Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[owdbuffer] 31/1/2017 13:32

The cloud cuckoo brigade need to ask themselves the question, "Why hasn't GKP been sold?" It's all about the oil! No it isn't, its all about Kurdistan. Sure there's a lot of oil and it's cheap to extract, but the world is awash with oil in safer places than this.

I'm sure that the owners would take any sensible offer, after all they are making money at £1.00 per share and would be getting out of a dangerous corrupt country. So why hasn't GKP been sold? What happened to the data room brigade and Sinopec?

Either the MNR are the problem, or the likely instability of Kurdistan in 2017, or both is deterring investors. We have to face the fact that after the fall of Mosul there could be a fight over Kirkuk as the ICG tries to get it back. The KRG coming home from the war to a land totally unfit for heroes and split between the political parties is another possible problem. Reading Rudaw over the last few months I pick up uncomfortable vibes that many Kurds feel that the Oil Companies are in some way stealing "their oil", with the collusion of greedy corrupt politicians. I could go on and on with problems, huge debts that can never be paid etc, but you take the point I hope.

Again, we have to face the fact that GKP don't have any oil, only a licence to extract and pump it. Three out of four PSC's have gone for one reason or another and it would be easy for the MNR to argue that GKP are not fulfilling their obligation by investing and increasing production and take back the PSC. the mess could take years to sort out and who could get damages out of a broke KRG? Ask DANA how they are getting on.

I'll stay in for the ride because I haven't much to lose now, but I hope my eyes are open to the risk of losing the lot.

If you didn't like reading this, you can always go back to reading about the multi-baggers and the zillions of barrels of oil. Avoid reading anything by Bigdog and Mr Roper though, you don't want their logic to get in the way of your dreams.

[mr roper] 31/1/2017 12:25

morning ccr,

Stu..at least someone is awake!

[nestoframpers] 31/1/2017 12:00

Yes JB I thought Trump was a doer , he is dragging his feet it seems.

[gkphero] 31/1/2017 11:55

I don't know what him and Putin are waiting for.

The West and Russia need to wipe out the middle east and get all the oil out, without going through a corrupt middle man imo.

They are a waste of air.

[gkphero] 31/1/2017 11:51

Has Trump nuked the middle east yet?

[sidesplitting] 31/1/2017 11:38

Has Trevanian disappeared since too?

[nestoframpers] 31/1/2017 11:22

Here's a refresher , no giggling at the back..


annamama 31 Jul'13 - 17:03 - 305981 of 305986 4 0



Here's my translation of the second follow-up post from Trevanian. Took me ages!
Maybe BBBS would like to read it, perhaps someone could copy it over saying "BBBS - about inclined OWC" or something.

-----------------------------------------------

A little update

I have continued my research around the conditions for a linked super field in the area around Atrush. After knowledge gained in recent times about inclined "oil water contacts" (OWC) and how aquifers act when they pass through faults, I had to go back to my material and look at what we de facto have to go on. And perhaps especially identify the questions we need answers to in order to prove the hypotheses or at least improve the possibility that I'm on the right track.



Like I have flagged since a long time ago, the conditions are good, based on known wells, seismic and lots of other little pieces of the puzzle, that we at least have 2 big interlinked fields, "the north field" and "the south field".

North field
Atrush, Swara Tika
with undrilled/untested structures
Sariyah (in the Sheikh Adi block), Koshka (now East Swara Tika), Mangesh and maybe Gara and Bakrman

I'm more and more hesitant about Bakrman.



South field
Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr, Al Qust and Ain Sifni (Simrit) and maybe Summail (doubtful in the Jurassic)
with undrilled/untested structures
"Shaitrush" Footwall (the area between current Shaikan and Atrush)

All drill data we have seen so far are keeping the possibility of connectivity open, in some cases like in Atrush and Swara Tika they can be regarded as likely if you look at the seismic and statements from involved companies.



But if all is linked together? In a super field?

The big stumbling block for a whole interlinked field is OWC. Atrush and Shaikan have accounted for a big difference in the estimated OWC. The water is expected to be significantly higher up in Atrush than in Shaikan, this is something that is normally a strong indication against a connection between the fields.

This should also mean that Ber Bahr and Sheikh Adi probably would have a whole different OWC than the Sariayah structure just next to it.

There is however an explanation model that could fit in with the area and create conditions for the big interlinked field and could tie together the "north field" and "south field". It is today unproved and can seem unusual but that it is possible and have support in litterature, area geology, hydrology and topography.



The basis of and one of the conditions for this explanation model is that a hydrodynamic aquifer is active under the reservoirs. This means that rain water has been collected and trickled down into the Jurassic/Triassic formation up in the mountains. It has been possible to establish that several of these formations are by the surface or very shallow in the mountains north of Atrush and could be loading zones for a deep aquifer.

Other shallower aquifer have been confirmed to be loading in that area. The deep aquifer must thereafter lead the water down and under Atrush and the other fields in order to somewhere have an outlet. If it didn't have an outlet the water would remain static and admittedly cause pressure on reservoirs above but it would probably make a connection impossible between "north" and "south".

Both ShaMaran and Gulf Keystone have flagged for that they think they have an aquifer under their fields. Gulf Keystone furthermore have noticed pressure changes like the tide day/night which indicates that the aquifer somewhere reaches the surface. The moon can not influence it otherwise.

GKP have also said that they are dealing with a large volume of fluids (including the aquifer).

The large fault in the middle of the Atrush block, which is dividing the Atrush Hanging Wall (where the Atrush field is) and the Atrush Footwall (which hasn't been drilled yet), can be what has created the big difference in OWC between Atrush and Shaikan.

For Atrush and Shaikan to be connected we have to explain the several hundred metres of OWC difference somehow.

A hydrodynamic aquifer (ie one with flowing water) can create an inclined OWC, ie a situation where the water is at a different level in different parts of the fields, this should according to litterature be more noticable if the permeability in the field is high and the oil is heavy, which is the case in eg Atrush.

The anticlines in the Zagros mountains are known for being able to create these inclined OWCs. OWC can gradually change up or down when it passes through faults, which we have many of in Atrush, not just the big fault, but if the water flow is strong, OWC can actually incline because of that the water in a dynamic aquifer tends to follow the law of the least resistance in its formation.

Atrush is also special in that the formations seem to have cracked up and linked together the formations and mixed the oil. An aquifer which otherwise would have moved within "its own" formation (confined aquifer) can therefore have migrated up and down there (unconfined aquifer).

In Atrush it seems like we might have a several hundred metres thick aquifer (tested water under upper Butmah) which is remarkable in itself.

For the OWC to be able to change several hundred metres in just around 10 kilometres, which must be seen as fairly extreme, the flow must be large and since a very long time ago a path must have been marked out for the water deep down.

So we should look for formations with a high ability to dissolve, for example karst and plaster (?). Sarki/lower Butmah is such a possible formation, which also agrees with where OWC is estimated to be in Atrush and where they probably think they have found OWC in Shaikan. When GKP also have indicated the possibility of a bigger aquifer they have used the test results from water from Bijeel-1 which also seems to have been taken in Sarki/lower Butmah judging from the depth.



If you look at Sarki/lower Butmah, that has also shown to have a hydrodynamic aquifer in the eastern part of Kurdistan and has pushed up temperated water from the depth in spring wells. The problematic thing about this formation is that we have to travel far to find a possible outlet for an aquifer in Butmah. We have to go far out in the western desert of Iraq, to the area around Rutbah which admittedly is known for its availability of water from wells, it is actually called Rutbah Wells.

It seems unlikely that water from the Zagros mountains could flow all the way there but I haven't found anything else yet.

What I'm focusing on now, hopefully with a little help from the upcoming AT-3 report is to try and identify which formation could be probable for an aquifer and follow it from start to end in order to possibly establish if it is hydrodynamic.



I'm also trying to find material that could give more concrete examples of similar situations (like inclined OWC). Furthermore I can note that the big Rumailah field in southern Iraq have just an inclined OWC because of hydrodynamic aquifers.

Of course also information that could invalidate my reasoning is also of interest.And Atrush in itself is an exciting field as it is.

This is kind of where I'm at now.



Trevanian
Of significance, on 12 September 2012, Afren announced that exploration drilling had commenced at the East Simrit prospect (Simrit-3 well). The Simrit-3 well is located approximately 10 km east of the successful Simrit-2 discovery well, and is exploring the eastern extent of the large scale Simrit anticline.

The well reached a final maximum depth of 12,300 ft in the Triassic Kurra-Chine formation and has encountered hydrocarbon bearing intervals in the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs.

A total of 9 DST’s were carried in the Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous reservoirs reaching a cumulative rate of 6,293 bopd. Of the 9 tests, the Kurra Chine reservoirs produced at rates of 6,043 bopd 36° API gravity crude oil with 4.1mmscfg/d on a 64/64th choke with a WHP of 645 psi.

The test of the Mus/Adaiyah produced 250 bopd of 14°API gravity but confirmed the petrophysical interpretation that an Oil Water Contact (OWC) had been intersected by producing 1,164 bwpd with the oil when flowed to surface. The Cretaceous heavy oil reservoirs did not deliver oil to surface using conventional testing methodology.



-------------------------------------------------

And here is Trevanian's post



--------------------------------

But all I have is plenty of indicators. No proof yet.

Food for thought:

When Simrit-3 found an oil-water-contact it took quite a while to test. The testing seemed to coincide with Atrush-3 doing a test BELOW the calculated FWL for Atrush and not surprisingly it tested water at that level. So, we have water being tested at Atrush and Simrit in the summer. In Atrush the old well Atrush-2 interestingly enough was designated as a monitoring well (that has since changed, it is now going to produce).

Atrush-2 had its target depth just below the calculated FWL.

All of a sudden Shaikan is ordered to stop production between 4-19 September.

If anyone would like to test an aquifer, for instance with a tracer test, you can't have oil produced above the aquifer. Nobody has so far come forward and said why Shaikan production was stopped, except that it was ordered by the KRG.

Oh yes, Simrit-3 was finally completed as a "Produced Water Disposal Well", normally you try to use wells that sit on top of deep aquifers for that...

Have a nice evening

/Trevanian

[fake taxi] 31/1/2017 11:16

Well JF did say they aren`t looking for a sale, he must be confident of growth and producing a sustainable business. That will be why him and the board piled in and filled their pockets with "golden tickets" at this bargain price.

Oh wait a minute!

Who were the last ones to actually pay cash for a share of GKP????

I think even Inspector Clouseau could solve this puzzle in 10 mins.

[oilman63] 31/1/2017 09:56

Hearts

I am jealous. I think the Reverand (Hons) is still licking his wounds from the Butt kicking he got last week and doesn't like it when someone shows him and his crew up for the conmen they are.

Not to worry as soon as the Top Posts board becomes clean he will return to preach a fresh barrels sermon.

The comet to the promised land is coming.

Remember WACO

Oilman63 (25 mtr swimming badge)

[sir robert mittleworth] 31/1/2017 09:18

Roper and CCR - two giants of the investing community that any novice investor should always take note of, IMHO.

[shaftdrive1] 31/1/2017 08:59

I understand you Mr R!

[ccr1958] 31/1/2017 08:26

Morning Mr R , Yes just one of the Plants on here :)

[mr roper] 31/1/2017 08:05

Robert PLant!

[ccr1958] 31/1/2017 07:53

Big Log !!!

[j0ck ewing] 31/1/2017 07:28

Typical running to teacher tactics. Pathetic.

Fiddling whilst Rome burns as per.

[hearts1] 31/1/2017 06:29

I've just been issued with a clause 11 warning. Looks like they are trying their usual tactics.Looks like they are using the ' bobobob' multi to provoke you into a reply - then reporting you. Makes no difference - the share price is still 1.2p with the trend still in free fall.SELL.

[bigdog5] 30/1/2017 23:14

Fake, be easy on him. He's just demonstrating that he's now finally acknowledged the reality here. Obviously reminded daily by his errors and utter denial which have resulted in huge losses. The poor schmuck is descending into insanity.