Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[robinnicolson] 17/8/2018 16:43

As long ago as 2004 Tom Kirby, (CEO and Chairman at the time), wrote that "the main source of risk remains management error"...a warning echoed by present management.
It must be extremely rare for a company not to be primarily worried about a serious competitive threat developing...especially over such a long time span.

Does anyone know of any potential rivals emerging, perhaps in the USA, or has Games Workshop dug an almost insurmountable moat?

[robinnicolson] 17/8/2018 15:22

Following on from the post above regarding the 'Buffettology' fund, I am absolutely certain there is no fund manager with a deeper knowledge of Games Workshop than Keith Ashworth-Lord of Sanford Deland. He was writing in-depth investment articles about GAW for 'Analyst' magazine more than twenty years ago.
He is still adding to his fund holding. According to Morningstar another 14,003 shares were bought in the period ending July 2018.

[nod] 17/8/2018 12:55

Rhomboid, I think the clue is in "net funds" at year end. This is above the para you posted.2016/17 year accounts:"there were net funds at the year end of £17.9 million (2016: £11.8 million)." ... 52% increase on prior year2017/18 accounts:"there were net funds at the year end of £28.5 million (2017: £17.9 million)."Around 10.6 million more this year end ... 59% increase on lastGAW distributes to shareholders cash it does not require.

[push n run] 17/8/2018 12:11

It's been proven that there's an inverse correlation between number of bulletin board posts and investor returns, so not a huge surprise that there's not much activity here!

[rhomboid] 17/8/2018 10:59

I’m expecting dividend news too..the only Q is what level given the greater level of Capex..from the results

‘In 2017/18 we invested £1.4 million in shop fits: 43 new stores and 7 refurbishments. We also invested £4.4 million in tooling, milling and injection moulding machines and a further £3.1 million on moulding tools. The investment in computer software relates mainly to the work on the new ERP system. The investment in Lenton site includes the purchase of land (£1.7 million) and building costs to expand the site. Capital investment is expected to be higher than depreciation and amortisation over the next few years as we increase our production capacity and upgrade our core back office systems in Nottingham’

..so 28.5m cash at year end ..less 9.6m post y/e dividend but strong cash generation post y/e ..hmm I’ve no idea what level they’ll pay out but it could surprise the market on the upside if post y/e trading has been as strong as I suspect

[nod] 17/8/2018 10:46

Compared with other boards that have 50+ posts a day and the share price moves little, this is a very quiet board. I suppose everyone else is too embarrassed to admit to being invested in toy soldiers. Coming up next I believe will be the dividend. GAW doesn't do predictable things on predictable dates, so it's best to give a very wide window on dates. Last year divis were June 20p and Sept 35p This year we had June 35p ... so I'm expecting a bonanza of 45p in early September. Any thoughts?

[nod] 17/8/2018 10:24

I should have mentioned that a fund's past performance is not an indication of future performance.

[nod] 17/8/2018 07:18

Retire wealthy: 3 spectacular growth funds that are smashing the FTSE 100

Edward Sheldon, CFA | Sunday, 12th August, 2018



CFP SDL UK Buffettology Fund
This fund came to my attention recently when I was browsing through Hargreaves Lansdown’s top performing UK (all companies) funds on a one-year basis. Over that time frame, the fund is actually the best performer on the investment platform with a 12-month return of a high 23.4%. And it’s not a one-year wonder either – over three years, the fund is up 69.1% and over five years it has returned an amazing 117.3%.

The £409m fund is run by Keith Ashworth-Lord of boutique asset manager Sanford DeLand Asset Management. As the name suggests, the portfolio manager takes a Warren Buffett-esque approach to investing, looking for excellent businesses at an excellent price. The top holdings of Games Workshop Group, Bioventix, AB Dynamics, Dart Group, and LionTrust Asset Management suggest that the portfolio manager clearly has a small-cap focus here. Fees are relatively high at 1.3% per year through Hargreaves, but with such excellent performance figures, the fees don’t look unreasonable.

Want To Retire Early?

[nod] 15/8/2018 04:02

On the topic of own retail stores. These are hobby centres rather than profit centres. While they bring in a lot if revenue they have usually made a small loss. In 2016/17 - which was a very good year - the 462 own stores made an operating profit of only $500,000. Own store Revenue was greater than the Trade 3,900 stores. Seldom have I seen our stores make a profit. This past year was exceptional, giving us a profit of 7.2 million from our own stores with revenue growth of 27%. Trade outlets contributed 32.9 million in profit, on greater revenue than own stores for a change (for the first time I believe). Trade has been a step-change for revenue and profit. The stores, both own and Trade, are the primary places where we recruit new customers. This is why GAW has to give own stores a lot of focus and get the format right.

[nod] 14/8/2018 23:43

Warhammer is expensive and classed in the luxury category. It requires a lot of cash before you can start playing tabletop.A six year old is probably too young to appreciate and participate in the hobby. My son and his friends were around nine when they first started going into the hobby store to paint and play tabletop. This was quite intimidating as the customers were mostly teenagers 13+ up to uni students and early 20s. Young kids have to be very mature to handle with this.At that time LOTR had been released and pulled in a lot younger hobbyists. Most of the veterans continued to play 40k while the newbies, plus a few vets, were drawn into LOTR. The excellent magazines sold at newsagents played a key role in the marketing, with a free LOTR model with each issue (some metal models).I started my son on cheap models that he could practice painting. Painting is a key part of the hobby. Those kids who didn't enjoy painting tended to drop out fairly quickly.

[robinnicolson] 14/8/2018 16:27

epo001

I calculated the average revenue per UK store was £189,000 for FY 2018. Worldwide the average was £168,000 per store.

The average operating lease per store has declined dramatically over the past decade or so, presumably as management closed stores in more expensive retail areas and moved into smaller one-man premises in cheaper locations.

[cockerhoop] 14/8/2018 15:06

Epo,GAW appear to have got much more adept at providing set at different price points. Depends on the size & value of the pieces included.You can buy a 10 piece army for £20-£30 or for £80 (£64 from independents) you could get a Kill Zone starter set with 2 sets of armies, board, scenery, dice, cards and rules which I think is reasonable value.In addition the GAW store doubles as a hobby centre where you can spend all day constructing and painting your models with expert assistance or having battles with your mates.You're buying a lifestyle not a piece of plastic :-)

[epo001] 14/8/2018 13:26

I guess that makes you a potential customer, there are plenty who would see it as a couple of days food. Which makes my point, GAW's customer base for figures is the well-off, inflation is not a big deal to them.

[hyper ai] 14/8/2018 10:05

slowed a bit?
lol

[flatoutfred] 14/8/2018 09:22

So much uncertainty everywhere so I'm staying put for a while yet. This has been one of my best performers but has slowed a bit now but worth sitting for the divi. I'm now out of all my other Long stuff and going back to Day Trading for a while. Still enjoy your knowledgeable input Nod, Lang may yer Lum reek !!

[nod] 13/8/2018 22:56

Fred, it was a buy at the day's top price, which is why it was encouraging. I suspect the latest breach into blue skies is on the back of a realisation that there are more likely to be currency tailwinds than the headwinds PH predicted. In particular, the USD looks like rising further over the coming 12 months. Which is good for GAW. Over the longer term, this may flow through to inflation if Iraqi oil sanctions are maintained. Which may not be good for GAW.

[woozle1] 13/8/2018 13:31

Watch out Character Group, then.
w1

[flatoutfred] 13/8/2018 12:42

wasn't me Nod, someone taking profits ?

[nod] 09/8/2018 20:22

A large trade with a value over 375,000 pounds is encouraging. I hear some uk companies will be impacted by the US tariffs on China made products. Thankfully, we don't make our products in China.

[nod] 08/8/2018 22:12

GAW doesn't seem to give a geographic breakdown of its Trade outlets but we do know they increased the overall number by 200 stores compared with +100 in previous years. They do give a breakdown of our own stores which shows the focus over the past year:

UK -3
North America +23
Europe +3
Australia & NZ +1
Asia +3

NA still has four fewer own stores than the UK but has a youth population around five times larger. Plenty of scope for further growth across North America.

"there were 41,731,233 youth age 10-19 in the United States" US census

[nod] 08/8/2018 18:48

We are a GBP 1 Billion company again. MV 1,012.09 Million

[nod] 08/8/2018 07:16

I agree with Craig that the USA in particular offers huge potential. Trade retailers do a good job at promoting GAW products in their 'hood and offer hobbyists a place to paint and play with like-minded gamers. I see the Trade retailers as a crucial part of the recent growth across the USA. Embrace Trade.