources.

There are no “missing”; slides prior to 2018 because I got CEO Jon Ferrier to release them. So that’s wrong as well.

And I see that Broadford Bay agrees with me that the restoration of the PSC Contract terms is now recovering past costs, going forward. So much for the preposterous allegation that the MNR doesn’t do that.

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 13:00

In the annual report in April the FD flagged he would look to optimise the company’s capital structure . Clearly it’s distorted. Hugely net cash positive and every month the cash pile grows.

Why do companies repurchase stocks?

There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, which have played a part in the elongated bull markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The first posits that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it, rather than squander funds on a risky acquisition or capacity increases or run an inefficient balance sheet with any cash balance earning scant return at low interest rates.

Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending on their tax situation, and whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained.

Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects.
The company has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!!
BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR ANY GROWTH PLANS.

Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO

Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m …

In my view Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive d for e of July 2016

Expect an equity concentration of some format ( lots possible )that will send the stock :rocket::rocket::rocket:

Then IMO expect a TAKEOVER as this pre sale concentration will maximise the owners profits.NOW RETAIL LONG SINCE DRIVEN OUT THE owners being 92% or so big banks/instis or whoever they holding stock for.

[bantercity] 25/6/2018 12:36

What beggars believe is your presence here. Each day deramping, banging the same drum at 90p as now at 240p. Your agenda is extremely clear. The share price is doing the talking at the moment and is clearly in disagreement with your views.
Your presence on this board only encourages me and your inability to provide any kind of balanced view leads me to believe you are here to suppress the share price and as the past 6 months have shown doing quite a poor job of this.

[bigdog5] 25/6/2018 12:24

It beggars belief how much naivety there is here. If all wasn't going well at any company for any reason do you really believe they don't put an "optimistic spin" on events?

Haven't we all seen it with Politics?

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 12:22

🐶🐶Why do companies repurchase stocks?

There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, which have played a part in the elongated bull markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The first posits that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it, rather than squander funds on a risky acquisition or capacity increases or run an inefficient balance sheet with any cash balance earning scant return at low interest rates.

Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending on their tax situation, and whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained.

Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects.

GULF HAVE FAR TOO MUCH EXCESS CASH!!

Gkp borrowed a total of $575m to develop Shaikan With NO INCOME!!!

It now has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!!
BOND INVESTORS WILL TRAMPLE OVER EACH OTHER TO LEND THEM NEW CASH FOR ANY GROWTH PLANS.

Hence when they said in the annual report - at the SAME TIME AS FINALISING INVESTMENT PLANS THEY WILL, EVALUATE OPTIONS TO OPTIMISE CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE COMPANY AND SHAREHOLDERS.......

RESERVE BASED LENDING? ISSUE OF LOW COUPON NOTES?
TO REFINANCE THE 100m at 10% outstanding plus anything else they may need.

And then .......

Special divi? SHARE BUYBACK?? The latter IMO

Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m
SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO:
Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO!
So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m EBITDA - THEY ARE
A HUGELY CASH GENERATIVE MOOOOOOOO!!! COW!!!

Expect the opposite of the massively dilutive destructure

Expect an equity concentration that will send the stock 🚀🚀🚀🚀



Then expect a takeover deal

[bigdog5] 25/6/2018 12:20

"The field has a current nameplate capacity of 40,000 bpd, and Gulf Keystone has previously described Shaikan's full potential production at around 100,000 bpd".

That's a long way down from Kozels 150k by 2014 and a Guru's predicted 400k. Isn't it odd how predictions that come from the company and "others" never occur.

[guypender] 25/6/2018 12:15

Can't you just enjoy the ride!

[bigdog5] 25/6/2018 12:12

Here's some more thoughts. If the points that oil_investor has dragged up from years ago still hold any validity why does the most recent CPR only state 356m barrels?

If he's so sure that the Triassic will flow and can be produced from why aren't the company doing so? Why are they going to blend their heavy with other's lighter and better quality oil?

Then there's all the "missing slides" and reports that apparently have been "hidden". Why is it in any interest for the company do that?

[guypender] 25/6/2018 12:07

You are soooooo boring

[therealminotaur] 25/6/2018 12:05

Giant oilfield

Needs new owners

beernut 23 Jun '18 - 08:23 - 567123
0.011000
Should have said see why the derampers are here on all iii. Lse. and advance boards. We’re worth a fortune. GLA.





Fill yer boots

The cash spinning off here is huge

The head cases bashing away in desperation