Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 18/7/2017 11:52

While profits are to some degree factual (or quasi factual) the p/e ratio is of course subjective. Many factors will determine this, and given the relatively thin market of GDP it will be a very small base of investors who actually determine the p/e and share price

GDP said a while ago it had a list of capex projects with a pe<1. They are gradually working through these, and while they were originally capital constrained this is no longer the case.

The real question for me is what are they going to do with their cash flow once this work is done, possibly in a bout a year's time.

The cash will be accumulating at £5-6m pa.

[discodave4] 18/7/2017 11:50

Morning Sea and S7, hope all is well.Just posting up facts, a couple of regular rampers appear not to like facts or the relevance of 11/7/16.........even though I posted up 11/7/17! pmsl.............sign of paranoia me thinks.Wig - goes without saying your last comment includes yourself, excellent reasearch, congrats.DD

[sea7] 18/7/2017 11:29

shareholder, thks

kenya was ranked 139 out of 168 countries, meaning it was ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in 2015.

I haven't seen a more recent report, however, it is fair to say that it won't have moved up the list very far, if at all.

Whilst I do not expect Goldplat to engage in any impropriety, wheels get greased everywhere and kenya is certainly no exception.

[wigwammer] 18/7/2017 11:26

Well, if Barclays are doing it then obviously every company in the U.K. are doing it too.A lot of intelligence on display here.

[shareholder7] 18/7/2017 11:14

Very good post Sea and you are right, GDP will always have a lower PE to the norm due to the risk of doing business in Africa.I had sort of ignored the fact of having to do bribes in Africa to get stuff done and have been looking into this ever since I rerun the Brian video.The way most companies do this is to pay consultancy fees to a third party company who then distribute the cash. The sort of thing Barclays are now being investigated for.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Kenya

[wigwammer] 18/7/2017 11:06

DiscoDave4 - 18 Jul 2017 - 10:00 - 2900 of 2901 - 011/7/17 Bid 6.2518/7/17 Bid 6.25Please get a life.

[sea7] 18/7/2017 10:57

21/7/15 bid 1.50p
18/4/17 bid 8.00p
18/7/17 bid 6.25p

We can see that the 433% increase in the share price over the 21 months between the low and the recent high, is a reflection of the hard work done by the company to "right the ship"

As they have moved out of the recovery phase and into a growth phase, the pull back
in the share price is reflecting the weaker gold price environment, not any fundamental issues at the business.

The momentum behind the share price has stalled and is not likely to pick up again until we see some numbers come through on all the work done, that was not captured at the interim stage.

Kb alluded to a share price of 20p, well in my view with a mcap of £32m and the fact that the company has, historically always traded around an average p/e ratio of 5 or 6, we will need to see net profits after tax and less minorities of £5m pa, to get anywhere near that price.

I think that the y/e accounts will have us at the £2m-£2.5m level of NPAT, this should justify the current share price.

They will need to demonstrate that net profitability from this month onwards will continue on an upward trajectory, towards £4-£5m for the coming year, to see the share price get anywhere near 20p, which would reflect a p/e of 6 on expected forward earnings.

Goldplat's headwinds and legacy issues, will put a dampner on things slightly, so
for the time being, the expected level of earnings gives us the right share price currently, from a stock market trading level perspective. The market will move up accordingly if it thinks that an enhanced level of profitability is achievable after the y/e accounts are published.

At the current share price, the market, on a p/e of 5, is expecting y/e accounts to show net profitability of around £2m. This, I think is about right, so I am not expecting any increases in the share price in the short term.

In the mid term, if they can get towards £1.5m of NPAT, less minorities at the interims, then the share price could be around 11p by march of next year.

Any banana skins and then expect sub 10p share price for longer. The market will be cautious of going to far above 10p as Gerard indicated a thought on raising cash at that level, so there will be resistance at 10p.

[discodave4] 18/7/2017 10:00

11/7/17 Bid 6.2518/7/17 Bid 6.25

[kimboy2] 18/7/2017 09:34

Indeed once;
1.Stage 3 at Kili
2.The elution column at Ghana
3.The next elution column in South Africa
4.The stock dam in production

are completed I think we will be well over 20p.

A price of 20p is only a market cap of a bit over £30m. The four items will likely mostly be completed in a year's time.

[1rodson] 17/7/2017 22:00

I seem to recall kimboy calling for 10p some years ago!

[kimboy2] 17/7/2017 13:45

On the options it would seem Gerard is likely to earn considerably more from them than he will from his salary.

Perhaps that is how it should be.

[kimboy2] 17/7/2017 12:34

Well it is up to 5 years before they even have to buy the options, let alone sell them.

I think it will be many years before they will want to give up their shares, and GDP will be a much bigger company and no doubt much more liquid.

[russman] 17/7/2017 11:32

Take gdp to the brink.Then award 11m options at a bombed out 3.125p.Lets see if they can cash them in.

[kimboy2] 16/7/2017 20:41

10p is only a market cap of £17m. On a p/e of 5 that would require a profit of about £3.4m, or on a p/e of 8 would need a profit a bit over £2m.

I reckon the profit run rate atm is about £3.5m - 4m.

Of course we probably won't know that from the update in 10 days or from the prelims necessarily when they appear.

The best indicator will be Q1/18 in October, which hopefully would coincide with the completion of the Ghana elution column. That could provide a bit of a double whammy, as well as another increase in profit run rate of something over £1m.

We will of course see. Needless to say all the moaning from the Trolls will have no effect on the real numbers.

[camerongd53] 16/7/2017 19:43

If so I will be very happy - I would be starting to unload some of my holding at 10p.
I am hopeful that the shares will reach 10 but doubt if it will be within the next 10 months though

[kimboy2] 16/7/2017 19:12

I think it highly likely that the options will be in the money at some stage during the next 12 months

[camerongd53] 16/7/2017 18:46

Russman
I see you say that there are nearly 19m options outstanding
In reality only 12m of these should be considered relevant as they are probably going to be exercised. The remaining 6.5m are priced at 10p and 12p+ and are unlikely to be exercised unless there is a very significant price rise.
I will be very happy to eat my words if these 6.5m come into play!!!

[1rodson] 14/7/2017 14:22

It is easy to understand why they have opened up KILI given the experience with gold recovery!

[russman] 14/7/2017 12:31

19m share options outstanding.GDP is very illiquid.This institution could have done an offmarket deal.

[kimboy2] 14/7/2017 11:36

Yes Australia doesn't get mentioned in dispatches much. It would be interesting to know what these countries do with the material that GDP use. Presumably they have their own equivalents.

[sea7] 14/7/2017 11:27

I am not so sure about arbitrary limits on share prices. As long as mining continues in its current form then, goldplat has a business. There are opportunities, as you know, to expand the operation internationally, that have not been explored yet.

Someone even mentioned Australia once.

[kimboy2] 14/7/2017 11:06

It is easy to understand a reluctance to go into mining given the experience at Kili. However I am not sure that there is unlimited expansion available for the recovery operations.

One of the advantages that GDP have is that it should not be cyclical, especially if they build up sufficient stocks of material. This would allow them, if they have the cash and cash flow, to act opportunitically as mining opportunities develop.

I see an share price of 20-30p being the limit with recovery operations. However if they can pick up some nice mining opportunities along the way who knows what could happen.

[1rodson] 14/7/2017 10:50

But they seem not to be able to do anything constructive with the recovery business just go around in circles upsetting people the need to deal with.

Therefore let's open KILI again. Brian was a pretty useless Chair.

Not a share to get involved with as Miller rightly stated years ago!

[sea7] 14/7/2017 10:16

he does say "in my opinion, we're better off than having a mine, however, you will have to make your own mind up on that.

Which to me clearly shows that he feels that they should not being going along the mining route and should stick to the recovery business. He enthuses about the recovery business, however, is less enthusiastic about mining.

I agreed with him at the time and still do, as the recovery business keeps things going and there is scope for expansion elsewhere. They do not have to go into more mining and I have mentioned this to Gerard before.