Future Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 15/4/2020 17:47

Elsewhere ... Future PLC, the difficult to search for magazine publisher and online storefront operator, is down 7 per cent or thereabouts following reports that Amazon’s has cut affiliate marketing rakes. Here’s CNBC, which broke the story:.....

[lomax99] 26/3/2020 11:43

Future proposes layoffsHttps://www.forbes.com/sites/lizlanier/2020/03/24/future-proposes-layoffs-of-key-staff-during-global-pandemic-despite-anticipated-profit-in-2020/#6c4627891ac8

[thewheeliedealer] 23/3/2020 23:26

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did 2 Twin Petes Investing Podcasts a few days ago in a Special Double-Bill and FUTR was one of the Stocks that we discussed. We also talked in depth about the current mess in the Markets and how we expect things could play out. Anyway, if you use Apple or Audioboom you can find them under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcasts 19A and 19B) and you can find them on Soundcloud at the links below.

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[74sjh] 23/3/2020 21:31

FCA has requested firms not to release results for the next two weeks until firms have a better idea of the impact from the virus.https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-requests-delay-forthcoming-announcement-preliminary-financial-accountsMakes me wonder if FUTR might end up revising their guidance or even retracting their 10 March announcement ??

[74sjh] 21/3/2020 21:32

Directors probably not buying because they will likely be in a close period while negotiations are going on regarding the TI deal - the listing rules prevent directors from buying until the deal completes (or falls apart!)

[blue meaning] 21/3/2020 20:43

I expect the H1 results in May will be superb and show the potential of what the company can do at full steam. The concern will be the outlook statement and effect all this disruption will have on the FY. If FUtR are still confident and maintain Fy guidance I will probably get back in

[squitter] 21/3/2020 20:32

Short-term is definitely worrying: measures are in place to reduce overheads in print for the next few months. Future's digital platforms are robust and the company is far more capable of responding to extreme market conditions than the bloated company it was 10 years ago... but an Italy-type lockdown scenario would have an notable impact. I'm an eternal optimist, so my opinion on the next set of financials should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

[blue meaning] 21/3/2020 20:02

@squitter
That’s interesting that you are knowledgable about the printing side - do you have insight on the disruption facing the industry? If this virus carries on then I had considered the possibility that magazines dont get printed for potentially weeks or worst case even months - might sound crazy now but seeing the TV reports coming out of Italy I was mindful that it’s a possibility even if the likelihood is still all guesswork. Italy is in total lock down - nobody can leave their houses so I wonder how their magazine businesses are faring?
Even now in the U.K. the only place consumers are able to buy a mag is a supermarket or a diehard corner shop as the rest of the high street is closed. Airports are closed. Theres no guarantee our postal system will stay functional for deliveries - Italys was apparently shut down in the northern areas and is now patchy at best.
My understanding is that not many of TI titles are available digitally so I wonder how their titles will be produced or distributed in the same way they were only a few weeks ago. How on earth do you value a company facing that?! TI short term revenues and forecasts are in my view an unknown at the moment. I am sure that in the long run as everything returns to normal, whenever that may be, then TI offers huge potential - particularly the specialised titles, but short term in might burn cash rather than produce it - perhaps that’s why FUTR mentioned their facilities headroom in the announcement?

[squitter] 21/3/2020 17:54

...I meant weekly, not bi-monthly.

[squitter] 21/3/2020 17:52

Interesting: I don't know much (or enough, at least) about the ecommerce side of the business, which I know is huge part of the model, my expertise is the publishing side, specifically print. TV Times, for example, is a bi-monthly mag and has something like 200,000 subscribers, which I assume are mostly older folk who are financially secure. So they won't be giving up their subscription in a hurry, especially in self-isolation.

I'm also thinking about the bigger picture: I'm sure a lot of investors like FUTR's business model, appreciate that the company had been well-managed in recent years and that this has translated into stellar results. For sure, coronavirus and a possible recession that follows will be a big test of FUTR, but there's long-term value at the current price.

I really hope this dips below 500, as long as you're not looking to make a quick buck, it'll be steal at that price.

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 22:06

@Alpha - yes that’s sounds possible but wouldnt you rather buy a tv through What-Hifi after reading the reviews which is more specialised? I thought the tv titles would probably be sold off anyway as the content is to wide and general interest for targeted e-commerce? But the wide audience makes general advertising attractive.

[alphabeta4] 20/3/2020 21:54

I’m not sure what a consumer might click to buy on TV times site

A television? 😄

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 21:53

Here’s that smartphone story I mentioned.



Biggest drop ever recorded and thats for Feb ie before the virus spread from China. March figures could be even worse. There is a perfect storm brewing here

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 20:05

@squitter - I’m a big fan of the FUTR model and have been a reader of what-hifi for years - the idea of reading a review and clicking to buy a gadget makes total sense to me. For the model to work and be profitable, the consumer needs to have the means to buy, the product needs to be available and someone needs to deliver it. Each of those stages has broken down and no one can confidently say how long it will last. The buying option from amazon has been withdrawn from the what-Hifi site now. I’m not sure what a consumer might click to buy on TV times site though I imagine general advertising revenues would be strong when the economic climate is good. But times are not good! Cnbc saying tonight that smartphone sales are down 38% yoy to Feb. That’s going to hit Mobile Nations hard and the projection must be for further declines as the virus takes a grip and the global economy tanks.
All guidance and projections are off. The big worry for me is the TI price which is far too high - no firm is worth today what it was 6 months ago but FUTR seem to be ploughing ahead just as the market for TIs products completely dries up and distribution networks collapse.
Gaming is a bright spot but not enough to hold up the rest so I’m not getting back in to the stock until there is evidence that the virus is under control. It could be way less than 500p!

[squitter] 20/3/2020 18:56

@bluemeaning Really hope you're right (I'm lookong for a more attractive entry point for FUTR) but I'm a lot more optimistic of FUTR's future prospects than you. Have you seen the subscriber numbers of TV Times alone? Just 1 of dozens of titles Future's getting in this deal. Future's already put measures in place to mitigate coronavirus losses in its magazine sector, and think a lot of investors will be willing to put some prospective money into this company at this price. I don't anticipate significant impact from coronavirus in its next set of results.

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 15:10

I’ve been a holder of FUTR for years but have taken the opportunity to sell into this mornings rise for a number of reasons in the RNS.
Firstly (and what I had attributed this weeks general weakness to) is the price they are paying for TI which now looks eyewateringly expensive compared to 6 months ago. Also the 3 choicest titles that would have provided the best savings for cross selling and the best opportunities for e-commerce have to be removed from the deal yet the price is still confirmed today at 120m. In today’s environment, maybe it’s worth half that? Who knows! Then there is the integration risk which is a challenge at the best of times but in a situation where the country is facing lockdown may prove insurmountable. TI could quickly become a huge millstone in an environment where cash is king.
Secondly guidance has been reaffirmed for H1 but not much said about FY today other than cost cutting measures have been introduced suggesting that clouds are gathering. WH Smith guidance released on 12 March was abysmal and surely must have read through to magazine sales for both TI and FUTR. On the bright side sales from grocers are offsetting but the extent is opaque.
Thirdly economists are now predicting recession so consumers will tighten their belts considerably - that means cancelling subscriptions and luxuries such as electrical goods. Equally corporates are slashing advertising as seen by M&S RNS today which makes dire reading.
Fourthly if corona continues then how can FUTR produce a meaningful sports mag if there are no fixtures to cover or review films if the cinemas are shut etc etc. Equally how can e-commerce revenues grow if amazon remains closed to “non essential goods” ie pretty much everything that FUTR offers. Amazon apparently already has corona in its warehouses. Even if you did buy, there may soon be no one available to deliver it for you. My guess is H2 will be very bleak indeed.
Finally, in the absence of specific news, the shares only seem to get support recently on a day when shorters decide to trim but they weren’t exactly clambering to close yesterday until shares reached 5. Meanwhile another new short position has been disclosed by Capeview. That suggests the bottom could perhaps be even lower than 500p.
All in all I’m amazed the market has taken the price as high as it has today and was happy to sell out at 800p to wait on the sidelines for possible reentry sub 500p. Only my thoughts and knowing my luck they will be back at 1500p next week!! As ever DYOR.
BM

[alphabeta4] 20/3/2020 08:37

Interesting RNS - Ameriprise Financial Inc - a giant USA fund (ranked 252 in the Forbes 500 list ) has taken a 5% holding - circa 5m shares -in the company from a zero holding before. Can’t record anybody selling though.
____

Nice, albeit this must have done over a number of days as likewise the volume wouldn't have been there. They must have a massive profit on their last lot. Given fund size hopefully potential for more should we see any more short attempts.

On a separate matter, trying hard not to mention my post 2268 :)

[napoleon 14th] 20/3/2020 08:30

Not surprised at this bounce but still not sorry I sold higher up!
Not convinced the market in general is yet ready for the recovery that will follow the falls. Covid 19 not beaten yet by a long chalk.

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 08:12

+30% blimey!

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 07:32

Don't think the directors could be accused of foresight re virus. If they had they would have sold a lot more!

[albert zog] 20/3/2020 07:26

Why is this company pumping out so many updates ? Seem obsessed by the share price. Why did the Directors sell shares at 1400p. Whole thing stinks

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 07:16

Interesting share price went up 20% in last two hours yesterday, someone got wind of RNS?