Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[scruff1] 17/7/2024 09:07

Yes I read it the other day and that final couple of paras is what worries most of us I guess. Its a very nebulous - very much in the form of GSF management

[morton2011] 16/7/2024 17:44

Thought results well presented this year.Been in from the start and added most years.Nav starts as cash.Deploy the cash in building relatively simple engineering but capex hungry and planning / regulatory risk plants. All subject to interest rate risk for debt we asked as shareholders GSF to take on.Running the assets once built is more complex than a solar farm or biomass plant as the revenue more volatile and subject to different forces (weather/market etc). Needs more mgmt than a typical investment trust which means more risk but chance for greater return. That will cost more in fees.Nav changes covered in presentation as cash becomes an asset. Does rely on mgmt assumptions so am a bit wary on NAV.The US assets key to next 18 months for the dividends. If plant built to time / on budget they can choose to take all or some of the $60 - $80 million from the IRS. Accounting for that should create a quick 'profit' and lots of dividend cover. Whether that happens within 9-12 months less clear so prudent to say dividends may be held back /delayed. I see very little risk from lower battery prices. New plants still need all the sites, connections to the grid and planning etc etc. A lot easier to upgrade established sites than build new

[fordtin] 16/7/2024 12:46

The problem with relying on capital gains to pay the bills is the scarcity of capital gains in a bear market.
Selling a ‘growth’ stock for a capital loss every time a gas bill is due can lead to rapidly diminishing capital.

At least dividend stocks 'should' provide a regular income to pay bills and have a chance of capital recovery when the market turns positive (provided they don't behave like GSF!)
Once a ‘growth‘ stock is sold at a loss and the proceeds spent on bills, there’s no chance of recovering those losses. In addition, future income potential will have been reduced.

[yump] 16/7/2024 12:45

Reliable growth stocks are difficult to find. We can all quote a good one of course. Getting a portfolio to grow is not easy.

If you have a capital sum that you don’t want to risk and you want income from it, then these stocks are part of the strategy.

It would have been so much better if we could have predicted Ukraine and interest rate rises. No crystal ball here.

I think its useful to think how everyone would have been talking about these stocks and their share prices without that.

[scruff1] 16/7/2024 12:20

Interest rates/inflation imo. Not wanting to exit stocks but wanting to keep momentum whilst inflation is raging. At least thats my motivation. There has never been an instance (as far as I can remember) when a cut in dividend hasnt sent investors packing looking for another home for their cash.

I prefer capital gains but divis are more dependable. As for Big Rock being on time I would give less than zero chance. I wonder how much more gross a time penalty clause would have cost if one was available

[cc2014] 16/7/2024 12:06

I think the difficulty for the Board is being sure Big Rock will be delivered on time.

Ferrymuir was months late (perhaps even a year)
Enderby has gone out another 3 months from even the last update a couple of months ago
Dogfish is now 2 months delayed.

If I were a betting man, I'd say the chances of Big Rock being delivered on time is low.

But there's a question. Why are there so many income hunters. It makes no sense to me. I don't care if I make money through capital gains or income, indeed capital gains is actually better as the marginal rate is lower.

The trouble with being an income hunter is when the income disappears. 7.5p cut to 7p, GRID being cut to zero, HEIT in no better place. BRBY yesterday cut to zero.
There is quite a regular pattern of dividends being cut.

[scruff1] 16/7/2024 11:54

At a time when there are a lot of income hunters and when Big Rock is close to being energised (allegedly) it may have been more prudent to delay yesterdays dividend change announcement. It all adds to making the 4p final seem a tad less than a banker

[rogerrail] 16/7/2024 11:33

Big Rock is a game changer and hopefully not that far off, worth hanging on until then.

[cc2014] 16/7/2024 10:26

I can't disagree with your post Stemis, but I think it's more than that.

At some point these IT's have to deliver. Many of them have been talking a good game for a while but eventually they have to deliver and that's lacking with GSF.

As others have pointed out, every project gets delayed and some by a long time and whilst that's been happening, the revenue per Mw/hr has been falling.

Eventually of course all the projects will be delivered so we are left with a time vs opportunity cost equation to work out.

[fordtin] 16/7/2024 10:15

Has anyone told their children/grandchildren that GSF have decided it's prudent for Christmas to be postponed until next July and might still be cancelled at the last minute if GSF don't receive a tax credit?

[yump] 16/7/2024 09:53

Slightly o/t but one of the best descriptions of grid connection issues that I’ve seen:

[scruff1] 16/7/2024 09:41

Got a lot in common/agreement with the last two posts. Trying to keep the faith with GSF at the moment. With Milliband closing down the N Sea and covering every inch of countryside in solar panels and windmills and our climate being the most unpredictable on the planet there is a pretty good chance that storage is going to become an important player and surely to goodness these additional assets that have and are due to come on line have to give us a boost at some point - dont they ???. And I suppose apart from their hopeless lack of communication/clarity the management havent done much wrong

[stemis] 16/7/2024 09:21

I hold quite a few high yielders to pay for my living expenses; REITS, Prefs and various others. Was attracted to this sector by the high yields and the future prospects. But what I found was dubious NAVs, uncovered yields, high costs and opaque accounting. I'm not saying GSF is the worst by any means but it's certainly in the mix...

[yump] 16/7/2024 09:02

Scruff
I’ve got a fair few high yielders, as moving to income not growth. GSF is the least transparent, so not exactly happy with it. Even if interest rates stay where they are, I don’t mind yields only being a couple of percent higher, as long as the funds are reporting clearly.

I don’t think anyone was expecting such a deterioration in so many REIT share prices. Maybe its an opportunity for capital growth at these levels, maybe its exposed the worst of them. A proper prospect of covered dividends at some point soon would make a huge difference.

I get some reassurance (not here!) from the fact that its a sector issue, maybe multi-sector, as Some secure high yielding stocks in insurance, banking etc. haven’t exactly been gobbled up by investors.

[cc2014] 16/7/2024 08:19

‘Net asset value is not a cash number, it contains assumptions about future performance and the like, and so what the board has appropriately done here is tie it to revenue and cash because that’s what you pay dividends out of,’ fund manager Alex O’Cinneide (pictured) told Citywire, adding that this would increase cover for the payouts.


rofl. Only the Irish could point out that cutting the dividend increases cover.


‘In a market where our competitors have had challenges – obviously they can’t pay their dividends – we see a strong level of confidence coming from the board around what is a very high level of revenue,’ O’Cinneide said, pointing out the portfolio generated an average of £15.1 per megawatt per hour over the period.


rofl. The Board have such a high confidence the dividend is 1,1,1,4 Yeah. That's why it's contingent.

[scruff1] 16/7/2024 08:16

Looks like the market is looking at the trades !!

[fordtin] 16/7/2024 08:03

Email received this morning;

Your Vote Counts!
GORE STREET
2024 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
Vote by 11-SEP-2024 (IG's closing date, other brokers may vary)


Anyone voting for a boardroom reshuffle?

[cocopah] 15/7/2024 19:30

#Nickelmer totally agree, they avoided answering any relevant questions. They stuck to easy answers about questions that didn’t really mean a lot. They certainly avoided my questions (along the same lines as yours) and including how much money the CEO and others were pocketing from their positions in Gore Street Capital. It is pretty obvious they have no interest in treating shareholders as owners.

[george stobart] 15/7/2024 18:06

I just a received a notification from Bloomberg that SSE PLC is preparing a bid for GSF at a +63.7% premium to last price.

Please keep it secret as they asked me to keep it confidential

[scruff1] 15/7/2024 17:51

The trouble with that yump is that also applies to lots of other stocks - especially REITs and many with similarly attractive yields if thats your bag. The other thing is that if a Labour govt gets into full swing (and milliband is making a good start)that fall in interest rates which people are betting the farm on may not be anywhere like the cuts they are expecting. I think (not sure) that Bailey has already said something like 'people should not expect a return to low interest rates'. Trumps backing for oil also a possible fly in the ointment - as well as all the battery doubts. Its certainly not clear still waters

[scruff1] 15/7/2024 17:42

More like people are cheesed off that they have sat through years of a constantly falling share price despite the coming on line of more assets and the promise of even more. The only thing that has kept my upper lip from quivering is the divi which they promised us was affordable. Now despite seemingly decent results we cant even be sure its gonna be more than 3p !!!! Its not hard to understand why investors are doing a runner

[yump] 15/7/2024 17:42

IF they do pay 7p and interest rates drop, the decrease in dividend will be pretty irrelevant.