Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[santr0] 07/8/2018 15:34

As I understand many investors are concerned that last year was a one-time revenue spike and the revenue will decrease in the next quarters. A possible scenario, given that the 8th edition was very popular and this year is full of Age of Sigmar which is nowhere near as popular as 40k. We don't know the list of releases for the whole year so anything can happen.

[discojames] 07/8/2018 14:57

These results look rather good to me, why is share price falling?

[cockerhoop] 07/8/2018 12:27

Trident5,

What value do you ascribe to the IP in your valuation model?

[cockerhoop] 07/8/2018 12:27

Sorry something weird seems to be going on causing multiple posts?

[cockerhoop] 07/8/2018 12:22

And the year before that!

[trident5] 07/8/2018 12:11

Pe of just over 20 and a yield of about 4% - seems about right to me.

[cockerhoop] 07/8/2018 11:21

'Seems about right'

Hmmm, so PH are suggesting that Revenue will be lower in 2020 than 2018 yet the company are doubling production capacity along with increased warehousing. Either lots of idle equipment or PH are perhaps wrong?

[trident5] 07/8/2018 11:09

Seems about right.

[robinnicolson] 07/8/2018 10:44

FWIW here are the latest Peel Hunt forecast figures:

FY 2019:
Turnover: £200.2m (unchanged)
EBITDA: £65.4m (unchanged)
Pre-tax profit: £58m (unchanged)
EPS (pence): 143.6 (unchanged)
Dividend (pence): 120p (unchanged)

FY 2020:
Turnover: £209.3m (unchanged)
EBITDA: £68.4m (unchanged)
Pre-tax profit: £61.0m (unchanged)
EPS: 151.1p (unchanged)
Dividend: 130p (unchanged)

GAW now on a forecast PE of 21.4, forecast dividend yield of 3.9% and a FCF yield of 5.0% (Sharescope data)

[dansaunders25] 02/8/2018 11:32

Reading through the remuneration report this year is interesting. Big changes to the director's salaries/bonuses are coming. Also interesting that they believe staff members are worth a 5% salary increase while the directors are getting 20%+ increases.

Looks like GAW will be more in line with other FTSE companies soon. Whether or not that is good or bad I am not sure.

[nod] 02/8/2018 11:27

It's clear to see why GAW is focused on the USA and has increased outlets at twice the rate this past year. On top of strong sales growth, the exchange rate gives a turbo boost to revenue and profits. Peel Hunt has long been predicting the bear case with currency headwinds i.e. a rising GBP. Given the turmoil of Brexit, I really cannot see any currency headwinds over the next year or two.

[cockerhoop] 02/8/2018 10:44

Agree I wouldn't expect GAW to lower prices for short term exchange rate fluctuations (although Charles Hall bizarrely believes this to be the case) but my point regarding US growth being worth more to the company than UK growth is valid and places GAW in a sweet spot currently.

Obviously future exchange rates could change - in both directions :-)

[nod] 02/8/2018 10:27

Gbp 80 to usd 130 is about right using long-term exchange rates. The weak pound distorts the real value of a dollar. It makes sense for GAW to price products on metrics other than recent exchange rates. The prices are about right using the Big Mac Index (0.58)

[cockerhoop] 02/8/2018 09:05

The beauty of the growth in US sales is that at current exchange rates they are much more profitable ie Kill Team starter set is £80 in the UK and retails at $130 in the US which converts back to approx £100. With US exhibiting the highest growth rates the US consumer doesn't appear to be particularly price sensitive.

[nod] 01/8/2018 23:41

Trade outlets had been growing at around 100 (2.6%) per year from 2015: 3700, 3800, to 3900 in 2017 and now a 5.1% increase to 4100 in 2017/18.Trade sales went up 57% over the year, with North America Trade sales up a whopping 79%. As a comparison North America own stores went up 32.7% very respectable but clearly NA Trade has been where the big growth remains.Asia Pacific had good growth of near 40% albeit from a much lower base, but is now showing great potential.GAW remains focused on these high growth regions:"We continue to believe there are great opportunities for growth, particularly in North America, Germany and Asia."Many new customers will be catching up with the hobby, buying the best products released last year.GAW has also been investing in US infrastructure to enable faster delivery of products:"North America - the upgrade of our warehousing systems and software at our site in Memphis, Tennessee "

[cockerhoop] 01/8/2018 15:18

David,

That ties in with my conversations with a store manager but will check on next visit.

Planning to attend the Agm, I imagine they'll be a few more familiar faces this year Possibly even a twitterati away day :-)

[davidosh] 01/8/2018 14:44

I think online purchases made in store are credited to the store as likely to have been encouraged or generated by the store manager so he then gets his commission.

Any of you coming to the Agm this year ?

The annual general meeting will be held at Willow Road, Lenton, Nottingham, NG7 2WS at 9:30 am on 19 September 2018.

[cockerhoop] 01/8/2018 14:14

No probs :-)

[cockerhoop] 01/8/2018 14:03

Charles Hall the PH analyst and only man covering GAW. I was referring to the final paragraph of Robow post 2579.