Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[oil_investor] 28/10/2016 10:34

Oh dear.

Now Nicebut alleges that it is only myself who thinks that assessing the level of fracturing of a carbonate eeservoir is important. There are plenty of GKP shareholders who see the importance of fractures...not to mention DGA and every petrophysicist!

And indeed GKP themselves.

That is why they obtained image logs and neutron logs, why they took core samples (Shaikan is actually so "shot to pieces with fractures", as Stafford told the AAPG, that some core barrels merely returned RUBBLE to the surface!) and why they spent twelve months and over one million dollars on the 2012 Ryder Scott Fracture Report! They also used Lidar Guys, as well as Dr. Lorenz and Dr. Cooper.

None of it matters. Yeah, right lol

As for Shaikan-6, all I can suggest (again) is that he call Stafford and ask him for his explanation. Or if that leads nowhere, ask Jon Ferrier.

EDIT: oh, I just realised. Were John Stafford, Dr. Lorenz and Dr. Cooper were presumably wasting the time of their American Association of Petroleum Geologists colleagues by giving the presentation in Houston, Texas? Shocking! To occupy a few hundred experts listening to a supposedly irrelevant talk when they could have been doing something else.

[tess_tickle] 28/10/2016 10:31

Lock 20 experts in a room with the Shaikan data and they will all come up with a different interpretation. And a week later may want to change it because x, y or z has arisen.

No one is going to get into trouble over an evolving interpretation, are they.

Just an oily mull.

[cutthecagain] 28/10/2016 10:25

When you have the CEO telling his acquaintances about £23 a share takeovers
A COO telling the courts there was NOTHING even going on at the time
And complicit influential investors putting their pens down in court and turning a blind eye to contradictory evidence

There is absolutely no trust and is most certainly somewhere at least one liar within the company

The investor - playing fellow investors IMO.

To claim one piece of evidence (i.e. Ryder Scott report) is more reliable than the other (CPR) is an assumption which only those with inner knowledge can claim.

Unfortunately with a clean slate and a new CEO running the show, the further 2 CPR's point to the first being correct.

The missing overly bullish reports disappearing might perhaps suggest that they were incorrect.

Just a mull

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 10:17

|Someone tell me what`s so great about these?

[cutthecagain] 28/10/2016 10:17

Roughly today's equivalent

3.75 x 6 = 22.5
/23 = 0.978

Chinese Takeaway = 97.8p / share

Have you asked TK for an explanation on that as well as the Ryder Scott report etc OI or was your obsession, I mean your focus all about other posters?

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 10:13

How come its only you that thinks they`re so dammed important- Most of us don`t know what we`re looking at. FFS. They are meaningless. Especially after 2 more CPRs and no more reserves and all the other problems that GKP have...You go on and on about them...but at the cost of everything else.

What are you going to say now- That i should`t be invested if I don`t understand them? dammed right!

You`re turn- What about all the SH-6 information that was withheld? Are you going to acknowledge that?

[cutthecagain] 28/10/2016 10:02

Don't phone it's just for fun

TK's Lithuanian acquaintances claimed TK told them that GKP was going to be bought by the Chinese at approx 6 times the then share price

The share price then being around £3.75

With today's dilution what would be the equivalent share price for that takeover?

#IfCarlsbergdidpumps

[oil_investor] 28/10/2016 10:02

Well, at last Nicebut finally states, in his #525560, that John Stafford DID NOT AGREE WITH ERC.

At least that is a step forward!

But how on earth can he allege, in his #525563, that "only a few of you, and the lucky geologists", have seen the AAPG material?

* the AAPG themselves published the pre-presentation Abstract on their publicly-accessible website, and as soon as it was spotted by GKP shareholders many references were made to it on the blogs

* as I explained in near-forensic detail, the newly-appointed CEO Jon Ferrier was not happy when he learned that these slides had not been released. He personally investigated the situation. There is correspondence about this. He then ordered the publication of the presentation, which went onto the GKP website in late October 2015. They are there for ANYONE TO STUDY.

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 09:58

Cut,

I bet Todd said...We`re in talks with XOM.

[cutthecagain] 28/10/2016 09:54

So what did Todd say?

Surely you asked him...

[oil_investor] 28/10/2016 09:53

SHARES PER BARREL

Some misleading figures have been posted in this thread, presumably with the intention of leading people to think that the Restructuring has diluted the shares to such an extent that the shares have virtually no assets supporting them.

Here are the figures based upon what is in the current CPR. Now some of us consider that the CPR does not fully reflect the Shaikan asset. But I have put that to one side.

All the figures are based upon the GKP attributable volume at 58%, which is the percentage of Shaikan which GKP have following the Second Amendment to the Shaikan PSC (previously 54.4%).

OIL IN PLACE FULLY-DILUTED SHARES PER BOE = 3.0

CATEGORY 3 FULLY-DILUTED SHARES PER BOE = 14.9

CATEGORY 2 FULLY-DILUTED SHARES PER BOE = 32.1

(note that in assessing the Category 2 and Category 3 volumes, ERC excluded two Shaikan formations and included nothing for them).

[hearts1] 28/10/2016 09:47

'He notes: "2016 has already seen the semi-autonomous government miss a number of monthly payments'Not quite the paid for every barrel that a certain ' advisor ' has been spamming.

[1712notout] 28/10/2016 09:46

Apologies
Late clocking on 😳

Huge buy
😳😊😊😊8522;😊

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 09:45

The above is perfect example of you indulging in `risky shift`. You`ve convinced yourself that XXX is the case when the opposite is staring you in the face- Its been staring you in the face for 2 years- But you are blind to it. For some reason...

There`s even been 2 more CPRs but you still don`t believe it do you...Perhaps this is your way of dealing with how GKP have behaved?

It`s what happened in air crashes occasionally...In your case its you watching the share price crash from c220 to 1p- Like your mate 1712, you continue to shout `buy`...as it dives into the ground.

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 09:41

O_I,

So what?

You are going on about something that no-one, apart from a few of you, and the lucky geologists, have seen. The one header slide you put up- was immediately shot down by this BB because it referred to 9.4bn (or whatever the figure was) of reserves-It was nicked from another GKP presentation-

You have based a whole campaign on this?

And yet you totally ignore the *fact* that price sensitive information on SH-6 for testing was hidden for c18 months. SA-1 was the same previously too.

[oil_investor] 28/10/2016 09:33

So there we are, as regards the AAPG slides.

I have set out (above) in near-forensic detail what ACTUALLY happened, including what Vvedenskaya and Stafford did.

By the way, the pre-presentation Abstract published by the AAPG states that the fractures contain "millimetre- to centimetre-scale dissolution slots", Slide #18 says that there were "1995 measured fractures over 314 metres of core", there are very clear and highly-revealing PHOTOGRAPHS of some of those core-evidenced fractures in Slides #s 18, 21, 22, 23, 25 and 31, it is stated in Slide #23 that "Dissolution slots follow fractures" and there is an accompanying very dramatic photograph of such slots in the Jurassic Sargelu, and on Slide #31 it is stated that fractures are "abundant, open, and effective", that they are "interconnected horizontally" and that they are "tall where bedding is thick".

This AAPG presentation was put together AFTER the CPR was published. It was personally checked and approved by John Stafford. Dr. John C. Lorenz of Fracture Studies LLC has confirmed the latter.

How on earth could this presentation to the AAPG be "superseded by the CPR", as Vvedenskaya told GKP shareholders?

That would be IMPOSSIBLE.

One - almost - runs out of things to say.

[krr13] 28/10/2016 09:04

Broker says new Gulf Keystone is a 'buy', but is an 85% rally possible?08:33 28 Oct 2016The NEW version of Gulf Keystone could rally to 2.7p, according to Cantor, but, analyst Sam Wahab notes that payment arrangements with the KRG remain the key issue."GKP is now a well-capitalised entity," the analyst said. The new version of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (LON:GKP) is a 'buy', so says broker Cantor Fitzgerald, which with a 2.7p target sees some 85% upside to the current share price.It comes after a bruising restructuring saw some indebtedness reduce by US$500mln, to US$100mln, as the majority of the company's equity was handed over to its lenders.Summing up recent events, analyst Sam Wahab in a note says: "Following a turbulent period of corporate activity, GKP has effectively transformed its balance sheet, shredding debt, diluting equity, and divesting assets.He added: "GKP is now a well-capitalised entity, with sufficient resources to grow its production base for sale to the export market in Kurdistan, Iraq."GKP's full focus is now on the Shaikan field, Wahab highlights, though he says the key issue will continue to be whether or not a consistent payment mechanism can be established with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).He notes: "2016 has already seen the semi-autonomous government miss a number of monthly payments."Wahab expects arrears will now have grown to US$64mln, from around US$28mln in June.Nevertheless he highlights that following the restructuring, against a challenging market and civil uncertainty in Iraq, there remains material upside to the GKP share price now that the company's 'burdens' are now partially clear.

[nicebut] 28/10/2016 08:52

O_I,

You are avoiding answering the question yet again.

We know JS and co didn`t agree with ERCE- That isn`t the issue.

The issue is that we weren`t told that there was anything to disagree about- Ie what the problem was. There was a problem- If there wasn`t a problem then SH-6 would be producing oil, yes? The impression, from presentations, was that `All wells were very good producers`.

JG mislead us at the ID when he said SH-6 was `good then bad then very good`... So again no hint of problems that couldn`t be over come- more hints that any *slight* problems *had* been overcome. Anyway the point is GKP didn`t RNS that they couldn`t get SH-6 to flow oil and that they had a problem with water (even if at that stage they didn`t know where it came from).

18 months went by. Which is unacceptable. In that time GKP gave the impression that it was a good producer and DGA upped the OIP partly based on SH-6 drill early information.
TK continued to take huge bonus and v large pay and indeed offload shares, as did his trust Gokana.

[j0ck ewing] 28/10/2016 08:43

Huge bell end :-)

[pocopicu] 28/10/2016 08:29

Huge buy :-)

[hearts1] 28/10/2016 07:56

Morning all oil analysts and ' influential ' investors.

[j0ck ewing] 28/10/2016 07:31

Water, water everywhere...and not a drop to drink.

Good morning all genuines.