Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[probablynotphil] 15/7/2024 17:34

I also think there's some negative sentiment for renewables today now people think Trump is more likely to be president. I wonder how much that fed into the drop of GSF too.

[scruff1] 15/7/2024 17:32

Its a bit like your boss saying 'I may be giving you a pay cut at the end of the month. You should be happy cos at least I can afford a pay cut'. Personally I think I should be looking for a new job !!!

[alan pt] 15/7/2024 17:18

Interesting share price reaction today, dropping back to recent levels, bouncing around a bit, but nothing too drastic

Suggests that perhaps opinion is divided, as with the posters here, between those who welcome a more cautious covered dividend policy and those who feel that the cut removes any incentive to hold

Personally I'm a little disappointed with 1p, I think 1.25p or thereabouts would have made it more consistent with other renewables trusts. But I can understand the logic of a bigger cut now, to ensure cover in the near term

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 17:02

Renewables seem to have picked up with the new Labour government, e.g. NESF, so maybe GSF will pick up too going forwards especially if they can deliver on growth as planned and also if we see progressively lower interest rates.

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 16:59

An interesting transcript, thanks for that tip fordin I wasn't aware of that AI feature. AI not good enough to allow cut and paste from the transcript but perhaps that's deliberate.

[waterloo01] 15/7/2024 16:44

I think the wonky white background makes them look more haggard than they are. Decent presentation. Double KWH in next 6 months, so as capex comes down once built, cash flow should increase significantly. Pretty conservative overall.

[fordtin] 15/7/2024 16:25

For those who missed it, the webinar is now available on you tube.



If you scroll down to the number of views and click on '....more' then scroll down again and click on 'show transcript',
you'll get an A I generated transcript. It's not perfect, but better than nothing.

[nickelmer] 15/7/2024 16:14

I thought they did look rather haggard and worn out in the presentation, also, I submitted 2 questions, one on there thoughts on the dreadful share price performance and the other on their revenue guidance once all sites are energised, they did not answer either question, just others they felt safer answering clearly, not impressed

[rogerrail] 15/7/2024 14:41

I guess next year's final dividend (potentialy the final dividend is £19.6m of the £33.6m total dividend) depends very much on the timing of the Big Rock energisation. If it goes as planned , 3 months operation alone equates to £10m in revenue.

[rogerrail] 15/7/2024 14:10

Current revenue run rate is £56m/yr based on last years average £/MW rate. By the end of current FY, run rate should well exceed £100m/Yr.

[fordtin] 15/7/2024 13:18

I know how you feel scruff1. I was debating whether to sell now, but renewables in general seem to be trending upward, so I think I'll wait & see if the tide can provide a better exit price.
Whatever happens, I don't foresee being a shareholder leading up to next year's Q4 declaration.

[panshanger1] 15/7/2024 13:14

Tempted to cut my losses on this too.As ever how much is in the price and how will this behave when interest rates start falling Weak hold for me atm

[scruff1] 15/7/2024 13:07

The more I think about it the more I think the company feels its not going to be able to meet its dividend. Its all based on ifs buts and maybes. Its not a situation I like to trust my cash with. I cant decide whether to follow CC2014 - and Im sorely tempted because I increasingly distrust this company or whether to wait til year end and see how Texas goes but I am pretty certain it wont be on time. Its a mess.

[cc2014] 15/7/2024 11:57

I closed out my position early on this morning.

The dividend profiling was a red flag for me, as is the falling price of Lithium

[panshanger1] 15/7/2024 11:41

If the target 24/25 is 7 pence that implies a final dividend of 4 pence Unlikely imho

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 11:41

Yes I understand the disappointment for longer term holders but if GSF can deliver on today's outlook then a sustainable rebased dividend should underpin the shares from this level. With the yield before today at 11.5% I think the market had priced in what's happened today, although the growth outlook and investment tax credit (ITC) of $60-$80m offer some encouragement from here.

[fordtin] 15/7/2024 10:58

It's not just 0.5p per annum. At current interest rates, knocking a penny off each of the first three quarters has a significant compound effect. They've also left considerable doubt about the Q4 dividend.




Dividend




 
per share


For the 3 month period ended 31 December 2021
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 March 2022
1 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 June 2022
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 September 2022
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 December 2022
2 Pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 March 2023
1.5 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 June 2023
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 September 2023
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 June 2022
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 September 2022
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 December 2022
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 March 2023
1.5 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 June 2023
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 September 2023
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 December 2023
2 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 March 2024
1.5 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 June 2024
1 pence


For the 3 month period ended 30 September 2024
1 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 December 2024
1 pence


For the 3 month period ended 31 March 2025
?

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 10:36

7/65 *100 = 10.8% yield so not much change to the yield. I can take the 0.5p reduction from 7.5p so long as they deliver as in the outlook above.

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 10:34

Outlook

· Of the 332 MW of assets in construction due to become energised over the next seven months, 275 MW / 475 MWh is eligible to benefit from an investment tax credit (ITC) of between 30-40% of qualifying capital expenditure through the Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed in late 2022.

· The Investment Manager expects the Company to benefit from a cash inflow in the range of $60 million to $80 million.

· This includes the 200 MW Big Rock asset, which, when completed, will play a material role in supporting the CAISO grid (California)-the Company's fifth market to date-to integrate rising levels of renewable generation.

Updated Dividend Policy:

The Company will target a dividend for the financial year ending 31 March 2025 of 7.0 pence per ordinary share, which is consistent with investors' expectations based on the current NAV. This will be subject to cash generation from the underlying portfolio, reflecting prevailing market conditions and performance, financial position and outlook, and the fiscal environment in which the Company operates. From the 2024/25 financial year, the profile and quantum of dividend distributions will be more closely aligned with operational and other cashflows.

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2024 10:31

Quarterly div due to be paid today (1.5p).

[fordtin] 15/7/2024 10:11

I hope you're right about the conservative base line, but all I can see at the moment is a dirty great big red flag

[886370] 15/7/2024 10:08

Hi
I’m thinking when the projects in the USA and Ireland start to produce revenue this surely will dramatically increase our cash reserve.
We now have the revenue now from Ferrymuir
When USA comes online that will nearly double our existing capacity. Hopefully without any further dilution.
I’m hoping that we are coming though a pinch point in terms of revenue and thus will now increase.
I think the 1p per quarter is a conservative base line

[scruff1] 15/7/2024 09:45

Im in agreement with you fordtin. Uncertainty is not welcome in any market and this is around 60% uncertain until the Board make up its mind and let us all know at the last minute. As of now we have to hope its at least 4p. Doesnt get my week off to a good start. Maybe find out more later