ADVFN Logo ADVFN

We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now

Toplists

It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Hot Features

Registration Strip Icon for discussion Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.

GRID Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc

69.30
-0.70 (-1.00%)
Last Updated: 13:51:20
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc LSE:GRID London Ordinary Share GB00BFX3K770 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.70 -1.00% 69.30 68.90 70.50 70.00 69.30 70.00 395,090 13:51:20
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty -100.1M -110.11M -0.1929 -3.60 399.49M
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc is listed in the Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GRID. The last closing price for Gresham House Energy Sto... was 70p. Over the last year, Gresham House Energy Sto... shares have traded in a share price range of 36.90p to 134.80p.

Gresham House Energy Sto... currently has 570,701,073 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gresham House Energy Sto... is £399.49 million. Gresham House Energy Sto... has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -3.60.

Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 526 to 547 of 1000 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
27/9/2023
20:39
Yes, happy to be on the outside looking in until things resolve.

Collapsing revenue stream, complaining that ESO are cutting them out, well maybe ESO doesn't need the way batteries are being offered so much, get with it GRID.

They say the dividend will not be covered until 2023 deployments are complete, latest estimate is sometime H1 2024 but don't bank on it. Not much chance of further dividend increases then.

They say happy with funding of committed programme without needing another issue, but we know the last raise fell short of what the US venture requires, so it will have to be expensive debt then. Already eating in to the available credit facility.

Restating the low risk wisdom of extending the duration of existing sites to 2hrs, solves the problem of grid connection delays at new developments. A bit late. While still pursuing early stage new developments including in new markets.

I'm sure I've missed other bad snippets, but that is depressing enough.

The devastating collapse here in the last six months, as problems with strategy and execution slowly reveal themselves, worth a bit of contrition if not heads rolling. I imagine the investor Q&A this morning had a bit of atmosphere to it. But the chairman applauds the track record of the manager, and there is a whole page in the Interim Report about how the manager is adding value and enhancing revenue.

Oh, and the management fee/admin was £4.85M for all that dreadful investor value destruction. A 37% increase!!!

Worse still to come.

marktime1231
27/9/2023
17:38
Happy to be watching GRID from the sidelines...

Half-year results to 30 June 2023 -

speedsgh
25/9/2023
17:20
Wow, closed down at 108p. Is this now so cheap it is worth getting back in?

A 25% discount to NAV (but which may be falling) and 6.7% yield on offer. Well some good renewable energy ITs are trading at a 15% discount so is 25% off a bad one about right? Similarly beleaguered rival GSF on a 29% discount is yielding 9%, so if GRID is possibly worth betting on again then GSF certainly is.

But I'm not warming to either, watching from the sidelines for good news, or the end to bad news, and for signs that they are behaving more like lower risk income managers and less like fee-driven higher risk asset developers.

marktime1231
09/9/2023
10:55
Hi Adam,

Our opinions of the economic situation are pretty close. I'm in agreement that there may or may not be one more rate rise in September and if does happen it's very likely to be the last one. I'm also in agreement that base rates will start to fall at some time. This is a bit hard to predict as I see it as difficult for the BOE to reduce rates whilst inflation is above 2-3% but I'd say sometime next year.

Let's call it June for the sake of discussion. There are two things though. I see the era of low term rates is now gone. That's a failed economic experiment. So, maybe they will drop to 4% and that fits with say 10 year gilts when are sitting at around 4.5%

If rates fall to 4% is that going to make any significant impact on the asset value based upon some DCF cash flow model. Well yes a little. But not that much. It helps. But in the other direction we have lower inflation in the DCF models but more importantly for me is QT.

By June next year that's another $900bn of QT done roughly in the US and IIRC correctly perhaps another £60b in the UK. That's a constant drag on asset prices.


Sure, I see the possiblitiy of some relief rally based on interest rates falling but I don't think it will be that great and could be from a lower low than where we are now.

Just my thoughts. As you say it takes two to make a market and that's the beauty of it.

cc2014
08/9/2023
18:56
CC2014

I take the opposite view. I think inflation will continue to come down sharply from here and be around 4% by year end. That will mean that we're probably at peak interest rates - max there would be 1 more rate rise in Sept and therefore that market expectations of peak rates at 5.7% needs to come down further. Falling rates will therefore support the price of this sort of thing, as well as small caps, commodities etc. I plan to be 100% invested before long.

Guess our different opinions is what makes a market!!!

Adam

adamb1978
08/9/2023
17:28
Not sure how much you can take from BESS analytics website especially trading income as thats not readily declared for weeks even for BM assets but stats for last 30 days are

HEIT 4 sites 129MW/258MWh average 6.93 £/MW/hr 61 £k/MW/yr

GRID 9 sites 355MW/398MWh average 4.39 £/MW/hr 38 £k/MW/yr

shows you the extent of not have 2hr batteries.

HEIT have one site in delay due to grid connection but two more sites coming on line a little earlier all helps boost cashflow although neither are anywhere near covering divi currently.

nickrl
08/9/2023
13:47
No problem. Yes, I would agree HEIT are a better buy at the moment. To be honest, I think both will get cheaper though and energy storage is having a big hangover from the glories of 2021 and 2022. I should have waited longer. They are both probably better placed medium-term than short-term so there is no rush.

I am still 34% cash in my portfolio and I am not buying anything now until my chart alerts get hit (i.e. 50dma>200mda) - have 178 alerts set! Its always tempting to bottom fish, but where is the bottom? I am not convinced we will hit bottom until the US cracks. I would be very surprised if the US gets through Q4 without a stock market crash. The US is still 50%+ overvalued and when this corrects we will surely feel it!

topvest
08/9/2023
13:30
My apologies Topvest. I've checked the RNS and the battery life is not being extended.
I'm not sure why I thought that, I probably read it somewhere but not on GRID.

I have been dithering about buying this morning but in the end I've decided to leave it. I'm kind of with you that 120p is a not unreasonable price but it does carry some risk and isn't super cheap which is what I would prefer.

I concur that HEIT seems better or at least they seem good at the construction side of it. And so they should be as that's what Harmony (the company not the IT) do.

cc2014
08/9/2023
13:09
Where does it mention the extended battery life please?
I still have a small holding, but I think they are probably heading back down to the IPO price or below. HEIT looks better and that's been bad as well.
For me NAV at year-end could by c10p lower on discount rate and c10p lower on revenue projections with nothing else getting commissioned until 2024. Probably looking at about 120-125p NAV. Not really a sell, but definitely not a buy. I definitely got this one wrong. At least I have made a lot out of Gresham House plc being taken over.
It could start to look better in 2024 or later this year if we get a very cold winter with supply interruptions. Whatever happens, they have blown their credibility and won't be able to raise any new cash.

topvest
08/9/2023
10:40
The share price slide suggests to me the market has lost all confidence in GRID and even though it's now hit 120p this morning the trades suggest no buyers are coming in. Not even PI's who are usually there to try to flip for a few percent regardless of the risk.

Yesterday's RNS as Topvest points out is littered with inconsistencies and it's pretty clear now that the most recent fundraises were just cash grabs (as can be said of some others like the Astrato boys at ROOF)

So, we've got execution problems, we've got lack of ownership of the execution problems, we've got a worrying LTV coming down the line and we've got blaming other agencies for their woes, but probabably more worrying that than it's now a market which is becoming saturated (and can only get worse given how much is coming on line)

But they are promising us 8% unlevered after management expenses and 15% levered on the same basis. I don't think they've actually read their own RNS or perhaps they presume to think that's true or that people who read their RNS' do believe them.

The RNS overall is not well crafted. It smacks of a fund manager who knows the game is up and can't cover all the issues off any longer as the facts and lack of delivery now outweigh the promises.

I note they have extended the battery life or the life of the projects to keep the NAV up a little. One wonders if in 10 years we discover this isn't so realistic.

cc2014
07/9/2023
19:31
From the Annual Report:
"The Manager has reviewed and reset the pipeline’s commissioning timeline more conservatively for 2023, which had a minor impact on the NAV per share as of 31
December 2022. This re-basing should result in less risk of further slippage while the Manager will work to deliver on these expectations."

Not so!

There was no trading update as such ahead of the fundraise. They must have known about these issues and there was no RNS raising the supplier failure.

End result will be that they have ZERO chance of raising more equity for quite some time.

topvest
07/9/2023
19:16
To be honest with you, its wholly deserved. They have been somewhat slow on revealing the bad news. Their commentary also doesn't stack-up.
They now have 250MWh for delivery in 2023 - 4 projects all of which are significantly delayed, but then say:
"At least two Independent Connection Providers (ICPs), licensed contractors who work on the connecting infrastructure between projects and networks, have gone into administration in H1 2023. This has created delays at projects exposed to these contractors and created tight conditions in this segment of the market. GRID was exposed to one of these ICPs at three projects but has moved swiftly to new contractors to minimise delays."
and refer to a maximum delay of 150MWh...but looks like 250MWh!
I am starting to conclude that nothing else will be commissioned until 2024.
They are very evasive on reporting bad news or anything negative.

Ben Guest - well comments on this BB about him are confirmed...

Ben Guest, Fund Manager of Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc & Managing Director of Gresham House New Energy, added:

"The Energy Storage market is going through a first phase of maturity as the small frequency response[6] market becomes saturated - something we have expected for years. SURE, DON'T THINK YOU FLAGGED!

"The exciting, much larger trading[7] opportunity is ahead of us and is the reason BESS are being built at scale. LATE MOVE TO 2 HOUR DURATION. OTHERS ALREADY DOING.

"The fundamental drivers for battery storage continue to be strong, with growth in BESS capacity continuing to lag the pace of renewables growth. At 2.7GW, more UK wind and solar was added during the first quarter of 2023 than the existing size of the entire battery energy storage sector. FAIR

"Delays at NG ESO in launching the necessary tools for the Control Room is impacting revenues today. However, we are confident that NG ESO will have taken the important steps to resolve this in the coming months. FAIR

"We therefore believe the Company is set up for a powerful recovery. The combination of MW and MWh operational capacity growth, careful structuring, an expected upturn following today's cyclical downturn created by last year's market gyrations and NG ESO modernising its systems is expected to lead to strong levels of cash flow and dividend cover". WELL THAT REALLY SHOWS YOU UP. RECOVERY FROM A CYCLICAL DOWNTURN ALREADY - YOU HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY FLAGGED THE DOWNTURN UNLESS I AM MISTAKEN. ITS LIKE NOT HAVING A PROFIT WARNING AND THEN SAY THAT REVENUES WILL BOUNCE STRONGLY FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL THAT WE DIDN'T MENTION TO YOU WHEN WE DID THE FUNDRAISE.

Not amused!

topvest
07/9/2023
18:13
Over reaction on the downside here today. The market remains very nervous about GRID.
cruelladeville
07/9/2023
17:08
It hardly helps that UK prices are at rock bottom and a fraction of last year. (From something North of £12 to under £3 pmwh)

GSF (Gore) I think is better placed, not only due to significant diversification, decent management but also they have £100m in the bank, more than enough to fund the near term expansion, and an undrawn £50m revolving credit line. As has been pointed out, currently the divi, like here, isn't fully covered but it will be once the spend brings in the income.

waterloo01
07/9/2023
16:51
Yes, all very disappointing. I think they have over extended themselves. They can't afford to do the US project. Better if they had focused on delivering their existing projects. Of course, the bad news is only released after the fundraising which creates a bit of a bad smell. Looks like every project has slipped - that is not good enough at all and they must have known about these delays well before now. Indeed, this BB seems to be more accurate!
topvest
07/9/2023
09:41
Compare with GSF which put out a good update yesterday. GSF seemed to have anticapted all this and diversified their revenues across lots of regions and different contract types. Would definitely choose GSF over this if thinking of investing in the sector.
riverman77
07/9/2023
09:19
hmm.

I've been kind of following GRID for a couple of years. The price has never been low enough for me to do some serious research but it's now in the area I'm kind of interested in.

I read the RNS today and I'm completely puzzled by this statement.
"The Company targets an unlevered Net Asset Value total return of 8% per annum and a levered Net Asset Value total return of 15% per annum, in each case calculated net of the Company's costs and expenses"

It doesn't sound right to me. If your unlevered return is about 10% less 2% expenses to give the 8%, then if you are borrowing at say SONIA + 3% of the rest (which comes to around 8%), then your new projects would need to have a return of something approaching 18% assuming a gross loan to value of 50%.

More reading required I think...


Otherwise I wasn't impressed. There's clearly something uncomfortable with a DCF cashflow approach to NAV which results in a 15.5pps adjustment to revenues in just a three month period.

cc2014
07/9/2023
08:47
NAV update today sounds like a kids litany of excuses of why they haven't done their homework and it will be alright next time. The problem here is GRID rode the wave of exuberance last year on both high pricing for power and frequency response services before ESO moved the latter to auction and drove the prices down. Then they told us arbitrage in the wholesale mkt was the way forward now, they say it hasn't been others say it is, now its upgrading existing fleet to longer duration but at what cost and when isn't clear but it is sound strategy.

Im not in here better value in HEIT currently imv which has dropped back more over the last 6M. GRID like HEIT isn't disclosing much in the way of operational performance, unlike UKW, which always makes me wary but perhaps the small mkt for BESS assets makes it more commercially sensitive currently.

nickrl
09/8/2023
12:48
Not just the effects of lower prices and market saturation dragging down the outlook here, the lobby group Electricity Storage Network representing BESS operators is accusing National Grid ESO of overlooking battery storage
marktime1231
01/8/2023
12:41
The slump to a wide discount because GRID has not been delivering, a little surprised we are still waiting for announcements which were supposed to be imminent ... two of the five delayed Statera projects were "close to commissioning" we were told in April. The placing prospectus in May had a weaker ambition in writing, the aggregate live target reduced and "by the end of 2023". But they guided we should expect progress in the next couple of months. Nada!

Even at this new price I still don't buy it. Heroes to zeros. Guest is a bluffer.

Searchlight might be wondering what they are buying in to here.

marktime1231
26/7/2023
08:52
Yes, I also hold HEIT and recently doubled my holding there at the current silly low share price.
cruelladeville
26/7/2023
08:50
Certainly, I'd have thought arbitrage on volatile prices would be ideal for GRID to make money. I saw wind generation swing around from supplying 45% of grid demand to
cruelladeville
Chat Pages: Latest  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  Older

Your Recent History

Delayed Upgrade Clock