Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 28/9/2022 10:06

Trading below NAV.

[marktime1231] 27/9/2022 17:33

Actually no new news on NAV progress since the heads-up in May, some inconsistent figures in the report about pipeline commissioning schedule, a shameful delay unto the end of October for the Q2 dividend (b'stards), net income coverage of the dividend very much narrower because the revenue yoy was flattish while fees and costs are up >50% (AUM rising way ahead of income), mostly because of execution slippage which means new capacity has not been commissioned, blamed on supply chain and network connection problems. No news on further pipeline expansion, and the premium has just vanished so future funding is tight.

There is good news too of course. Commissioning starting to pick up, funds required to deliver the current pipeline are in hand, etc.

The impact of exchange rate moving sharply etc "under review" really unhelpful!

And the government starting to review whether, while still aiming for 2050 net-zero, there is a more secure and economic way to get there eg not just ploughing ahead with intermittent renewables, unless we match it with the security of long duration storage we might be better off with fossil fuels for longer, a disconnect in the UK energy strategy until now which Gresham House observes (using indirect words) has been inflating GRIDs prospects.

Let's not pretend we are happy the share price has slumped back to June levels, 155-160p probably where NAV has got to.

[cruelladeville] 27/9/2022 08:57

All looking good at GRID looking at the results and dividend RNSs thus morning.

[igoe104] 27/9/2022 07:17

Big jump in thd Nav and further jumps expected as they increase the pipeline.

Dividend payment the end of October.

[nerja] 23/9/2022 16:47

Making me twitchy, was dying to top up, but dangerous levels now for the markets and a real good chance they might sell it off tonight over the pond.

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 16:37

I think it just a lack news .it making people twitchy

[nerja] 23/9/2022 14:32

Very surprised if the yanks buy the market going into a weekend but you never know.

[nickrl] 23/9/2022 13:55

Well we've had a good run up and top slicing is sensible as far better opportunities opening up elsewhere in sectors that aren't subject to govt fiddling.

[tartshagger] 23/9/2022 13:46

The new energy minister is believed to want to stop all new wind and solar developments in favour of fracking shale gas and subsidising new previously uneconomic n sea oil and gas fields. Clearly heavily influenced by the fossil fuel lobby - which has penetrated to the heart of the new cabinet - he is on record as denying the reality of climate change and has stated repeatedly that onshore windfarms represent a medieval windmill technology that should be pulled down and replaced with fracking rigs. Obviously investors can see what's coming next and are bailing out

[cruelladeville] 23/9/2022 13:40

Profits are being taken to recycle elsewhere. Compulsive value emerging elsewhere presently.

[marktime1231] 23/9/2022 12:59

Well something has knocked the wind out of the sails here. Kind of pulls the plug on the idea of a fund raise at 175p if that was being schemed.

Studying the uk energy balance I was wondering whether GRID was enjoying a bumper time, we have been turning on gas peaker plant at key times recently. But the share price falling back nearly 20p from the peak over a week is rather more interesting.

Profit taking or ?

[nerja] 23/9/2022 11:52

I think it’s wait time critical the S&P holds 3710 if that fails the bottom could well be a lot lower, all imho

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 11:42

I think you could be right .could be good buying oputinuty soon

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 11:41

Are you saying moemement stock fall and start of a stock market crash

[nerja] 23/9/2022 09:43

Rolling over now, the solar wind funds are also starting to roll over, in the past when the market leaders start to roll it has led to the big fall , we shall see if it’s a signal once again

[marktime1231] 21/9/2022 15:54

Of course there is a delay, dividend announcement was due in August and we are mostly through September. They announced in May we could expect a Q2 dividend announcement in August and they have delayed it, it is 22 Sep and they have not announced it still ... so that is a delay. We might reasonably have expected to go ex-div by now and payment should be imminent according to a normal quarterly schedule ... what is the point of quarterly dividends if they don't pay them quarterly, Q2 slipping in to Q3 at this rate.

Aaaaagh. I was frustrated before and now annoyed that you are making excuses for them. Why! When you spoke to IR did you ask why the rns did not announce what they are prepared to tell enquirers in private?

One of the conditions of the May share issue was that the new shares would qualify for the Q2 dividend and we haven't had it, we haven't even been told when yet. That is not acceptable.

The shareholder-facing Gresham House people need to up their game, communicate reliably and follow a predictable calendar of events. Or investors will lose faith, especially those here for the dividend who rely on the income.

[cruelladeville] 21/9/2022 13:43

RNS Number : 0519A. Notice for 27th September including webinar for investors. Should be worth signing up for, I reckon.

[cruelladeville] 21/9/2022 12:43

Investor relations at GRID confirmed to me this morning that audited NAV and dividend declaration are scheduled for 27th. They said there is no delay. Everything going as planned.

[marktime1231] 21/9/2022 11:46

H1 results will be a historic half-year report and financials to June ... what we need is a current trading update with income performance, progress on commissioning assets, NAV since June. We were already told roughly the H1 situation in May eg to expect NAV 140-145p at end June.

STILL NO MENTION OF THE DIVIDEND.

OK, sorry for shouting, the H1 report may well include all of those things. This rns resolves that there is life at GRID after all following three months of silence, and they are ignoring the expectation of a Q2 dividend announcement overdue since August.

[jonwig] 21/9/2022 07:11

H1 results on 27/09. Should resolve some of the questions raised here recently.

[pavey ark] 16/9/2022 09:07

Sold a couple of thousand this morning.....trimming down.

Still think there's a place for these in my income/renewables fund but it was getting a bit big.

A lot of competition now but it is a very big and expanding market.

[marktime1231] 15/9/2022 20:20

Just reminded myself that in January GRID said they had 415MW in construction for completion during 2022. Well if there have been no go-lives so far this year then progress must be backing up. Should we be expecting a flurry of NAV-enhancing news, or some slippage into H1 2023 perhaps?

Yes the UK pipeline looks pretty full and funded, but a move in to new international markets (please be the US) will need major funds especially if the move includes operational assets. If GRID can sell stock at a hefty premium to NAV it would make acquiring operational UK assets viable too.

Are there co-investments where GRID can increase its stake? What about investing in existing sites to increase duration 1hr to 2hrs or 4hrs, maybe coupling LFP with flow batteries? What about joint ventures with solar and wind farm developers who are increasingly incorporating storage in their plans? Easy routes to create value.

GRID is so well funded it is able to accelerate the business while others in the sector might be struggling to keep up because suddenly using debt finance at base + 3% not so attractive . Yes it would be tempting to restrain the pace so that income can progress the dividend, but Gresham House earn their money from expanding assets. Heading in to a European winter energy crisis. Go for it.

[cruelladeville] 15/9/2022 19:31

Do GRID need to raise more money? I had thought that with money from institutional investors and agreed finance deals in place, everything they planned is already fully funded? Not sure taking on more early stage projects at this time would be an entirely good thing. Going flat out for more facilities or into new markets might well detract the management from the commitments they already have coming down the track?

[marktime1231] 15/9/2022 18:27

Or the next issue at 175p on its way?