Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[nod] 16/11/2019 01:07

Exciting stuff. Throw into that mix the TV Series starring Gregor Eisenhorn. If the series is a hit, GAW could develop models and games centred around The Inquisitor, as Dan Abnett's novels already are.

[cockerhoop] 15/11/2019 19:34

Just when you settle down to concentrate on Sister of Battle sales!!!



Reviving Warhammer Fantasy.......by 2022 we could have

40k
AoS
Horus Heresy
LOTR prequel to support Amazon series
Warhammer The Old World

Ambitious plans!

[daijavu] 15/11/2019 09:37

A great article, thanks

[luderitz] 15/11/2019 09:33

Thanks for the link fellas a very good article I thought.

[cockerhoop] 15/11/2019 09:06

Decent article highlighting the recruitment themes we've talked about on here for a while. Incidentally the photo highlights the new contrast paints (where the floating pigments settle in the crevices to create contrast effects with a single coat).Regards the moan about the AGM time - GAW have arranged 2 institutional days this year in Mar & Oct to highlight the progress to the city.

[hawaly] 15/11/2019 08:51

Link here:

[woozle1] 15/11/2019 08:35

Excellent art in the ft today .. w1

[nimbo1] 14/11/2019 12:30

When you look at what is out there growing much slower GAW could easily be sat on a 30x forward PE depending on what the wider market does. Peel Hunt have 2020 EPS at 225.5 (ultra cautious?) so I think this has legs to about £67.5 without being crazy. Thats without further upgrades which could happen on the back of q4 trading / the new releases this black Friday.

For balance Im a biassed shareholder who would like to see this at £100 : )

[nod] 14/11/2019 09:26

Brexit-related tension may be weighing on a great number of retailers but for this business, a mix of its leadership in the niche fantasy gaming arena, allied with steady international expansion, is allowing earnings to keep chugging along nicely.

A model share
Games Workshop has proved to be a beauty for both growth and income seekers over the past half a decade. Since fiscal 2014 the annual dividend has exploded by 288%, driven by earnings almost quadrupling in that time.

With City analysts expecting the bottom line to keep blasting higher – and supported by its brilliant cash generation that left £29.4m of net cash on the books as of June – it’s no shock that they’re expecting more meaty payout growth over the medium term.

The number crunchers over at Edison, for example, expect the bottom line to swell an extra 14% in the current fiscal year (to May 2020) and this gives rise to a predicted dividend of 177p per share, up from 155p time. Moreover, helped by an estimated 6% profits rise in financial 2021 the full-year payouts are expected to advance to 187p.

These dividend projections yield 3.3% and 3.5% respectively, thrashing the returns that one can expect from a Cash ISA and help take the edge off Games Workshop’s high forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 times.

[shanklin] 11/11/2019 19:59

At least we know neither of them would ever produce over estimates

[nod] 11/11/2019 19:02

Thanks Robin.Peel Hunt slightly lower than Edison.

[crazycoops] 11/11/2019 11:57

Thanks both for the summaries. Regarding the press comment, there would perhaps be less head scratching if they stopped thinking about GAW as a retailer and started thinking of it as an IP owner with an integrated go to market strategy - manufacturing, direct retail (physical and online), trade distribution and royalties.

[robinnicolson] 11/11/2019 10:31

Peel Hunt updated forecasts for FY2020, FY2021, FY2022

Turnover: £279.3m; £293.0m; £307.4m
EBITDA: £108.4m; £114.2m; £116.9m
EBIT: £92.5m; £98.0m,
Profit before tax: £92.8m; £97.8m; £102.0m
Post-tax profit: £75.0m, £79.5m;
EPS: 227.3p; 239.0p, 244.3p
Dividend: 158.5p, 166.0p
Capex: £21.5m; £16.5m
FCF: £69.4m; £81.1m
Cash: £41.5m; £61.9m

[nod] 09/11/2019 09:08

Wonderful press comments around the world. Not a single negative. No uncertain words in the update for the press to latch onto.

FT
Games Workshop has fine-tuned its proposition and hit on a winning formula. The fantasy world seems less susceptible to going in and out of fashion and that should enable the company to keep delivering the magic.

UK Telegraph
Analysts at Peel Hunt called the update 'storming' and said they expected Games Workshop to reveal growth in trade, retail and online sales channels for the first half when it issues more details.

The Times
A company that specialises in creating war games involving goblins and dwarfs continues to claim victory in the battle on the high street.

BBC
But one 250 stock has won all the glory today: Games Workshop's share price is up 19% after this morning's very positive trading update suggested its heading towards more victories on the retail battlefield.

Sharesmagazine
Peel Hunt today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Games Workshop Group PLC (LON:GAW) and raised its price target to 5000p from 4750p.

Thisismoney
Why is Games Workshop on the up?
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Games Workshop continues to be a master in the art of brevity with its latest trading statement. The message is fairly simple: earnings are growing which is a commendable feat in the troubled world of retail.

Having a niche focus can help certain retailers be isolated from the pains facing general merchandisers. In Games Workshop’s case, it couldn’t be any more niche if it tried. Its customers are fanatical, loyal and part of a vibrant community whose hobby is centred on miniature figures.

While it isn’t entirely immune from any economic downturn and the negative effects that might have on consumer spending, there is a sense that Games Workshop is currently enjoying a sweet spot whereby it is offering products which appeal to its end-market and in an engaging way.

The community spirit of its offering, particularly the way staff interacts with customers in-store, gives it an edge over mainstream retailers."
.

[nimbo1] 08/11/2019 19:04

Why are all analysts cautious on GAW - is it because they confuse it with the 'retail sector'...Their IP is largely untapped and basically in for free - they could do so much more themselves with computer games / tv etc in due course. Imagine google new gaming platform doing a deal with GAW to provide IP to host a real live action strategy games played through the cloud with supporters watching / sponsoring or taking part as they want etc. Perfectly possible.

Probably set to 2-4x from here in my view over 3 years with PBT doubling. Its a totally unique company and somebody somewhere will be thinking about buying it.

I do own and like being a shareholder here : )

[woozle1] 08/11/2019 18:58

Traditionally this is an H2 weighted business and there've been no big releases in H1; so, I'd expect the earnings momentum to continue. Even allowing for lumpy royalty, I think PBT will be £105 and EPS nearer 250p.
w1

[nod] 08/11/2019 18:30

Edison highlights that royalty income will now be more "lumpy". It is forecasting lower royalties in H220 than in H219 due to the timing of licenses. They use the word "cautious" as they don't know what may be signed in H2.
The extra 5 million royalty booked in H1 skews the PBT.
That aside, excellent sales growth and an improvement in margins.

[cockerhoop] 08/11/2019 16:06

Good Luck with that David! See you next week.

[davidosh] 08/11/2019 12:46

I think quite a few of you are already coming to MelloLondon next week but just to mention Games Workshop won the best company and best chairman and CEO at the Mello Awards in 2018 for their performance in 2017. Clearly it was totally deserved and pleasantly it is my largest holding although I had zero influence over the Awards which were voted on by thousands.

Anyway just to mention that now the trading update is out I will make another attempt at getting one of the directors to collect all the awards at this years event on 12th & 13th November but also worth knowing that we are covering Games Workshop in the MelloBASH (Buy,Avoid,Sell or Hold) session.

There are still a few tickets left. The two day Mello London investor conference is in Chiswick London W4 on Tuesday 12th and Wednesday 13th November and there will be an opportunity to take part in a Q&A at the end of each presentation. These are just a few of the companies taking part...



There will also be lots of quality keynote speakers, panel sessions and round table discussions looking at investment strategies & portfolio diversification plus sessions on.... How does a market maker work your share trades? What is undertaken in a company audit? What is hidden on the dark web? & how can retail investors get access to placings?



If you would like to join the thousand investors at the event you can gain 40% discount on your ticket by entering the code ADVFN40 when you purchase your ticket.

[push n run] 08/11/2019 12:34

£100m PBT for the year would beat Edison's 2021 target as well (98.2m). There's conservatism and then there's sheer obtuseness.

[madmix] 08/11/2019 12:20

PBT split last year was 50%/50% between H1 and H2. In the previous year the split was 52%/48%. With such a significant increase in royalty income in H1, it might be prudent to expect a split of around 55%/45% in the current year, which would suggest around £100m PBT for the year. This would require a growth in profits of 11% in H2 (vs H2 last year) from £40.5m to £45m. Doesn't seem particularly demanding.

Edison's new £92.7m forecast suggests a fall of 7% in H2 PBT from £40.5m to £37.7m.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see further upgrades to come as the year progresses.

[robinnicolson] 08/11/2019 12:05

Thanks, I missed that transaction. I believe he currently holds 1.29 million shares.

[cockerhoop] 08/11/2019 11:55

He (TK) sold 0.8% of the company in August 19

[robinnicolson] 08/11/2019 11:46

I wonder if we're going to see more selling from Tom Kirby...his last big sale transaction was c.556,000 shares at £36.50 in September 2018.

[push n run] 08/11/2019 11:41

So GW announces a PBT for H1 of "not less than" 55m, and Edison's forecast is only £92.7m for the full year? That represents a significant slowdown. Even if we assume a significant amount of accelerated royalty income I'd expect over £100m for the full year.