Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Keras Resources Plc LSE:KRS London Ordinary Share GB00B649J414 ORD 0.01P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.005 4.0% 0.13 3,675,935 12:01:58
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.12 0.14 0.13 0.125 0.125
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining -0.47 -0.02 6
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
13:21:41 O 528,301 0.1325 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
24/9/202011:05KRS Finally Coming of Age1,310
11/6/202011:46Keras Resources (ex Ferrex) - mining gold and manganese in 20161,725
15/12/201701:25Keras Resources (LON:KRS) shallow resources that can be extracted easily and con617
27/9/201711:42ASX listing stinks!8
01/7/201614:41Ferrex KRS63

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Keras Resources Daily Update: Keras Resources Plc is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker KRS. The last closing price for Keras Resources was 0.13p.
Keras Resources Plc has a 4 week average price of 0.12p and a 12 week average price of 0.12p.
The 1 year high share price is 0.58p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0.07p.
There are currently 4,866,007,851 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 21,798,861 shares. The market capitalisation of Keras Resources Plc is £6,325,810.21.
tcrober1: Anything that would significantly affect the valuation/share price of the company would have to be RNS's straight away,so hopefully some behind the scenes work prior to an update.
edgein: Given a quick go on the calculator its 2,964,000 MTU at 38% contained metal (trail mining was about 41% concentrate) $10.250m gross revenue or about $7.5m to KRS with about $2.5m free cash flow in year 1. At full production its more like 11.4m MTU gross, with KRS share equating to around $30m in revenues at full production. With about $10m free cash flow if you use just a $1.20/MTU margin. I guess it must be down to the lack of ML currently on Nayega that makes them given an NPV much less on 76.5% of Nayega vs 51% of DC. Regards, Ed.
edgein: Z, Interesting comparison, I haven't checked those guys out before, mainly just Jupiter in South Africa. Giyani have 1.24Mt at a very high grade of around 27% and a cut off of around 8.9%, there is some over burden on their development. But their PEA suggests US$275m and an IRR of around 80% from a quick read through. Those are impressive numbers when you consider than KRS has x10 that tonnage at around half the grade but its pretty much at surface, no pre-strip. I guess its why many of us hold on so tightly here as Nayega simply isn't in this small cap. Also KRS are more advanced they're ready to go on the drop of a hat (ML). They could also add more tonnage from these two satellite deposits (also high grade and at surface). Interesting times ahead and a good find, with Utah cranking up too even more pressure on the share price. Regards, Ed,
rec0very stock: NPV is the sum of the discounted cash flow and if the market is valuing it properly it should be at a risked NPV. Cashflow starts off small because quantities are not large but are projected to grow - you need to think about is as a new high quality brand of fertiliser that is looking to gain market share in growing market, not like something traded on spot / futures markets. Operating costs are quite high until production grows to provide economies of scale - production grows to meet demand so if demand is not there production stays small, if demand booms production can grow faster to meet it. I flat profiled at the 5 year target, but there is no reason why it could not continue to grow for longer. With a 60 year LOM at the 5 year flat profile level, growing to double the projection would still give 30 years - I just ran the NPV to sum over 15 years. There are 3 items of CAPEX which coincide with the 3 tranches of debt. Further improvement to the road. Buying their own plant - both improve quantity and reduce cost and should be done fairly quickly - I would expect both to be done early in the New Year, though the area does get quite a bit of snow in winter. The last bit which is not until Q2 2021 is proving up more resource to JORC standard. This gives more confidence that quality of product will be maintained and provides credibility if they want to sell it / secure bank debt on it. Cash should start to flow back to KRS in the form of debt repayment towards the end of the year and continue for 3 to 4 years until it is all repaid then it flows as dividends. I hope that answers your question, I don't want to give any more detailed figures as they would be guesses founded on assumptions which are in turn based on guesses. I did see a figure of $5m EBIT in year 5 in my research, but I can't remember where I saw it - KRS share is 51% of that. Togo remains the jewel in the crown of the KRS portfolio, if we can get the permit to start mining - I remain convinced it is just a matter of time, but it has been a very long time already with many unfulfilled promises on the part of the Togo govt. Hopefully share price Angel will put out a note at some point which does give some better figures.
edgein: RS, Yes it looks like KRS has just moved from a 2.8bn issue to around 4.2bn issue to become an immediate fertilizer producer with stunning scale and LoM. I agree its sent a very clear signal to Togo, they ain't the only show in town anymore. Be interesting to see what this company making deal does to the share price tomorrow. Excellent EBITDA projections too. Regards, Ed.
rec0very stock: Marky, The definition of what a dmtu is is exactly what I said. The product that would be FOB Lome will be around 37/8% - the bulk sample assumed 35% but it turned out a bit better - these things vary as you dig up different parts. Therefore the calculation I have done based on a $1 per dmtu gross profit on sales of concentrate, given about $3 per dmtu costs, is correct at average Mn 37% ore prices FOB Port Elizabeth. The KRS share of the cash generated is as I say, the conversion to £ is based on current exchange rate. We don't know what the offtake deal will be, but if cash is going to be provided up front by the offtaker, the quid pro quo will most likely be a long term discount on the price the offtaker pays for product. I might be being a bit harsh on PLC costs, but they will increase from where they are now. There is upside on increased production both in terms of volume but also cost reduction, but it will be about £4-5m of free cashflow generation pa once in full production. Depending on whether there is another project to fund, a significant proportion of that could be paid out in dividends. There will be further upside on phase 2, but there are significant capital costs as well. We don't know how the economics of phase 2 will pan out, because the scoping study has not been made public, though I expect it is complete and is being saved for a time when it would be relevant ie once the permit is issued and mining has started. SP Angel did NPV calcs which basically come to a similar conclusion on current production capacity at project level ie not including PLC costs and also before govt 10% was factored in. The latest investor presentation from Jan 20 is your best source of info: Https:// I am extremely bullish, having been a very long term shareholder, who gets along to AGMs (I was all set to go to the one in March before Covid hit) etc to talk to the board. If KRS needs cash, then I have offered to provide some rather than being diluted by yet another bucket shop placing (already seen too many of those over the years). Let me know by PM if you would be prepared to do the same. My bullishness is based on the facts, the right sort of assumptions and the risks, which still exist.
bozzy_s: Looks like CAI consolidated shares started trading today. Almost all trades at $0.22 Aus So taking into account the consolidation... 2.2c for every 3.452 KRS shares 0.637c for every 1 KRS share £1 = $1.92 0.33p of CAI shares per KRS share KRS bid price 0.185p for any meaningful quantity, 0.515p total value today for anyone holding both. Given the shambles surrounding the CAI distribution, it's really not been worth the aggro. I'm assuming KRS were let down by their advisers, and in turn let us down with the misleading qualifying date for CAI entitlement. Not surprised to see share price Angel are the NOMAD. Clueless. They are also house broker for AAZ, running about 3 years behind the curve. Their last target price was 97p. AAZ has been above £1, and up to £1.70, but the paid-for house broker share price Angel still haven't updated their price target! Keras need to improve next year. Ditching share price Angel would be a good start.
rec0very stock: 4STA, You got the decimal point in the wrong place / have put p when it should have been £ in your price per share, but you are right on your calculation for 500k. At current bid and current exchange rate the value of CAI per KRS share is 0.4p. CAI is fairly thinly traded on ASX which is why the drilling news does not move the shareprice. I doubt anyone planning to sell CAI in the short term would actually be able to get that much and that is why those who need to sell are selling ahead of the demerger despite the Togo news. Hopefully we will get full figures on the Togo Mn tomorrow. The recent presentation says OPEX of $3-3.1 / dmtu. I note the OPEX for the bulk sample worked out at $2.9 / dmtu and that included a 15% contingency. The licence may include additional royalty payments and a commitment to spend on a community project, which might account for the difference, or it may just be Russell is being ultra cautious. The current Mn ore price is not great and makes the project only marginally profitable at the moment. I think KRS will get going on the mining at 6.5kT/m but may well hold off on the CAPEX to raise to 13kT/m until the Mn price improves. There will be some upfront costs to getting mining restarted (working capital rather than CAPEX), which may come from the offtaker or a loan. With the ratio set at 3.44229 KRS / CAI for the demerger, KRS cannot issue any more shares at the moment. It is frustrating, as had the licence been awarded shortly after completion of the bulk sample when Mn ore price was much higher, KRS would be sat on a nice little pile of cash right now. As it is, I think we are going to have to be patient - no change there! Is anyone going to the investors presentation on 6th? I can't make it. I assume the idea is to try to get more committed long term investors in who are interested in both projects, so those who have a short term need to sell can get out so post demerger CAI and KRS don't take a massive hit
bozzy_s: Not sure whether Shareprophets went into details. Here's the current value of CAI shares per KRS share: 723,750,000 * 0.026 Au$ = 18,817,500 Au$ total Today's exchange rate 1 GBP : 1.835 Au$ So CAI shares worth 10,254,768 GBP Divided by 2,491,358,439 = 0.41p per KRS share Before August's dilution, would've been 2,289,133,439 shares = 0.45p per KRS share But of course the remainder of KRS, valued at nil by the market, has increased net cash by £0.8m via that debt conversion and placing. I'm still a bit disappointed by the placing/conversion price (0.4p per KRS share when the upcoming CAI shares alone were worth 0.5p, and KRS was itself 0.485p). However by distributing all the CAI shares, the directors have been very good to us shareholders. Will be interesting to see how CAI performs when the new shares are issued. Hopefully they'll announce some nice exploration updates around the same time.
rec0very stock: I have not heard back from DR yet, he is obviously busy, as he normally responds very promptly. I do not have time to do this next week, so here goes now and I will explain where the answer from DR comes in. Risk / Reward - the key to successful investing in anything. First start with the reward, if it is not big enough, there is no point continuing. The reward needs to be assessed as a base case that has at least 90% probability of being achieved or better. It also needs to be in a reasonably well defined timescale, great if that is a firm date, but more often than not it is an event you expect to happen. With KRS there is a clear date to go against and that is when CAI shares come out of escrow. The commitment has been made to distribute them. KRS may need to sell some in the market to provide funds for KRS and we get our fair share of the rest. That will happen in Jun 19. What I expect to happen prior to Jun 19, as a base case, is: the resource to be upgraded to at least 1 MOz giving a 7 year plus mine life. The PFS should be produced by Jun 19 and KRS should have converted all CAI performance shares to ordinary shares. On this basis the ratio of KRS held to CAI received will be impacted by dilution of KRS (the number of CAI shares owned by KRS is fixed (more on that later), the number of KRS shares in issue at Jun 19 is not fixed. There are just over 200m warrants outstanding. All massively underwater at the moment at roughly 0.5p = £1m to KRS when exercised. Some time before Jun 19 the market will wake up and it should be assumed that all warrants will be exercised when profitable to do so / before distribution of CAI shares. The current ratio is about 3 KRS to 1 CAI. The price of CAI shares at Jun 19 is undetermined. If the resource and PFS is as expected in the base case, then they should be well ahead of where they are now, but further funding will be required to move from upgraded resource towards the end on 2018 to PFS by Jun 19 hence more CAI shares will be issued. It is possible, but fairly unlikely that KRS could take part in this placing. For the sake of the base case, I am assuming 3 to 1 and CAI share price of 5c (ie just above where it is now) as a more realistic price above 5c would counter balance a less favourable ratio. The reward per KRS share is therefore 1.7c or 1p at current exchange rate (there is always exchange rate risk and price of gold risk which we can all assess for ourselves and I will not cover further in this assessment). In the base case I have assumed no Mn Licence and nothing on Co/Ni or any new projects. There is clearly potential large upside to this. Mn is currently at $6.8 dmtu FOB Port Elizabeth and we have been told KRS could produce, within about 9 months, at less than $2 dmtu FOB Lome. The upside from CAI price being significantly higher than 5c is obvious. KRS holders will have a choice in Jun 19, they can sell their KRS shares before distribution or they can take the distribution and sell CAI on ASX or they can hold CAI for further upside. If none of the other projects are moving, then I would suggest KRS does a solvent liquidation and ceases trading on AIM shortly after distribution, but that is very much TBD at the time. In the base case, I assume all reward comes from CAI and nothing from the remainder of KRS. Having established the base case reward - 1p, and cognisant of the upsides, it is time to look at the risks. We only need to look at the risks of base case not being achieved. These are: PFS not completed by Jun 19. Possible, but they would still have 1 year to complete before the performance shares lapse, so we are talking about a delay in the reward not a reduction. I would guess the distribution would be delayed until all performance shares have been converted to ordinary rather than do 2 distributions. PFS shows project is not economically viable. From what we know from drilling so far this is possible but highly unlikely. This is the risk to consider as more drill results are released. There is nothing that we can do other than take a loss on selling KRS before Jun 19 to mitigate our exposure. The impact of this risk materialising could be total loss of all reward, though some of the other potential upside outside the base case could replace the full reward and more. KRS Dilution. The warrants have already been mentioned. If they are all exercised in the right sort of timeframe, I do not see a need for dilution to keep the lights on at KRS, which is effectively in hibernation. Should the Mn licence be granted, funding will be required and there are a number of ways that can be achieved. I think it is fair to assume that any dilution at PLC level will be more than matched by the increased reward. The problem is whilst the market continues to ignore us, warrants won't be exercised as they are underwater and a long way from being time expired. When I had a quick look at the results, the cash position was as dire as expected. It has had a small top up placing since, but will not last until Jun 19. I read the full annual report in more detail on Fri. The first thing I noticed was it kept talking about company rather than group, indeed group figures are not even there. The group figures would be consolidated, so money owed by subsidiaries balance out with money due into the company. The company figures have a current asset of about £1.4m against loans. These loans are zero interest, supposedly payable on demand by subsidiaries. One of those subsidiaries owes £1.2m. It has been disposed of for nil consideration, presumably to other shareholders of the subsidiary, but it is owed money from those shareholders in excess of the £1.2m owed to KRS. So the question I asked DR, which he has not responded to but I will let you know what he comes back with, is: If KRS demanded repayment, would the money actually arrive? If the answer is yes, then I see the KRS dilution risk as zero. Please come back on any of this in a constructive manner - this is a discussion board. I am going to the AGM and will try to get as much detail as possible to further inform this. But for now this is how I see the risk / reward case. I have not fully decided whether I am going to take advantage of the market ignoring us and top up on my 19.5m shares, but I have liquidated a position in another stock so I could do so. Really I ought to keep all this to myself, but I value other opinions.
Keras Resources share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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