Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[biggest bill] 02/11/2012 12:07

Both those buys are mine. I just feel that ged is a good bet at this level. Compared to other oil companies, the shares look very undervalued.

[fuiseog] 02/11/2012 12:01

Chop, chop, wakey wakey!

Couple of buys this morning total 50000+ no. firming up the share price Is somebody promoting GRD or are we having a little leak?

[adam] 01/11/2012 17:00

Waiting to find out if CHOPS working.

[eric76] 01/11/2012 16:19

Good to see some late buying here this afternoon lifting the share price a little.Looking positively frisky for GED.

[wooster4] 25/10/2012 12:31

The water disposal well will save the company alomost US$6million a year (on current levels of production). Straight to the bottom line. There really are some unbelievable bargains at the moment of which this is one of the best...need a change in arket sentiment though to get this moving...or a takeover (which imo is very probable)!

[pugugly] 24/10/2012 09:04

lowflow:> Thanks for your insight.

[lowflow] 22/10/2012 17:44

With 1700-1800 barrel of production in Q3 GED should by now have almost no net debt.

[lowflow] 22/10/2012 16:44

Quick update:

- Production is still at the same level as reported in the last operational update.
- The water-disposal well at the Rio Verde block was up and running in early October. This will create considerably cost-saving.
- The mgmt. and board is in a blackout period so they can't trade in the share at the moment.

[lowflow] 18/10/2012 18:23

PUGUGLY,
There is always a chance that GED will not manage to turn in the Bolivar and Bocachico field into commercial projects. When other E&P and mining companies doesn't manage to put significant project into commercial operation they usually manage to blow up the company. However I think that risk is close to zero when it comes to GED, due to the following reasons:
- The next test on Torcaz-3 well is only expected to cost ~$1m. The company has a pre-capex run-rate cash flow generation of $23m/y at the current oil production level. Consequently the capex required for the current Torcaz test is insignificant compared to cash flow.
- GED mgmt. may not move forward the company as fast as we has been hopping for but they do probably have the best cash management among all E&P on the AIM. The company has never raised equity since the company was listed in 2002.
- When it comes to the Bolivar project, I think its very likely that they will do a farm-out deal where the partner will cover all capex for the near future.

GED should have net cash by year end and the Llanos operation should continue to be a cash cow for a number of years.

[pugugly] 18/10/2012 08:26

WOOSTER4;> I am more worried about executional risk going forward - sandscreens, pumps, drilling etc than current cash position. Shanta seems to have been screwed by mucked up execution. As is noventa which is also on my "maybe" list.

Teh relentless sselling (for GED) could suggest that if there are any problems news may be leaking. I appreciate that an investor may have many other reasons for selling but a possilbe info leak on execuition has to be one of them

[wooster4] 17/10/2012 16:12

PUGUGLY - quote from interims - "we are in a strong position financially". No chance of a shanta situation!

[lowflow] 17/10/2012 14:28

Teacup2
They will either keep the sand screen and try to manage the flow of sand with the sand screens and if this is not possible they will reduce casing perforation which should result in a lower sand flow and take away the sand screens.

[teacup2] 17/10/2012 12:48

Thanks lowflow. I must say i don't really get it as i thought sand screens kept sand out and that was the problem with torcaz-3 ie it got clogged up. do you know if there going to be some kind of modication to the sand screen to allow sand production from it?

[pugugly] 17/10/2012 12:07

Down again - Does the market know something we do not? The relentless and large (for GED) selling suggests it may. I hope we do not have another Shanta Gold situation developing here. (Management failing to address operational issues in a timely fashion and keeping the shareholders and market advised)

[wooster4] 17/10/2012 11:17

thanks lowflow.

[eric76] 17/10/2012 11:12

Thanks for the update lowflow, geds closing a gap from June today. looks to complete by just over 68.25 so have had just a few for hoped for better times ahead spwise.
Will look to add if it turns I reckon.

[lowflow] 17/10/2012 11:10

GED sourced a work-over rig the first week of October. The actual installation of the new pump should start in the mid of October so if it's on track they should have begun to do the testing. They will run the test until the end of November and to judge from the last testing I don't think they will update the market until they are in the later part of the test. This time they are doing the test on the Torcaz-3 well and last time it was on the Torcaz-5 well. The Torcaz-3 well already has installed sand-screen which can be utilized together with the PC-pump. The Torcaz-3 well has produced approximately 50k bbl since the well was drilled while the Torcaz-5 well had only produced limited amount of oil (a few thousands barrel). The most productive well on the Torcaz field has been the Torcaz-2 well which has produced in excess of 150k barrel.
I think the last update was phrased a bit too negative in comparison to what they actually achieve. The whole thing with the Torcaz reservoir is that the permeability is to low so in conventional production they can only produce limited amount of oil. The CHOPS application single purpose is to enhance sand production and produce the sand because the sand production will increase the permeability in the reservoir and create warm-holes where the oil can flow. GED did manage to produce lots of sand in the last test which is a big success but they didn't manage to control the sand production. In my mind GED has made significant progress in the first test and now the next issue to be solved is mainly related to sand production control which is rather a mechanical issue than a reservoir issue. Its rare that a mechanical issues has stopped an oil field from being developed. Especially when the field hold 2bn barrel of oil in place.

[wooster4] 16/10/2012 16:29

lowflow - any idea how long testing will take and am i correct in thinking this is the second attempt (first attempt had some pump issues i recall)?

[lowflow] 16/10/2012 11:33

GED looks ridiculous cheap compared to last E&P deals in Colombia

Last night Canacol Energy announced that they will acquire Shona Energy. Both Canacol and Shona are Colombian focused E&P 's. Canacol will pay $164m in total for all outstanding shares and preferred shares. Shona is currently producing 2300 barrel of oil equivalent, all production is gas prices at $30/boe. Canacol is paying $71k per flowing barrel for Shona. GED is currently valued at $21k per flowing barrel, which means that GED is trading on a 70.5% discount to the deal price. Furthermore, GED is only producing oil where the realized price per barrel is approximately $8 below brent so their current realized price is $107 / barrel while Shona is only realizing $30 / barrel.

[lowflow] 11/10/2012 14:19

GED has now been able to secure a work-over rig to do the second test in the Torcaz project. Testing should begin shortly.

[eric76] 10/10/2012 15:29

These do look cheap for 1700bpd? They were mentioned on the amer thread earlier today as a comparision given the marketcap anomolies by geraldton1. Was quite an interesting read given the £26m valuation.
Have read the interims and no nasties so will hopefully manage a bit of research this evening before the low liquidity drives the price too high looking at todays price action.
edited to add thanks geraldton1 hadn't noticed it was your post above.

[teacup2] 10/10/2012 15:04

looks so cheap to me but just wary of the lack of liquidity.

If i've got it right the interims highlighted that prod was around 1100bopd and they still made a profit. Now production might be in the range of 1700-1800bopd and reduced water disposal costs - so what does that mean for the bottom line?

Upside from the other projects look unbelievably good if they come off.

[lowflow] 09/10/2012 23:51

Putting today share price in perspective.
GED shares price traded at 5 year low the 13 March 2009, at 43p. Today the stock closed at 70p or 62% above the 5 year low level. It is of course good that the share price is 62% above the 5 year low level but if you look at where GED is operationally its amazing that the stock price isn't higher. GED is today producing approximately 1750 bopd while in March 2009 the company was producing 1170 bopd. The brent price is today $114 and in March 2009 the brent price was at $44.5. Production is up 49% and the oil price is up 156% but the stock is only up 62%. GED net debt has also been reduced from $12m to $6m.

Have good night

[wooster4] 09/10/2012 11:56

since there is a very small free float, this moves on very little volume. Share price is more than underpinned by current production. Any good news will have a very dramatic effect upon the price. In the meantime we have to put up with mms trying to make a market.