Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[nod] 25/9/2018 19:32

I thought the options were a deal Brexit or a no-deal Brexit? The dramatic papers being released each month are explaining the unimaginable existence for Brits following a no-deal Brexit.No Brexit (Remain) is not an option this year as it would require another Referendum resulting in the outcome of Remain. There would be plenty of time to take a financial position if the UK went down this path.

[cockerhoop] 25/9/2018 13:57

The death of the Chequers plan (if it was ever alive!!) has in my opinion increased the odds of a No Deal Brexit (£ falls) whilst simultaneously increasing the odds of No Brexit (£ rises).

As these 2 outcomes have opposing winds for GAW performance I am following with interest.

[woozle1] 25/9/2018 11:15

If we crash out with a deal, this will be a share to own: parity against € and $ will be great news and earnings at 300p. I just hope that GAW have enough inventory outside of the UK to take advantage.

My wife and I were wondering if it might be a good idea to take a long holiday in March!

w1

[daijavu] 25/9/2018 11:11

Just my opinion but I think it would be good to have cash available to buy all those shares that will be going cheap after Brexit.

[nod] 25/9/2018 10:48

I'm guessing that as the Brexit deadline draws closer and closer there is going to be a lot of stress and increased infighting in the UK government and opposition. This will most likely damage the Pound.

[cockerhoop] 25/9/2018 09:59

WCB,

Cheers for the detail. I'll be interested if they roll out the Dallas concept store in locations like TCR*


* Took me a while to realise what TCR was referring to :-)

[woozle1] 25/9/2018 07:24

16,370 maybe lots to you and me but it's chump change for most funds. It's not even £1m.
w1

[gersemi] 25/9/2018 07:07

Absolutely spectacular. Don't forget, always take some off the table when the going is good so that when things turn bad you can dispose of the remainder without liquidity friction

[nod] 25/9/2018 06:19

The market cap is now 1.3 Billion gbp

[nod] 25/9/2018 06:13

I didn't expect to see the Big 40 this year. What's encouraging is the big buys going through. One reported late in the day was 16,370 @ 4015p. That's a serious investment at such a high level. This stock is not being driven up by by the usual fad chasers who bought crypto currencies and cannabis producers.

[dsct] 24/9/2018 22:25

Re the Peel Hunt forecasts (post #2767)

So, basically a 5% profit increase each year, and at that rate, we'll be waiting until 2023/24 before reaching this years profit figure again ! lol

Last year we received a one-paragraph trading update on 19th Oct., followed by a more detailed one on 1st Dec. including revenue and profit figures, then the half-year results were released on 9th Jan. Hopefully we'll have a similar agenda (confirmation) this year.

At a casual glance it looks like the share price at the time of both those trading updates was 2000p ! It wasn't too long ago, someone commented on here I believe about the £1b market cap when the share price reached £31(?) !

[santr0] 24/9/2018 16:08

Wow, a new record high today! I guess the market does not believe the forecast since PH was usually significantly behind real sale numbers. PH prediction suggests that the sales would be almost flat from now on and new shops/factory/marketing would not result in any significant revenue increase. It is very unlikely as GW is currently in a very rapid expansion mode which until now worked really well so I really doubt that GW will suddenly stop expanding.

[ddubzy] 24/9/2018 14:58

Wow, staggering rise here in short time....The markets been sticking its fingers up at me for selling at 3100p. Well done holders.

[woozle1] 24/9/2018 14:31

The market either does not believe the forecast or thinks it should be rated over 27 times 2019 earnings.

w1

[robinnicolson] 24/9/2018 14:19

FWIW here is the latest Peel Hunt forecast, which includes their 2021 estimates for the first time

FY2019:
Turnover: Prev: £200.2m Current: £205.3m
EBITDA: Prev: £65.4m Current: £66.5m
Pre-tax profit: £58m (unchanged)
EPS (pence): 143.6 (unchanged)
Dividend (pence): 120 (unchanged)

FY2020:
Turnover: Prev: £209.3m Current: £215.2
EBITDA: Prev: £68.4m Current: £70.0m
Pre-tax profit: £61m (unchanged)
EPS (pence): 151.1 (unchanged)
Dividend (pence): 130 (unchanged)

FY2021:
Turnover: £225.7m
EBITDA: £73.0m
Pre-tax profit: £64m
EPS (pence): 158.6
Dividend (pence): 130

[shanklin] 24/9/2018 09:20

LOL, it was a pretty sh1t area, but that may not be reflected in the rent.

[cockerhoop] 24/9/2018 09:10

It's the biggest Warhammer store. I didn't realise you could get tertiary locations on Tottenham Court Rd :-)

[nod] 24/9/2018 08:41

From where I sit on the other side of this planet, it was always obvious that the EU has a vested interest in making an exit as horrible and painful as they possibly can. They will want to discourage any other nation from following the UK.The EU does have some valid points. When you leave a club you can't expect to continue to make use of the club's facilities and resources.

[daijavu] 24/9/2018 08:02

Nod. I fully expect that Brexit, along with Trump, will trigger a global downturn next year. The only question for me is how bad will it get. The UK is likely to be hit exceptionally hard unless someone knocks some sense into our Government because our supply chains for just about everything are almost totally dependent on maintaining the just in time system with the EU. That needs us to be in the EU market. Our food supply chain is particularly at risk. Brexit will disrupt that and lead to food shortages which are likely to result in social unrest like we have never seen before.
Our Home Secretary, Javid, has reassured us he has everything under control because he is planning to deploy the effing British army on the effing streets of England to keep the rabble??? under control after Brexit.

I just hope that GAW is strong enough to ride it out.

[robinnicolson] 23/9/2018 17:14

Games Workshop currently has three titles, including the number one position, in the top ten paid books in the 'Lifestyle and Home' section of the Apple iTunes store. I also counted seventeen GW titles in the top fifty...and all quite expensive compared to other titles in the iTunes store.

[nod] 21/9/2018 23:32

Our UK High Street hobby stores yield about 12% of our total revenue (not including UK online sales). So, we are not significantly exposed to the UK high street malaise, much of which is due to online shopping and high council rates. GAW has addressed both of those factors over the past five years. Like most, we are exposed to global downturns. Hopefully, we will not see another one of those for a decade or two.

[cockerhoop] 21/9/2018 17:37

Very true.........that's why I believe GAW has been driving recruitment and engagement very strongly over the last couple of years. So more players/collectors spending their disposable income on more compelling product in increasing geographies can boost overall sales.

[zoolook] 21/9/2018 16:45

People only have so much disposable income for non-essential purchases and a macro reduction in disposable income will (shirley) be reflected in a cyclical decline in sales - the pace of releases notwithstanding.