Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[thicktony] 03/7/2020 14:41

M&A from Peel Hunt #SQZ #JSE #CNE #GKP #GENL #SEY #PHAR #PMO

[broadford bay] 03/7/2020 14:39

mac,
I thought Anastasia's abilities & qualifications were in quite another field?

[thicktony] 03/7/2020 14:35

DOW JONES CRUDE-PRICE RISE MAY SPARK OIL TAKEOVERS, MERGERS -- Market TalkThursday, July 02, 2020 03:10:00 PM (GMT)1510 GMT - Oil companies may hit the acquisition trail following a crude-price recovery, says Peel Hunt. Exploration and production firms, particularly those with plentiful cash, are switching focus from survival to growth given the rebound in prices in the last couple of months, the brokerage says.

[broadford bay] 03/7/2020 14:32

GKP was admitted to AIM on 8th Sept-2004, having raised $107,880,000 in the process (the 2004 Accounts also show what money the original partners / founders brought into the business).
Checking thru the Annual Results from 2004 onwards, the total amount of money that various investors have put into GKP can readily be found.

Over the years there have been many share issues, and a couple of major bond issues, to fund operations, and we should take a moment to consider the total historical funding picture.

The total investor funds raised from 2004 to the present are approx. $1,375,736,000.
In addition, of course, we also have Oil Sales Revenues that were earned – and consumed – in normal operations. Total Oil Sales Revenues for the same period were approx. $1,002,745,000.

In total, therefore, we can see that from Sept-2004 thru June-2020, GKP had incoming funds totalling approx. $2,378,481,000.
A nicely rounded-off $2.4Bn works better for me.

After almost 16 years that figure should give “loyal and long-term holders” quite some pause for thought.

The current cash holdings are approx. $142M ($5M coupon will be paid on 25th July and, assuming June’s sales are paid by then, that sum should be down to ca $139M by month’s end.
$73M or so is still owed for Nov-19 thru Feb-20 sales.
We also know that currently invested, but still-to-be returned Capex (to be paid over many, many years in accordance with the PSC Cost Oil terms), is somewhere in the region of $400 - $450M.
A Dividend of $49.1M has been paid and some shares have been repurchased, at a cost of $50M (money down the drain IMO).
Current bond debt is ca $100M (repayment is due latest 25th July 2023) with a further $200M being available (rate static, but issue price to be determined) as and when required.

So, summa sumarrum, what sort of picture does this paint?

Yes, of course on the positive side the company has a licence to exploit a heavy oil discovery with X barrels, proven and projected, and the licence still has N years to run.

But, all that money has been spent and the field output is still a tad less than 40,000bopd. The two production facilities are not getting any younger, and further substantial sums will need spending on these and on the older wells.

Major, unresolved issues remain to be dealt with – in the next couple of years mainly Gas Production, Sour Gas Disposal & Water Production, and these will cost a LOT more money. Don’t forget also that any future FDP that is written to include the Triassic will need well-filled pockets – and very competent drilling- and subsurface management teams.

And of course, the oil produced has to be transported 1,000km using a pipeline subject to a Sovereign Agreement between Turkey and Iraq (not the Kurdish Region of Iraq). And of course, the customer is very often cash-strapped.

So, let us be honest about it all: GKP management has not proven to be the best.

The shares have not been good for LTHs – but they have been particularly good, and continue to be good, for those who trade on the naive optimism of smaller, retail holders. Here I include those Institutions, who trade the pants off it within the notification limits but who are portrayed by some as wiser and more constant “good guys”. LOL!

Pay no attention to those on the chat boards that keep repeating the mantra “it’s all about the barrels” and be warned of those pushing the message that “SH has a column of oil 950m thick”.
A perusal of the SH Block Stratigraphic Images will show that it’s less like a rectangular layer cake and more like a series of interconnected humps or -domes. It might well be 950m at the thickest part but it’s certainly not a nice, slab-like 280km² of oil-bearing formations 950m thick. It's challenging and getting more so by the day.

15 Years on, $2.37Bn cash consumed so far – and $50M given back as a little “thank You”.

The company has just been a well-stocked feeding trough for mediocre managers, entrusted with shareholder funds. That might soon be brought to an end.

As mac has already confirmed, there is some bad news heading this way, and smaller retail investors should be careful about letting their enthusiasm run away with them.

Qualifications:
I have not bothered to include all of the “Warrants Exercised” sums received, nor have I bothered to include all of the “Bank Interest” received, and there are various other small “incoming̶1; sums that I have omitted: in the greater scheme of things these are miniscule and do not change the overall picture.

If I have omitted any significant items I’ll gladly review and amend.

[mcfly02] 03/7/2020 14:27

From SlurryScot/Highlander on the LSE 🤡

😃
Say it often enough and it becomes true, well it does to the gullible.


🤡
Jon Ferrier was addressing what the GKP IR Manager, Anastasia Vvedenskaya, had said to the company lawyers about OM63

😃
Anastasia was pushed from the company ! Can you prove that this was said to the company lawyers ??? Or are you making it up again 🤷‍a94;️

🤡
and since HR are trained to assess people I can only assume she was 100% accurate..

😃
Again this is just your speculation dressed up as brainwashing fact.

🤡
Hopefully the next GKP CEO will have enough sense / be strongly advised to avoid OM63 and his horrific niece.

😃
That might not be his decision to make.

🤡
IMO

😃
Your opinion is that of a blog nobody !
Did I tell you that the letter was BoD approved ???

[mcfly02] 03/7/2020 14:23

From SlurryScot/Highlander on the LSE 🤡

😃
Say it often enough and it becomes true, well it does to the gullible.


🤡
Jon Ferrier was addressing what the GKP IR Manager, Anastasia Vvedenskaya, had said to the company lawyers about OM63

😃
Anastasia was pushed from the company ! Can you prove that this was said to the company lawyers ??? Or are you making it up again 🤷‍a94;️

🤡
and since HR are trained to assess people I can only assume she was 100% accurate..

😃
Again this is just your speculation dressed up as brainwashing fact.

🤡
Hopefully the next GKP CEO will have enough sense / be strongly advised to avoid OM63 and his horrific niece.

😃
That might not be his decision to make.

🤡
IMO

😃
Your opinion is that of a blog nobody !
Did I tell you that the letter was BoD approved ???

[thicktony] 03/7/2020 14:20

#GKP in PLAYYet ANOTHER US Hedge fund appears holding over 6m shares. Precision Capital based big Apple.https://t.co/zCCuePmhY0

[mcfly02] 03/7/2020 14:19

From SlurryScot/Highlander on the LSE 🤡

😃
Say it often enough and it becomes true, well it does to the gullible.


🤡
Jon Ferrier was addressing what the GKP IR Manager, Anastasia Vvedenskaya, had said to the company lawyers about OM63

😃
Anastasia was pushed from the company ! Can you prove that this was said to the company lawyers ??? Or are you making it up again 🤷‍a94;️

🤡
and since HR are trained to assess people I can only assume she was 100% accurate..

😃
Again this is just your speculation dressed up as brainwashing fact.

🤡
Hopefully the next GKP CEO will have enough sense / be strongly advised to avoid OM63 and his horrific niece.

😃
That might not be his decision to make.

🤡
IMO

😃
Your opinion is that of a blog nobody !
Did I tell you that the letter was BoD approved ???

[pensioner2] 03/7/2020 14:01

Volume 270k @ 2pm. Looks like another day of big after hours buys going in.