Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 09/10/2012 11:39

lowflow:- Agreed:- which is why I topped up at 70.01 but worried there was bad news in the background which was leaking.

[lowflow] 09/10/2012 10:46

I haven't seen any news. I guess it's a retail shareholder who needs his money and given the liquidity in the stock you need to massacre the share price to sell 10-20k shares.

The stock is still the cheapest oil producer on the AIM, now trading at 4.1x 2012 P/E and 2.8x 2013 P/E.

Both the CEO and Chairman bought shares above 100p only a few months away.

There are several potential catalyst until the year end.

[pugugly] 09/10/2012 09:02

sp Crashed to 70p Looks like a big dump going on - Knowledge ? or has a well gone wrong ?

[lowflow] 02/10/2012 10:21

For those who haven't seen the article in the FT on oil majors interest in the Middle Magdalena shale. This should be great news for GED now when they are looking for a farm-in partner to the Bolivar block.

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Oil groups tussle for Colombian licenses

September 30, 2012 2:52 pm

By Guy Chazan

Some of the world's largest oil companies are jostling for
licences to explore for shale gas in Colombia, one of many
countries hoping to replicate the North American boom in
unconventional gas.

ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips are
among the more than 80 companies bidding for licences,
according to Javier Gutiérrez, chief executive of Ecopetrol,
Colombia's state-run energy company.
"There is definitely more interest in this licensing round than in
previous ones," he told the Financial Times.

The enthusiasm marks a turnround for Colombia, a country that was long a byword for political
violence and instability.

For years, it was wracked by fighting between government forces and leftist guerrilla groups like
the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. Rightwing paramilitaries and violent drug
cartels were also drawn into what became Latin America's longest-running armed conflict.
But with the government intensifying its crackdown on FARC over the past decade, violence has
subsided, with a sharp reduction in the number of kidnappings.

In recent months there has been an uptick in guerrilla attacks on pipelines and oilfields. But
Colombian oil officials say the frequency of the raids declined after FARC and the government
agreed last month to meet in Oslo in early October for their first talks in a decade.
The reduction in violence has coincided with government moves to open up the oil sector, such as
the partial privatisation of Ecopetrol in 2007.

Since then, the state company's fortunes have significantly improved, with its oil production
virtually doubling from 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2007 to about 750,000 boe/d
this year. It plans to increase that to 1.3 boe/d by 2020, with the help of an $80bn investment
programme.

Meanwhile, Ecopetrol's market value has risen more than fourfold since its initial public offering in
2007. In May it briefly surpassed that of Brazil's Petrobras, South America's biggest oil producer.
The Colombian government retains an 88.5 per cent stake in the company, with the rest publicly
traded.

The liberalisation of the oil sector and the cooling of the armed conflict have stimulated the interest
of western majors, who have been particularly drawn to Colombia's vast deposits of
"unconventionals" – shale oil and gas, oil sands and coal bed methane. Thirty-one of the blocks up
for grabs in the latest exploration licensing round contain unconventional resources.

Attention has focused on the Middle Magdalena basin, which has already drawn comparisons with
the huge Eagle Ford shale in the southern US and the vast Vaca Muerta ("Dead Cow") shale in
western Argentina

A report by consultancy Arthur D Little put Colombia's recoverable shale gas reserves at 31.7tn
cubic feet. Ecopetrol says it plans to be producing 50,000 boe/d of unconventionals by 2020.

Colombia has offered a number of incentives to investors in its shale gas reserves, such as a 40 per
cent discount on royalty rates. The deadline for offers in the licensing round is mid-October, with
awards expected in November and contracts signed by the end of the year.

ConocoPhillips confirmed it had been pre-qualified to participate in the oil leasing round. Shell
said only that it had submitted a qualification to bid. Exxon declined to comment.

[philo124] 01/10/2012 14:47

and it's the third coat!

[fuiseog] 01/10/2012 14:18

We're waiting for the paint to dry -:)

[k mon] 01/10/2012 13:59

Having a slow day at work - so I'm doing a little research for my SIPP & ISA.

Came across these broker views
Both issued last week on Sept 26th. - presumably after the interim results.

GED :Westhouse Securities - Strong Buy : Target 279.00
GED :Northland Capital - Buy Target : 214.00

So I thought I'd have a look on the thread.

- Surprised no one here mentioned them.
[& that the thread is so quiet come to that - I thought the thread would be jumping with that kind of news]

One broker being a bit off on a target might not be worth comment - but when two have targets so far away from the current share price one has to wonder.

Is there somthing I'm missing?

[flyingbull] 28/9/2012 20:36

Please find below the link for entering the October 2012 Monthly Oil Stock Competition. Deadline for entry is this Sunday at midnight.



Good luck!!!

fb

[johnwise] 26/9/2012 08:08

RNS Number : 1514N
Global Energy Development PLC
INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2012
HIGHLIGHTS:
-- Revenue increased by 18 per cent. to $20.2 million (H1 2011: $17.1 million);

-- Average gross production decreased 17 per cent. to 202,247 barrels of oil ("bbls") (H1 2011: 244,040 bbls) due to the temporary downtime of the Tilodiran 2 well (126 days) during the Period;

-- Gain of $810,000, net of taxes (H1 2011: nil) on sale of remaining interest in Block 95 in Peru ;

-- Profit before taxation of $1.2 million (H1 2011; $2.6 million);
-- Net profit of $2.0 million (H1 2011: $3.9 million net profit due to a significant non-cash tax benefit of $1.2 million received);
and
-- Capital expenditures of $6.0 million predominantly related to the workover programmes of the Tilodiran 2 and the Torcaz 5 wells and the conversion of the Rio Verde 2 well into a water injection well.

Stephen Voss, Managing Director, commenting on the results, said:
"We are in a strong financial position from recent improvements in our on-going Llanos oil production and are focusing on partnering efforts and our development plans in the Magdalena Valley".

[philo124] 26/9/2012 07:30

Interim Results are out. Regards.

[adam] 20/9/2012 16:16

As the Company transports and disposes of more than 120,000 barrels of water each month from its Tilodiran field, we anticipate that this disposal well will save an average of $4.00 per barrel of water transportation costs per month, translating into significant cost savings for the Company.

$5.7m / year if they were able to divert all 120k barrels / month or 4k barrels of water /day. Certainly worth doing.

Several major international companies have recently shown significant interest in the Bolivar Contract area, with Shell E&P - Colombia and ExxonMobil Exploration Colombia Limited both announcing partnerships in block areas adjacent to the Company's Contract area. The Company may also consider partnering with highly-experienced operators in order to accelerate the development of our reserve base and increase shareholder value.

Let's hope they can get decent terms.

[philo124] 20/9/2012 16:15

Thank you for your detailed reply.

[lowflow] 20/9/2012 16:05

The answer is no, the run-rate operating profit at 1800 bopd is only 50% of the market cap.

The run-rate EBITDA is 73% of the market cap.

GED needs to increase the daily production to 2200 bopd to get the annual EBITDA to the same level as the market cap.

The company could potentially get to 2200 bopd in the end of 2012 without any success at Torcaz or Bolivar. The solution is the Tilodiran-1 well in the Rio Verde block. The well was drilled in 1986 by the previous operator and it had initial flow rate of 258 bopd but the well-bore collapsed and very limited amounts of oil was produced. In 2004/2005 GED re-completed the well had the well produced 400-500 bopd after a few months production they had the same problem with the well as in1986 and the production was closed down. The company has been planning to do a work-over on the well later this year and they will either re-complete it or try to perforate a formation which has not been produced from this well but which has been producing in the Rio Verde block.

[philo124] 19/9/2012 08:17

Is GED's current annual operating profit greater than their Mkt Cap?

[wooster4] 19/9/2012 08:16

we all know this is hugely undervalued but the problem is this is under the radar of your normal aim punter. However, given the very small free float and low market cap, ant positive news will have a hugely significant effect on price!

[philo124] 19/9/2012 08:02

RNS Out. Worth reading to the end- 1700/1800 bopd. Mkt Cap £26m.

[wooster4] 12/9/2012 16:20

interims due any day now!

[lowflow] 12/9/2012 15:59

Its rare to see this type of consistent buying in the stock over the day.

[geraldton1] 12/9/2012 15:23

Bit of life in this thing...finally.

[geraldton1] 03/9/2012 21:42

This stock must surely be ridiculously undervalued? The Brent price is $115, so with production of say 1,750-1,800 bopd they must be making a decent return - particularly if the water disposal well (and the resultant cost saving) has been completed (as promised by July). In addition, the chairman was buying heavily right up to the closed period (even the CEO picked up a few). Management are of an age where you would assume they would start to consider an exit - at a multiple of current levels. Interim results later this month should give the opportunity for a long overdue update on operational (CHOPS etc) progress. As soon as the seller is cleared this thing should start to motor due to the shareholder structure/limited free float. Any thoughts? A new broker would surely help push this stock to a newer/wider audience?

[johnwise] 31/8/2012 13:21

Global Energy Development (GED)
Forecasts
Year Ending 31-Dec-12
Revenue (£m) 31.61
Pre-tax (£m) 10.73
EPS 21.42p
P/E 3.4
Growth.+464%
Div 0.0%
Yield n/a 0.0%
..................................

Forecast 31-Dec-13
Revenue (£m) 36.93
Pre-tax (£m) 13.98
EPS 27.94p
P/E 2.6
Growth +30%
Div n/a
Yield 0.0%

What The Brokers Say
03-Jul-12 Northland Capital Partners - Buy
11-Jun-12 Northland Capital Partners - Buy
09-May-12 Goldman Sachs - Buy
22-Mar-12 Westhouse Securities - Buy
21-Mar-12 Northland Capital Partners - Buy
.

[philo124] 31/8/2012 09:23

fuiseog; i agree.

[flyingbull] 31/8/2012 08:56

Just a short message to let you know the September oil stock competition is now open, link attached below.

[fuiseog] 31/8/2012 08:45

I'd rather hear an update on CHOPS than an extension of borrowing timescales -:)