Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 15/6/2023 08:02

I'm afraid we are a environment where investors are looking for any excuse to sell.

[waterloo01] 15/6/2023 07:47

Good results from Gore St this AM. NAV up, revenue up and divi up.

No mention of capacity price issues.

[nickrl] 14/6/2023 21:30

@marktime those conditions will drive demand for more ancillary services from ESO as less synchronous generation on the system the more batteries need to be called on the system to manage frequency swing. That said the fundamental issue now is the ESO is being swamped with bids for ancillary services so GRID adding another 200MW is going to create a race to the bottom on auction pricing. There is still big daily swings on half hour pricing though for them to boost income through trading but without PPAs they have to trade in the balancing market and every other battery wants a slice.

Reality was that last years power spike was an aberration albeit the long run price will now be higher but then so is the cost of building these. share price got ahead of itself last year so pushing back to having enough margin for lower run power prices.

[marktime1231] 14/6/2023 16:31

A month ago we were promised commissioning of 4 projects, mostly being built by Statera, delivering 200 MW into the live portfolio within "a couple of months". No news. It is the erosion of management cred and the continuing failure to execute the plan, original or revised, which has predictably driven GRID to a discount. As you say market prices are slumping, network demand keeps setting new record lows, we are tapping in to surplus hydro from Norway and surplus nuclear from France.

Not sure where this will end, but right now we don't need to hear about expansion strategy or reward schemes it all rests on generating income.

[waterloo01] 14/6/2023 16:06

nope. i see they have some negative pricing in some Nordic countries esp.

[cc2014] 14/6/2023 14:02

The market is not liking the combination of falling power prices and increasing cost of debt.

[marktime1231] 25/5/2023 21:24

Well it is hardly a vote of confidence to be so far short of target, and is way below the funds required for the proposed projects. Or have they trimmed the pipeline. Oh dear.

Maybe a pause while delayed income catches up would have been a better strategy after all. Still no news on commissioning progress.

Hard not to conclude this is a terrific venture going wrong.

[speedsgh] 25/5/2023 18:17

£50m raised against a target of £80m. Not too shabby in the context of the current awful fundraising environment.

Result of Issue and Total Voting Rights -

GRID surprises analysts with £50m raise to fund US expansion -

[marktime1231] 19/5/2023 12:24

That was a really good summary of broker perspective. Some on the sell side saying this will be an attractive diversification and lowers the risk of long term income. Combining solar with longer duration battery storage an obviously good strategy. Others sharing my disappointment asking where the rest of the money will come from to implement the shrinking and delayed portfolio pipeline. You have to agree with the conclusion that expenditure has run too far ahead of income, mostly because of the extra time it is taking new projects to complete. Should fund raising and portfolio expansion pause to allow income to come through?

Yes if you are income investor, let projects catch up to put some shine back on the yield.

No if you are a portfolio manager getting paid according to AUM and doing deals.

What if you are a NAV growth trader or share price speculator, where do you think things will turn in the short term? What would the effect be of having to borrow to fill the funding gap, not just on income but on perceived value? If and when delayed projects go live will NAV momentum be restored?

Well unusually it is a week-long placing so you would think that for the time being the share price will be held at the offer price of 155.5p. But no, there are open market buyers at 156-156.5p. Go figure! Maybe there is more appetite for GRID than I expected, with punters expecting the share price to return to a premium shortly.

[cruelladeville] 19/5/2023 10:50

Offer to shareholders via Rex at 155.5p doesn't look much of a bargain does it?

[speedsgh] 18/5/2023 16:12

GRID tests fragile market with £80m fund raise for US expansion -

... Analysts mostly welcomed the fund raise, saying Iliad offered good diversification and was in line with a broadening of the remit last year.

However, there is a risk of ‘cash drag’ should GRID decide not to proceed with the project after doing due diligence and have nowhere to invest the money.

Winterflood’s Emma Bird said: ‘We believe the fund’s diversification into the US is a positive development and enhances the fund’s appeal.’

Numis analysts Gavin Trodd and Colette Ord said: ‘Management had flagged its intention to invest overseas and given GRID’s already notable market share of the UK battery market we can understand the logic. It will be interesting to see if investors are happy to support the new assets with additional equity.’

Stifel’s Sachin Saggar was concerned at the timing of the fund raise as wholesale revenues in the UK were falling. He suggested GRID should pause all developments in UK until rates of return improved. ‘Until there is better visibility on how GB assets achieve a sustainable revenue stream, we think requesting additional capital is fraught with risk,’ he said. ‘In our view, there is a better way.’

Christopher Brown of JPMorgan Cazenove said the issue was effectively capped at £84m by the trust’s annual 10% limit for new share capital. He said the £80m target left a £55m funding gap that could be filled by the project taking on debt, which given the long-term contracted cash flows might be easier to do than in the UK...

[topvest] 18/5/2023 15:33

Good posts. I have just taken a small position in GRID now that this inevitable placing has been announced. I have held Gresham House plc from the original conversion from a property company. They have experienced some delays here of late, but they have made good progress overall. As for having SPVs that is quite usual - all such assets are held in SPVs across the industry. TRIG and others do exactly the same.

[speedsgh] 18/5/2023 12:45

FY22 results released on 6/4/23:
"Operational capacity is expected to reach 1GW in 2023 and c.1.5GW in 2024"

In today's placing announcement:
"GRID currently owns 590MW of operational projects and had EBITDA of GBP48.8m in 2022. In addition, GRID has 437MW of fully funded projects under construction in Great Britain targeting commissioning by the end of 2023, which will take operational capacity to over 1GW (1027MW; up c.80% year-on-year... GRID has identified a further 390MW of pipeline expected to commission in 2024 which it is now seeking to prioritise."

590+437+390=1417GW

So expected operational capacity in 2024 has reduced from c.1.5GW to c.1.4GW?

[marktime1231] 18/5/2023 11:53

£80M for future development at 155p, including a first venture in California. And how much to cover extra costs associated with delivery problems? More investment in early stage developments, not going back to safe but expensive acquisition of operational connected assets, so further exposure to execution risk. Hang on though, can we hear something reassuring about progress with commissioning of fully-funded but delayed 2022 and 2023 projects first, please and thank you. Are you going to hit 1.027GW in 2023 (revised down from 1.337GW at last fund raising) noting the operational portfolio is still stuck at 590MW?

Previous issues have been snapped up, it will be interesting to observe the institutional appetite and any retail demand.

[nickrl] 13/5/2023 12:38

Battery market is saturated in the short term despite commissioning delays and will only get worse over next 18mths but then there will be next wave of wind generation on the system so ESO will need more frequency response so pricing may come back. Also looking at bessanalytics website its the 2hr duration batteries that are consistently in the top 10 for revenue and GRID don't have any of those yet. Delays are a function of the dash for batteries worldwide and the DNO's are swamped with connections needed at 11kv and above running well above normal trends.

Ultimately i don't like GRID as teh truth is hidden in dozens of SPV's who publish results at least a year out of date and majority of them are below threshold for proper accounts so you can see very little of the truth. This is atypical financial engineering which may suit some but not me.

[mammyoko] 12/5/2023 08:31

Any reason for this to trade on a premium now they have admitted

The market backdrop for energy storage in GB has reached a watershed moment. As long-expected, frequency response services have now commoditised, and prices have reached low levels.

Now they say they are going to focus on trading - hence much more volatility in earnings

GRID will focus more meaningfully on trading as well as earning a lower proportion of revenues from Frequency Response and continuing to earn contracted Capacity Market revenues.

Plus, they continue to miss promised targets for commissioning

High energy prices have pushed down demand. GRID are assuming that demand will rebound now that energy prices have dropped. But has some demand been permanently taken out?

High gas prices in 2022 have led to much higher electricity prices for consumers driving electricity demand down and it is this, in our view, that has driven lower volatility in electricity prices in recent months.

I did hold and sold out this morning. I still think that GRID will do well over the medium term but I see it trading below NAV in the short term until it is clear whether they can make up for lower revenue from frequency response by increasing revenue from trading and whether volatility returns. I would also like to see some improvement to delays in commissioning.

[speedsgh] 05/5/2023 11:04

Dividend Declaration -

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund PLC (LSE: GRID) is pleased to announce a dividend of 1.8375p per Ordinary Share for the period from 1 January 2023 to 31 March 2023. The dividend will be paid on 8 June 2023 to Shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 19 May 2023. The ex-dividend date is 18 May 2023.

Any such dividend payment to Shareholders may take the form of either dividend income or "qualifying interest income" which may be designated as an interest distribution for UK tax purposes and therefore subject to the interest streaming regime applicable to investment trusts. Of this dividend declared of 1.8375 pence per Ordinary Share, 0.3375 pence is declared as dividend income with 1.5 pence treated as qualifying interest income.

[willywonka12] 03/5/2023 10:49

Always delay in news

[cruelladeville] 02/5/2023 16:24

Dividend declaration day tomorrow and ex dividend on 11th May. Looking forward to more news from GRID.

[cruelladeville] 11/4/2023 19:19

Nice share price appreciation here today. Can't see any news from GRID?

[cruelladeville] 07/4/2023 07:58

Positive commentary from Tempus in The Times today. Continuing intention of long term hold of GRID here.

[nickrl] 06/4/2023 23:15

Its odd that HEIT are retreating whilst GRID are advancing

[jonwig] 06/4/2023 17:13

marktime - thank you or your detailed response.

For myself, I had little time to go beyond the headlines, and was perfectly satisfied with what I read. I was expecting mentions of delays (the word occurs 26 times) and wasn't fazed.

As far as grid connection goes, delays are well-known, and maybe there's consolation that other countries experience same and more. (China!)

There will be some analysis before long (Edison, I think, and some others - not, I admit, independent.

[marktime1231] 06/4/2023 13:07

Redefining "excellent"?

More like terrible. Still only 590MW in operation, versus the 1197MW planned according to the report last year. Less than half a job. Rapidly drawing down debt eg at £50-60M per quarter, available funds must be getting low. More debt or dilution anyone? (Compare this to UKW for example, acquiring new assets from surplus cash flow while indexing the dividend with inflation). How can you / they be "pleased"? The named two projects, already miles late, are suffering further commissioning delays, something they couldn't see or didn't want to report in an update just four weeks ago. What does "close" mean, last time they said "imminent" it was several months not weeks away. So how can you believe anything they say about future expectations? Surely a significant chance GRID won't deliver the revised plan of 1GW operational by year end.

GRID has missed out on the bubble in energy prices, a massive opportunity squandered. And now prices are subsiding. Being intensively focused on developing early stage projects to drive up NAV has backfired versus paying the price to acquire operational capacity and maximise the income opportunity. GRID are not being frank, they are not delivering. The first dividend increase for three years, and even that is -5% on inflation! I suspect there is not much net NAV improvement to look forward to either, less than the premium in the share price anyway.

As I have said before it doesn't matter why projects are late, nor who is to blame, the damage to income has been done and is being done. The share price does not reflect the execution risk, the premium is unfounded.

[nickrl] 06/4/2023 10:14

According to www.bessanalytics.com/ GRID operated sites have been falling down the list for some weeks now and its long duration assets that are making the running. My take on this is that GRID are banking on volatility to drive trading opportunities but the ESOs mandate is to avoid that and market dynamics look far more stable in 2023. So i reckon we will see setbacks during the year and with no big wind farms due online till 2024/25 now it might be a waiting game.