Future Share Discussion Threads

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 21:53

Here’s that smartphone story I mentioned. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-smartphone-market-had-the-largest-fall-ever-in-february.html Biggest drop ever recorded and thats for Feb ie before the virus spread from China. March figures could be even worse. There is a perfect storm brewing here

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 20:05

@squitter - I’m a big fan of the FUTR model and have been a reader of what-hifi for years - the idea of reading a review and clicking to buy a gadget makes total sense to me. For the model to work and be profitable, the consumer needs to have the means to buy, the product needs to be available and someone needs to deliver it. Each of those stages has broken down and no one can confidently say how long it will last. The buying option from amazon has been withdrawn from the what-Hifi site now. I’m not sure what a consumer might click to buy on TV times site though I imagine general advertising revenues would be strong when the economic climate is good. But times are not good! Cnbc saying tonight that smartphone sales are down 38% yoy to Feb. That’s going to hit Mobile Nations hard and the projection must be for further declines as the virus takes a grip and the global economy tanks. All guidance and projections are off. The big worry for me is the TI price which is far too high - no firm is worth today what it was 6 months ago but FUTR seem to be ploughing ahead just as the market for TIs products completely dries up and distribution networks collapse. Gaming is a bright spot but not enough to hold up the rest so I’m not getting back in to the stock until there is evidence that the virus is under control. It could be way less than 500p!

[squitter] 20/3/2020 18:56

@bluemeaning Really hope you're right (I'm lookong for a more attractive entry point for FUTR) but I'm a lot more optimistic of FUTR's future prospects than you. Have you seen the subscriber numbers of TV Times alone? Just 1 of dozens of titles Future's getting in this deal. Future's already put measures in place to mitigate coronavirus losses in its magazine sector, and think a lot of investors will be willing to put some prospective money into this company at this price. I don't anticipate significant impact from coronavirus in its next set of results.

[blue meaning] 20/3/2020 15:10

I’ve been a holder of FUTR for years but have taken the opportunity to sell into this mornings rise for a number of reasons in the RNS. Firstly (and what I had attributed this weeks general weakness to) is the price they are paying for TI which now looks eyewateringly expensive compared to 6 months ago. Also the 3 choicest titles that would have provided the best savings for cross selling and the best opportunities for e-commerce have to be removed from the deal yet the price is still confirmed today at 120m. In today’s environment, maybe it’s worth half that? Who knows! Then there is the integration risk which is a challenge at the best of times but in a situation where the country is facing lockdown may prove insurmountable. TI could quickly become a huge millstone in an environment where cash is king. Secondly guidance has been reaffirmed for H1 but not much said about FY today other than cost cutting measures have been introduced suggesting that clouds are gathering. WH Smith guidance released on 12 March was abysmal and surely must have read through to magazine sales for both TI and FUTR. On the bright side sales from grocers are offsetting but the extent is opaque. Thirdly economists are now predicting recession so consumers will tighten their belts considerably - that means cancelling subscriptions and luxuries such as electrical goods. Equally corporates are slashing advertising as seen by M&S RNS today which makes dire reading. Fourthly if corona continues then how can FUTR produce a meaningful sports mag if there are no fixtures to cover or review films if the cinemas are shut etc etc. Equally how can e-commerce revenues grow if amazon remains closed to “non essential goods” ie pretty much everything that FUTR offers. Amazon apparently already has corona in its warehouses. Even if you did buy, there may soon be no one available to deliver it for you. My guess is H2 will be very bleak indeed. Finally, in the absence of specific news, the shares only seem to get support recently on a day when shorters decide to trim but they weren’t exactly clambering to close yesterday until shares reached 5. Meanwhile another new short position has been disclosed by Capeview. That suggests the bottom could perhaps be even lower than 500p. All in all I’m amazed the market has taken the price as high as it has today and was happy to sell out at 800p to wait on the sidelines for possible reentry sub 500p. Only my thoughts and knowing my luck they will be back at 1500p next week!! As ever DYOR. BM

[alphabeta4] 20/3/2020 08:37

Interesting RNS - Ameriprise Financial Inc - a giant USA fund (ranked 252 in the Forbes 500 list ) has taken a 5% holding - circa 5m shares -in the company from a zero holding before. Can’t record anybody selling though. ____ Nice, albeit this must have done over a number of days as likewise the volume wouldn't have been there. They must have a massive profit on their last lot. Given fund size hopefully potential for more should we see any more short attempts. On a separate matter, trying hard not to mention my post 2268 :)

[napoleon 14th] 20/3/2020 08:30

Not surprised at this bounce but still not sorry I sold higher up! Not convinced the market in general is yet ready for the recovery that will follow the falls. Covid 19 not beaten yet by a long chalk.

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 08:12

+30% blimey!

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 07:32

Don't think the directors could be accused of foresight re virus. If they had they would have sold a lot more!

[albert zog] 20/3/2020 07:26

Why is this company pumping out so many updates ? Seem obsessed by the share price. Why did the Directors sell shares at 1400p. Whole thing stinks

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 07:16

Interesting share price went up 20% in last two hours yesterday, someone got wind of RNS?

[ayl30] 20/3/2020 07:15

Good rns today, no material change to expectations

[ihatemms] 19/3/2020 19:50

Interesting RNS - Ameriprise Financial Inc - a giant USA fund (ranked 252 in the Forbes 500 list ) has taken a 5% holding - circa 5m shares -in the company from a zero holding before. Can’t record anybody selling though.

[alphabeta4] 19/3/2020 15:04

From the data out there the shorts are closing so could be a last 'hoorah'. https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BYZN9041/ The volume is also pretty low for such large moves. Level 2 has tended to be unbalanced but that has just changed in the last few minutes. Perhaps the shorters used the general market conditions with the lack of liquidity to push it for all they could. Even Matt Earl said he thought Futr was a decent company just that it got overpriced. Looks done IMHO so added some I'd top sliced at 1400.

[alphabeta4] 19/3/2020 14:31

Ok - this is a bit nuts now. Fallen to a fwd of 6. RCH is on 5.75 (pension adjusted) but future had a far more digital existing business (which tend to trend on higher ratings - usually at least 12). Anyone able to shed any light? No obvious short notes I can see?

[blondeamon] 19/3/2020 14:27

500p gone...

[malcolmmm] 19/3/2020 00:28

Week of March 16 The ongoing coronavirus pandemic continues to cause widespread effects throughout the sports world. The cancellation of March Madness registers an enormous hit on the entire sports betting industry. It also appears it will be months, not weeks, before US sports return to action. Follow the most recent legislative happenings on our sports betting bill tracker as 2020 sessions heat up. Keep an eye on our Twitter feed for updates throughout the week, and don’t forget about the weekly LSR podcast either.

[sabyro] 18/3/2020 15:43

online gaming spike shows in GamesRadar traffic stats for FUTR. 15.43m Mar-20 Vs 7.84m Mar-19 (+96.7).

[74sjh] 18/3/2020 01:14

Plenty of news on Tencent which posted strong earnings overnight showing huge surge in online gaming since the start of the outbreak - millions of new gamers using their platform. Hopefully some read through for FUTR.

[74sjh] 16/3/2020 21:59

How soon would FUTR be expected to get terms of a new transaction (minus the 3 titles) together and agreed? I'd like to see something announced in the next day or so at the latest. With directors out of their close period hopefully they might buy some shares as well or better still provide an update on current trading/web traffic to add some flesh to the no impact statement from last week.

[ihatemms] 16/3/2020 18:48

Shorters starting to close- Luxor buying back .45% or circa 450k shares.

[rampmeister] 16/3/2020 15:49

Missed out on the sub 700p but topped up at 737p. Not convinced this has bottomed but somewhere near. RM

[ihatemms] 16/3/2020 08:00

Correct and even with the 3 titles there's room for negotiation.

[alphabeta4] 16/3/2020 08:00

Correct by looks of it unless Future can suggest something else (sale of titles most likely).