Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[2magpies] 29/1/2014 10:20

"Mozy123
29 Jan'14 - 09:16 - 655 of 656 0 0

................

Would you buy a chinese BMW or a german one?"

If you can vest tiny inanimate, plastic, painted objects with imagined anthropomorphic volition and motility, you can pretend a Chinese BMW is in fact from Germany?

Mr Market can be cruel to sentimental punters.

[2magpies] 29/1/2014 10:05

GAW is still capitalised at £165m. IMO that's a lot, for a company that has declining revenues, doesn't pay a dividend, and isn't a biotech, oiler, miner, or hi-tech bluesky thingy.

[mozy123] 29/1/2014 09:16

Nothing better than the real thing!

GW has always been a premium expensive product.

I remember as a kid saving pocket money and birthday money for weeks to buy my armies. Great fun and adds to the excitment.

The army books, models and materials are exceptional quality.

Would you buy a chinese BMW or a german one?

[nod] 28/1/2014 22:54

I would also add that I have seen many Chinese-made replicas that are very good and a fraction of the price of GW. These have been around for many years and GW is powerless to stop them. Whilst they clearly eat into GW sales it doesn't end sales. Just like counterfeit football shirts doesn't stop Nike and Adidas selling millions of the expensive things. With Chinese online purchases, you don't always get what you pay for though - caveat emptor.Type "chinese replicas of warhammer" into Google.

[2magpies] 28/1/2014 22:47

there appears to be a lot of unhappiness about the price of GAW stuff.

That is not a good thing for any business.

GAW is now no longer an investment, but is a gamble, imo, as it no longer pays a dividend.

If the (growing) unhappiness about their prices feeds through to a slump in sales figures, I, for one won't be surprised. Mr Market could really savage the sp, if there is another fall in revenue.

GAW is still capitalised at £165m. IMO that's a lot, for a company that doesn't pay a dividend, and isn't a biotech, oiler, miner, or hi-tech bluesky thingy.

[mozy123] 28/1/2014 21:58

Nod - I completely agree - the value is in the pure design brilliance and detailed models GW produce.

In the history of GW they have yet to be mastered on the scale of GW.

Im up to my 10% allocation rule with GW after my small purchase today.

[nod] 28/1/2014 21:04

3D printers and scanners can certainly make decent replicas to be hand-painted. They would not be anywhere near as detailed as the real models and would not be cheap to produce, even if you had the printer, scanner and consumables. I very much doubt that GW will ever make their models into a template for the world to make on 3D printers at home - that would be commercial suicide. Scanning will be their only option.This home-made modelling is what enthusiasts have always done for 80 years, using all sorts of techniques, tools and materials. If any of you have witnessed tabletop gaming you will have seen just about everything possible. This doesn't stop people buying from GW though. Quite the opposite - it's these same enthusiasts who spend regularly and consistently on the real models. You would not be wasting your time and money on DIY models if you were not an absolute enthusiast. If you think gamers are going to turn up at GW game-days with only home-made models then you don't understand the GW world. Precision painting and tabletop gaming are a big part of this world.We have a French friend who makes plaster cast models of just about anything. This technique would make a better and much cheaper replica GW model than a 3D printer/scanner option. She has been doing this for 30 years, so replication is not a new threat.

[fenners66] 28/1/2014 18:36

Woozle I think you missed this bit:-

I have seen 3d printed space ships for a game already, simple maybe but the designers commented that these were a fraction of the cost.

Fact.

And true enough the designs were simple , to start with but code has a way of making its self available in the public domain for free.

Mozy adapting to a new market - yes I like that , but will the directors grasp the idea as quickly? It would be difficult to sell your competition at the same time as the existing range and maintain price/margin. There's no doubt that whilst cd's are not dead they do not command the price they once did.

3 d printing will take time to become mainstream, but gaming models are precisely the sort of expensive small commodity that they can be put to use to. It may be that already there are some pending copyright claims however it will not take too much to get people free open versions or designing /modifying their own.

[2magpies] 28/1/2014 17:50

"Woozle1
28 Jan'14 - 17:10 - 648 of 648 0 0

.......

One point re the broker. They are either incompetent or deliberately putting out misleading info to shake the tree and scare off the income funds who just invested."


why on earth would they do that? how does it help the Company if its shares plummet? isn't that negative publicity?

Many fund managers have a policy on profit warnings: sell on the first one, and don't buy back until after the third.

This is what Nicola Horlick said:

"I always sell on the first profits warning. There will be optimists out there thinking there is time for things to pick up, so there will be a two-way trade of stocks at that point. Wait until the third downgrade and you have no hope of getting out."

[woozle1] 28/1/2014 17:10

Without doubt, 3D is not a risk. The quality is not there and will not be for some time. Moreover, printing takes quite some time and is expensive. 3D printing works for protoypes etc but you would really struggle to get the level if detail that the miniatures.

One point re the broker. They are either incompetent or deliberately putting out misleading info to shake the tree and scare off the income funds who just invested. There will be a dividend!
W

[mozy123] 28/1/2014 17:00

Without doubt 3d printing is a risk - but was the mp3 a risk to cd producing music companies and record labels.

Hardly - they just adapted to the new market.

GW will simply sell the electronic instructions and the materials to print own thier own models.

Its the design and the IP these fantastically produced models have that is the value in GW - not if they sell the physical models or not in the future.

[fenners66] 28/1/2014 16:31

At last a comment that has some substance....
the future proliferation of 3 d printers may just make GAW obsolete.
I have seen 3d printed space ships for a game already, simple maybe but the designers commented that these were a fraction of the cost.

[2magpies] 28/1/2014 09:23

Yet another article I read was an entry in 'uncyclopedia' for GAW.

Comes across as biased, and we don't even know if any of it's correct.
I would stay away from it. Do NOT read it.

(and that goes for you too, Mr. Market!)

[opodio] 27/1/2014 20:53

complete pile of carp

[2magpies] 27/1/2014 20:52

I just read some more stuff about GAW on Observation Deck.

Hmm.

[2magpies] 27/1/2014 08:15

'increase' in sales may be misleading: it could simply be a reflection of price increases. Thus, they may be fewer actual items being sold, but at higher prices. This could be temporarily flattering the 'sales' figures, as the customers might become disgruntled and curtail/stop their buying, in protest.

Several bloggers say they have done just that.

Will GAW reduce prices to encourage customers? What will that do to revenue? And dividend......?

[nod] 27/1/2014 02:22

GAW salesReturning to the comments of the bloggers. I wondered what percentage of GAW sales were from the hardcore gamers - the veterans as GW calls them. From what they write I gather that they will form an important part of the Forge World and Black Library sales. These are broken out of the UK sales and placed under 'other' along with digital sales. I don't know what they mean by digital sales but its not online sales as online was 14.4 million which on its own is greater than 'other' at 12.98 million.'Other' sales represent 10% of total turnover. Other sales were up 20% in the year to 2 June 2013 and profits were up 38% indicating this is a minor but profitable part of GW. From the recent Interims, other category is still performing well - up 9% in H1 - suggesting the veterans are moaning but still buying Forge World and BL.From the numbers it looks as though the business specifically set up for the veterans is small at 10% of total sales but healthy. The other 90% is where the decline took place across all regions and has been most affected by the combination of changes. Being by far the biggest chunk of the business it's important to get this right. Making several changes at the same time and rapidly makes it harder to clearly identify the root causes of problems.Annual Report:Other. This includes the other operating segments reviewed by the chief operating decision-maker. These are the Forge World business, the Black Library business, digital sales and Warhammer World. Annual report:Our online shop is doing well. Sales are up to £14.4 million from £13.1 million. During the year we built a new one and will be testing it over the coming year. It is planned to be fully operational in April 2014.

[2magpies] 26/1/2014 10:09

What does seem to be coming across is the disquiet (even downright revolt) at the level of prices for GAW products.

Some, very loyal (and addicted) customers are expressing unhappiness.

For a business that relies on core customers, it should be a worry if they aren't happy.

Some are suggesting that the advent of 3d printers, which could become inexpensive in the not-too-distant future could pose a serious threat.

In my opinion, high prices will reduce sales (and probably already are), and will deter newcomers (and probably already are). So I wouldn't be surprised to see sharp, and continued falls in revenue.

I could be wrong.

Anyone else believe the same/differently?

[2magpies] 24/1/2014 21:41

wooz

why would noddy mention his age and years in shares?

who cares?

this is a thread on a BB.

claiming to be 60 with 30 years in shares (and it is he who mentioned it in the first place), he still posted a serious claim about inside info.

That's what drew the comment.

I note that neither you nor any of the others has picked him up on that (other than praipus' question)

The point about the negative bloggers is that they love the 'Hobby', but, my, just read what they are saying about GAW!

If you love GAW, I strongly suggest you do NOT read what's on 1d4chan re Games Workshop.

Yes, I agree there are biased bloggers around, and one shouldn't believe everything they say.

But we can spot bits that have a ring truth about them.

[woozle1] 24/1/2014 21:18

Oh dear 2ms .. Mockery is pretty low from someone who bangs the drum with the same tune and doesn't listen .. it's simple and you either believe the hobby has a future or not and whether or not you think the one man shop model works .. we'll have a better idea re the latter over the next 12 months .. and re the former, I suggest you widen your sampling to more than one shop and a few disgruntled bloggers .. complainers tend to shout louder and happy customers are out there enjoying the hobby .. i better keep my age (and probably gender!) for fear of your mocking tones ..w

[2magpies] 24/1/2014 09:58

"Nod
23 Jan'14 - 19:11 - 624 of 635 0 0


Quantum Hedge Fund was obviously short and their holding was known to us before the fall. In hindsight, that was a warning. They obviously had inside information on the numbers."

"
Nod
24 Jan'14 - 00:00 - 631 of 635 0 0


Praipus, if Quantum's position is not a short one they have taken a big hit and will surely either be adding at these levels or getting out."


"nod
24 Jan'14 - 02:31 - 634 of 635 0 0

............My concerns that Quantum may be shorting GAW is unfounded. In fact they remain a major shareholder."


eh???


So you basically made it up. Your statement was very emphatic. You said the Fund was 'obviously short'. Where did you get that from?

You also said, clearly, that: they 'obviously had inside information'. A very serious claim indeed.

And then you back tracked, and posted, at 2.31 a.m.!! Tossing and turning, were you? Having made such a claim?

'Twas ever thus: filter-bunnies tend to make utter baffoons of themselves, ultimately. But to make allegations of criminality: that's serious. Very serious.

What else have you made up, nodders?? eh??

Oh, and remember what you said about me:

"nod
16 Jan'14 - 22:38 - 583 of 636 1 0

So, it is clear you made up the story about often walking past a dimly lit shop.

You are a blatant liar who is on this board to mislead people and state untruths."

oh dear!


............................................................................

"Nod
16 Jan'14 - 20:20 - 575 of 577 0 0

....
I am over 60 years old, with 30 years investing in shares."

[nod] 24/1/2014 02:38

I updated the thread header with that info to make the situation clearer

10 Jan 2014 Quantum Partners reduces holding to 3.69% (from over 4%)
16 Jan 2014 Interim Results (to 1st Dec 2013)
16 Jan 2014 Schroders buys to appear on register with 5.268%

[nod] 24/1/2014 02:31

Praipus, I read the Quantum rns closely and they reduced their holding to 3.69% from over 4% by selling shares on 10 January. Quantum have in fact been a long-term holder in GAW since 2011 and probably earlier, going above 3% on 4 August 2011 and 4% on 15 November 2011.

Quantum's current shareholding is only 75k less than it was in November 2011

My concerns that Quantum may be shorting GAW is unfounded. In fact they remain a major shareholder.

[nod] 24/1/2014 02:00

Bliss :))

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