Go-ahead Share Discussion Threads

[tintin82] 26/11/2015 14:11

Plenty of good news recently with the German rail and Singapore bus contract wins. Good momentum over the last few months also, hopefully new highs.

[bunnji] 14/10/2015 20:55

Go-Ahead reportedly well placed to win Singapore bus deal
Liberum says winning contract would be good start to expanding away from UK

UK bus operator Go-Ahead hopes to expand to Singapore.

According to analysts at Jefferies, local press reports suggest two of the original 10 bidders for a second package of bus routes being tendered have dropped out due to quality reasons, with Go-Ahead apparently putting in the lowest priced of the remaining bids. The winner is due to be announced by the end of the year. Jefferies said:

Go-Ahead has submitted the lowest priced bid at S$498m (around £232m) for the 5-year contract (with possible two-year extension). That appears to be 6.5% below the low end of the range of competing bids (S$533m-S$631m or around £248m-£294m). Other bidders include Keolis, a joint venture of RATP Dev and Transdev and local competition.

Earlier this year, Tower Transit (UK subsidiary of Australia’s Transit Systems Group) won the Bulim contract (the first package of bus routes tendered in Singapore). Its bid was a close third lowest on price, but was assessed to rank best on the combination of quality and price. Singapore’s Land Transport Authority said greater weight had been given to quality. Go-Ahead was the highest bidder in the Bulim process and we assume learnt from the experience. As a group that emphasises quality of product, we assume that with the lowest pitched bid for this second package, it must now be well placed in this contest.

The contract being tendered is to operate 25 bus routes from the Loyang bus depot. The government will retain ownership of the buses, infrastructure and fare revenue and the winning operator will be paid to operate the services to specified standards. The contract will begin in the second half of calendar 2016. Crudely assume up to a 10% London margin (Singapore’s bus model is similar), and the Go-Ahead bid may represent up to around £4.6m per annum EBIT opportunity. That compares to [our estimated] group pretax profit at £112m for Go-Ahead in 2016 - so a helpful business to win.

But Jefferies said the greater significance of winning the contract would be as a credible start to extending the group beyond its established UK bus and rail activities.

Go-Ahead is currently down 14p at £24.56.

[bunnji] 27/9/2015 21:26

When IC reiterates buy,,great time to sell ;-))

[tintin82] 04/9/2015 13:06

A challenging year for sure. IC tip update, reiterates buy.

[jakes114] 19/2/2015 22:39

Yes I noticed that, a bit like Ryan Air at least they know what they have to pay but are missing out on the price drop
Ah well

[jakes114] 19/2/2015 22:39

Yes I noticed that, a bit like Ryan Air at least they know what they have to pay but are missing out on the price drop
Ah well

[bunnji] 19/2/2015 20:09

Jakes,, they have already fully hedged their fuel costs until the end of 2016 and agreed 25% of 2017 costs, so probably paying well over current market prices for juice at the mo.

[jakes114] 10/2/2015 16:10

Thanks for that info, I find it a bit strange for a 1 billion £ company to have just a handful of shares traded each day. I am hoping that the trend will re-establish its self soon.

[bonnard] 09/2/2015 16:49

Dull is good. And I note that increases in ticket costs are still ahead of inflation.

[jakes114] 09/2/2015 14:11

This is a dull board is there no one with some comments on this company I bought in on the thought of lower fuel costs and since then the share price has dropped with just a handful of shares traded looking back the long term trend has been good plus a reasonable yield

Ideas anyone

Jakes

[bunnji] 04/9/2014 22:24

Great results. Confidence abounds and rightly so, hence the Divi nudge up. Patience is key for the the next twelve months but rewards are there to be had, and after having been here for what seems an eternity,I believe that next year and thereon, will again be beyond expectations, maybe game changers. Someone will eventually sit up and take notice.

Gl all.

[bunnji] 03/9/2014 16:00

Full results out tmmrw.

[bunnji] 04/7/2014 21:51

DLR Franchise a nice scoop for Keolis, begs the question why they did not team up with GOG, big as Ferrovial are.

[artibee] 29/5/2014 16:43

I have held here for ages for the yield, for a takeover play, for one of the few companies that makes money from unregulated buses and now blow me they're going to be a major rail player too! Is it all too good to be true?

[bunnji] 28/5/2014 23:30

Well,, what next? a bit of profit taking no doubt, then the bones get picked to see if there's any meat left on after the chancellors helping.
I for one think it's quite a scoop on GOG's part, and if nothing else expect a tickling of the divi, ;-)) time will tell. Gla

[bunnji] 28/5/2014 09:46

Knowlesy

Yes ;-))

[knowlesy427] 15/5/2014 17:44

What are peoples thoughts regarding the thameslink franchise?Has anything leaked to the press yet?

[phil140158] 18/2/2014 12:05

Buying into Thursday's trading statement by the looks of it.

[phil140158] 14/2/2014 17:02

5 year high granville!

[granville23] 12/2/2014 10:07

It is going up but will it hold...

[phil140158] 11/2/2014 18:40

Maybe this time?

[phil140158] 06/2/2014 16:45

I shall be opening a slightly better quality bottle of wine this evening. £20 has been a tough resistance, hopefully it'll push on from here.

[phil140158] 20/1/2014 21:25

Looks as if it could break the £20 barrier. Who'd have thought?

[bunnji] 13/1/2014 20:44

Hi Phil, well done, wouldnt be suprised to see a bit of profit taking, nice bit of momentum built up recently though here's hoping for more gl.

[phil140158] 13/1/2014 19:20

Hi Bunnji, good to see someone else is watching GOG. Yep - still got all mine. Sitting on a 40% plus gain on the share price, plus the dividends, so done well. Tested £19 today and pulled back, so maybe that'll be the top. Watch and hold for now I think.