Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[giant_canine] 29/8/2022 17:02

Because big boys want lots of cheap stock.

[rogerramjett] 29/8/2022 17:01

So let me get this right. GKP have an 80% interest in 44k bopd at $100

44k x 100 x 0.8 x 300 days per year (conservative) is over a $bn in revenue. As I understand it they have very low extraction costs.

Resource is claimed to be one of the largest discoveries in recent times.

PE must be less than 2

Dividend yield is 30% approximately.

Operating in the region for some time so understand the territory and risks.

Why is this £2.60 still ?

At £10 it would be par value for production. More realistic PE.

Add in the resource and a couple of £bn is perhaps not unrealistic. So why is it valued at £500m ?

[bigdog5] 29/8/2022 16:46

I've noted in the recent past that a few of you rampers lead by highlander7, who hasn't managed to get any of his views/predictions correct in ten years, that you believe the Yanks will be "banging heads together" as regards Baghdad and Erbil in order to arrive at an oil deal. Several of you are in denial still that oily's/service companies have left Kurdistan for fear of being blacklisted and missing out on contracts down South. I suggest you do some research rather than post up quotes from the hosts.

Now bearing in mind Iraq is against the Chinese picking up any more contracts down South and that the Kurds go grizzling to the Yanks for help about absolutely everything how would you think it would play out if the Kurds were to award the Russians/Chinese any more contracts up North? The Russians already own 80% of the infrastructure and yet letters have been sent to the Yanks President begging him to sort out the oil law impasse.

Does the statement "the oil is for all the people of Iraq" not apply to Erbil? Is it a case that Erbil want a massive budget from Baghdad and to be able to take all the revenue from their oil Industry as well? And just where is that revenue ending up because there's always been a lot of articles about the most corrupt area in Iraq and that no one knows how much oil they are exporting and the money isn't reaching the people.

Just another Monday mull.

[shortsqueezer] 29/8/2022 16:16

True but the analysis is flawed , as there is basically just one person here touting takeover tomorrow. I'm convinced it will happen, but only when the politics are sorted. That won't be tomorrow but it may be soon. Meanwhile I be am happy to be paid to wait, with unprecedented divis.

[torchyellow] 29/8/2022 16:05

Very good analysis Roger and food for thought, long term holder here until the lights go off !!!

[rogerramjett] 29/8/2022 15:41

Just had a massive kick in the teeth with a takeover of an oil and gas IP owner. Literally an hour ago.

I've been invested here for 6 months and heard since then about a takeover here and values which I could only dream of. I'm still here for the value and the dividend. Yeah its risky territory. I'm here anyway. I'm seeing both sides of this takeover discussion. What I'm not seeing is a share price that speculates a takeover. Similar to what has just been withdrawn for me today. Even though an offer had been made officially the share price never got close. And that bothers me. I talk about Petroteq.

The only other takeover I've been involved with is GLO. Still not complete but the share price jumped to the offer price on announcement. Offer made by a significant holder. So genuine and will close.

So my question. If an offer is imminent as has been suggested for at least the 6 months I've been here, and the value is likely to be £20 plus the why do we trade at £2.60 ? The market is just not seeing it and is normally right.

Discuss.......ԍ15;

[giant_canine] 29/8/2022 14:10

.........................................................................
TAKEOVER announcement next Thursday Sept 1
BIGDOG re-iterates "CONVICTION BUY and HOLD"
Commenting : " GKP is the most attractive independant E+P on Earth. It has clearly been groomed for sale over the past 18 months ... I expect a friendly deal, however do not be surprised if a competitive bidding war ensues, such is the enormous value of the company's 80% WI operatorship of Shaikan."
Target takeover price 45 pounds +.
.........................

[habshan] 29/8/2022 14:04

Bigdog - "The Kurds keep mentioning that they want dialogue and the issue resolved in accordance with what they believe the Constitution states however it is written "the KRG has exploited ambiguity in Iraq’s constitution"!!!"

And you just believe what you want to believe Sarah.

Professor Brendan O'Leary who actually sat around the table in 2005 and helped write the Constitution, the top legal experts in the field and the British High Court are all of the opinion that there is no ambiguity, that the Kurds interpretation of the Constitution is the correct one, that the PSCs are legal and that the ICG are simply trying it on.

Do some research instead of just blithely believing what you read in the papers.

People on this board clearly know far more about it than Raya Jalabi does.

You're very easily led aren't you Sarah.

[bigdog5] 29/8/2022 13:51

If and when Baghdad enforce their wishes and the TSC's arrive isn't it logical to believe that would affect any value of the company downwards? Like by a massive amount?

Oil law imminent is it Mr Carroll?

Just a Monday mull:-)

[giant_canine] 29/8/2022 13:42

.........................................................................
TAKEOVER announcement next Thursday Sept 1
BIGDOG re-iterates "CONVICTION BUY and HOLD"
Commenting : " GKP is the most attractive independant E+P on Earth. It has clearly been groomed for sale over the past 18 months ... I expect a friendly deal, however do not be surprised if a competitive bidding war ensues, such is the enormous value of the company's 80% WI operatorship of Shaikan."
Target takeover price 45 pounds +.
.........................

[bigdog5] 29/8/2022 13:39

Old news???

No its current and clear evidence that Baghdad is serious this time. Have they made threats involving the traders, buyers and transporters before? Have they threatened the oily's in Kurdistan before? No didn't think so.

I see that Baghdad stopped paying Erbil the budget back in May, which of course is always their first move. Then there's the “It’s by far, the worst crisis between Baghdad and the Kurds since 2003,” one senior Kurdish official said.

The Kurds keep mentioning that they want dialogue and the issue resolved in accordance with what they believe the Constitution states however it is written "the KRG has exploited ambiguity in Iraq’s constitution"!!!

"The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) keeps its production figures secret".

Now why would that be? An article posted here recently stated that Kurdistan is the most corrupted part of Iraq and that $billions have gone "missing". And yet the Kurds point to the Constitution and say that the oil is "for all the people of Iraq"!!

Really? Words and figures differ?

"In a statement, it also said its oil production and trade were unaffected by the dispute, that “investment interest remains and production is expected to increase".

A similar comment to one from them that said "no companies were leaving Kurdistan", lol.

[nestoframpers] 29/8/2022 12:52

Incredible that the FT are quoting what Alan Mohtadi thinks he was about 13 when GKP got 1st oil, he is a refugee in Sweden . Why not ask Malcy ?

[shortsqueezer] 29/8/2022 11:12

Old news now

[punter26] 29/8/2022 10:55

Baghdad threatens action against international buyers of Kurdish oil Move is latest in escalating row over shipments from semi-autonomous region.

Raya Jalabi in Beirut AUGUST 26 2022

( Published in The Finacial Times )




Baghdad has threatened legal action against international buyers of crude oil from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, the latest move in an escalating row over oil exports. This week’s warning letter to buyers from the state-owned oil marketer SOMO is part of efforts to stop the semi-autonomous region exporting oil independently of Baghdad. It follows a landmark Iraq supreme court ruling in February which declared the Iraqi Kurdistan energy industry unconstitutional. Since then, Baghdad has taken an increasingly aggressive stance towards international companies operating in the region, threatening to annul existing contracts and prevent future deals from being brokered. The oil ministry has in recent months launched lawsuits against at least nine international companies over their dealings with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), seeking to nullify their contracts. Those summoned to court in Baghdad include UK-listed Gulf Keystone, Norway’s DNO and Russia’s Gazprom.

The latest move comes amid fears of rising crude prices and tighter global energy supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “This is becoming fairly serious and it’s casting a dark cloud over the energy sector,” said Shwan Zulal of Carduchi Consulting, which specialises in Iraqi Kurdistan. “It can no longer be ignored — it’s going to cause issues for the future of the industry: we’re talking short-to-medium term, in the next few months when production will eventually go down, as oil companies hold back on new development.” On Friday, the KRG condemned Baghdad’s letter to crude oil buyers, saying it was “part of a political fight”. In a statement, it also said its oil production and trade were unaffected by the dispute, that “investment interest remains and production is expected to increase”. Iraq is Opec’s second-largest producer, and currently exports about 3.3 million barrels per day (b/d).

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) keeps its production figures secret, but industry experts peg its production at about 440,000 b/d, most of which it exports. Officials in the KRG have repeatedly dismissed Iraq’s supreme court ruling as a political move. It has initiated multiple legal proceedings against the oil ministry and its minister, Ihsan Ismail. It is appealing Baghdad’s attempts to nullify four companies’ contracts, a KRG official told the FT.

For years, the KRG has exploited ambiguity in Iraq’s constitution to export crude and keep the revenues to maintain some financial independence from Baghdad. While the supreme court ruling will be difficult to implement, it will impact foreign investors, analysts say. “It’s by far, the worst crisis between Baghdad and the Kurds since 2003,” one senior Kurdish official said, “born out of bitter rivalries during the government formation process.” Iraq has been without a functioning government since Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s movement won parliamentary elections last October. At the time of the February court decision, Erbil’s ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), allied with Sadr as he sought to form a government that would exclude factions more closely aligned with Iran.

With state spending hamstrung by the political impasse, Baghdad in effect stopped paying Erbil its share of the federal budget in May. Analysts speculate that Kurdish support for an Iran-backed government might hasten a resolution to the oil dispute. “They could find a way to circumvent the ruling or ignore it temporarily. But is there political will to do that? Baghdad still has a caretaker government with limited powers. Can a deal be struck with this government and have it followed through with the next?,” said Sajad Jiyad, a Baghdad-based fellow with The Century Foundation. Iraq’s low cost of production at a time of high oil prices globally is an added incentive for companies to stay. “Right now, it’s too tempting with these prices for traders not to make deals with the KRG. And for buyers — they simply need the oil,” said Alan Mohtadi, who heads T&S Consulting Energy and Security, which advises companies in the Kurdish oil and gas sector.

[fairenough11] 29/8/2022 09:20

Kurdistan Region: The world's next gas exporter?

[eddie47] 29/8/2022 09:16

'Kurdistan Region: The world's next gas exporter?'