Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 16/3/2016 11:20

Roper, confident the IMF can get money to the Producers on a monthly basis who are going to be well down the KRG's priority list who we should all realise have a talent for misplacing money?

JF has to and will arrange for something (Hawrami permitting of course) that will stick imo as there's no way the MNR can be trusted.

[mr roper] 16/3/2016 11:06

Michael Knights..wonder how KITT is?

[nestoframpers] 16/3/2016 10:56

Looks like Zor has been right all along , well done to him if it turns out to actually happen .

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 10:25

oliver666, what OTHER Washington Institute?

Meanwhile...

BIOGRAPHY

Michael Knights is a Lafer fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and the Gulf Arab states.

Dr. Knights has traveled extensively in Iraq and the Gulf states, published widely on security issues for major media outlets such as Jane's IHS, and regularly briefs U.S. government policymakers and U.S. military officers on regional security affairs. Dr. Knights worked as the head of analysis and assessments for a range of security and oil companies, directing information collection teams in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen. He has worked extensively with local military and security agencies in Iraq, the Gulf states, and Yemen.

Dr. Knights has undertaken extensive research on lessons learned from U.S. military operations in the Gulf during and since 1990. He earned his doctorate at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and has worked as a defense journalist for the Gulf States Newsletter and Jane's Intelligence Review.
hxxp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/view/knights-michael

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 10:24

DesertDing, hold out your boots. Prepare to receive the bounty.

[desertding] 16/3/2016 10:22

LOFL Zor,, Hope you're right, Cheers DD

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 10:19

"Knights lack the skills to understand the systemic issues..."

So, you think he got the job at the Washington Institute because his dad knows Henry Kissinger?

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 10:02

rafthorney, the political decision has the blessing of the KRG. It's a decision prompted by the IMF's Self-Monitored Program.

Both the ICG and KRG have to get their political and legal houses in order or they don't receive diddley.

The KRG have to find ways to make what appears to be capitulation to Baghdad palatable for their independence-expecting population. It appears that they've chosen to present them with the alternative of starvation.

When given a choice, most people choose eating regularly over an annual fireworks display.

[rafthorney] 16/3/2016 09:53

Federal Iraq has made a “politicalR21; decision to shut off off Kirkuk oil from KRG, reducing region’s exports by 1/4 hxxp://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/kirkuk-crude-shut-despite-export-pipeline-restart-18329/ …


well,my reply would be to withdraw support of the iraq army. And go in and turn on the taps again,i thought the krg were in control of kirkuk anyway.

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 09:47

This week in The Hotspur...

Tough of the Market

zorsupas works afternoons in a factory and enjoys fish and chips. However, he's also a keen amateur think tank with a regional focus. Follow his adventures as he takes on the snooty Lafer Fellows at the regional finals.

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 09:33

Continued...

IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY
The United States should seize this opportunity to bring Baghdad and the KRG back together, helping them reach temporary agreement on a common economic policy for oil sales, international aid, and customs issues. With determined U.S. and international mediation, both sides might recognize the midterm benefits of reintegrating their economies, if only temporarily. This could in turn encourage broader long-term cooperation.

The benefits to the KRG are obvious. International mediation could help Kurdistan get its fair share of federal revenues, reserves, and multi-billion-dollar aid packages, while IMF conditionality and monitoring could help KRG officials reform the economy and restore shattered public trust in its revenue and spending figures. In addition, a more benign relationship with Baghdad could eventually net other benefits for Erbil, such as airspace control and backing for sub-sovereign loans.

The benefits to Baghdad are more subtle, but quite compelling. Renewing the effort to resolve its disputes with the KRG could intensify international backing for prompt delivery of IMF and other aid packages. The divisive Kirkuk issue would be put on the back burner once negotiations and international monitoring forced the two parties to stop fighting over the oil-rich area. These and other developments might also encourage the Kurds to request that Turkey withdraw its controversial military base at Bashiqa, a KRG-held area near Mosul. For his part, Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi could lock in Kurdish cooperation for his reform plans. And in the longer term, Baghdad would be assured that Washington will always consult with it on U.S.-Kurdish affairs.

The benefits to the United States are no less compelling: keeping the Mosul offensive on track, lessening tension between two key allies, increasing U.S. leverage in Baghdad and Erbil, and rescuing the Kurds from economic meltdown. As with Mosul Dam, a little extra effort now would be a lot less costly than cleaning up after a disaster.
hxxp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/using-international-financial-aid-to-improve-baghdad-krg-relations

Michael Knights is a Lafer Fellow with The Washington Institute.

zorsupas is a laugh-a-minute and an altogether fine fellow with The New GKP Board. He told everyone this stuff last year. When he's not beating Lafer Fellows to the punch by about 8 months (or 2 months, with respect to the IMF), he's working at his afternoon factory job.

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 09:26

Mar 15, 2016.

Using International Financial Aid to Improve Baghdad-KRG Relations

Planned financial aid packages can help prevent economic meltdown in Iraqi Kurdistan and reduce tensions between Baghdad and Erbil.

(Excerpt)

HOW COULD INTERNATIONAL AID CHANGE THINGS?
Unlike federal Iraq, which holds reserves of $50 billion, the KRG has no reserves and is a sub-sovereign entity, meaning it cannot directly receive large financial aid packages from most international institutions. Yet the package that the IMF will likely offer to Baghdad soon -- perhaps $6-10 billion to be disbursed in 2016-2018 -- has been designed to help all of Iraq's eighteen provinces, including the three provinces that compose the KRG. Similarly, recent World Bank investments in Iraq have had a Kurdistan component, such as the $255 million road improvement plan that is funding federal projects and some smaller KRG projects.

The IMF Staff-Monitored Program currently in place (as a forerunner to a fully funded Stand-By Arrangement) is charged with overseeing Iraq's execution of budget commitments and ensuring that the state makes agreed savings without building up further arrears to domestic and international creditors. This includes monitoring whether the KRG is paid its share of revenue -- which Baghdad would likely interpret to mean 17 percent of net actual revenues per month after the deduction of hefty sovereign expenses (i.e., for defense, parliament, and other federal institutions). Yet in order to claim its share of the federal budget and international aid packages, the KRG would need to resume the transfer of 550,000 barrels of oil per day to the federal oil marketer, as agreed in the budget. The IMF would then want to see that Iraq was making mutually agreed budget cuts, not simply hitting its targets by cutting one portion of the country -- the KRG -- out of the spending plan.

At current oil prices and Iraqi export levels, the KRG could expect to receive perhaps $350 million per month for providing 550,000 bpd, plus another $150-270 million per month from aid packages given to Baghdad by the IMF, other institutions, and states such as Germany and Japan. The Kurds might also be granted some latitude to export any excess oil beyond the committed 550,000 bpd. The net result could turn out to be better for the KRG than full reliance on independent exports for the next two or three years. Better yet, the arrangement would be underwritten by an international monitoring regime -- the first deal of this kind for the Kurds since the UN gave them a 17 percent share of oil-for-food proceeds in the 1990s.

In all likelihood, the main challenge in striking this kind of deal will be gaining Baghdad's assent. For years, the central government sought to keep the KRG from exporting oil independently, but since 2014 it has come to realize that carrying Kurdistan's 1.4 million state employees is a net drain on the federal budget. Baghdad is now crowing over the KRG's economic distress, which is worse than Baghdad's own situation only because the state has been liquidating its reserves at a rate that would fully deplete them within the next year or so if continued. Letting the Kurds back into revenue sharing and giving them a slice of international aid packages is not Baghdad's preference, and the KRG is going through a painful domestic political crisis that will make it difficult for Kurdish leaders to make public concessions to Baghdad. What is needed is an effective mediator.
hxxp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/using-international-financial-aid-to-improve-baghdad-krg-relations

[zorsupas] 16/3/2016 09:24

Strong buy on MX Oil.

[hectorscrackhouse] 16/3/2016 09:03

strewth,

That sounds like a catfight between Dan and Olivier. The only remaining decision is in which medium the bout is to occur: mud or jello.

[stucom] 16/3/2016 09:00

probably found out Zen had bought 1,000 shares and wants total control?

[stucom] 16/3/2016 08:53

morning Mr R!.....sadly,you are now surrounded by a circus,full of nutters on here! i thought it was bad a year or so ago,perhaps some still had hopes of a 'going concern' with the new iraqi leadership (dont laff!) and a, cough,payment schedule/s. being at the starting post with the gate firmly shut has been tooooooo much,even for the lth's.
now a new leaders reveals himself (lol) from jan '16,bringing a 'fount of all knowledge' postings (over 1500 since mid jan)to lead the gkpers to a new IMFrecoveryland. wonder why the markets aint listening? still,i COULD load up at this sp,knowing ive got 170p to sell in december!...another donut,anyone?

[onetomany] 16/3/2016 08:32

Hearing positive things at the minute. Now long.

[mr roper] 16/3/2016 08:26

expecting a partial recapitalization attempt with a massive discount to the share price but I hope I'm wrong and they announce a farm in.

[terry hardacre] 16/3/2016 08:20

5tah - 16 Mar 2016 - 08:00 - 474037 of 474039 - 6immoral to try and get someone sacked from work for no good reason.Fairly obvious. And your point is?

[onetomany] 16/3/2016 08:19

Here it comes?