Future Share Discussion Threads

[blue meaning] 04/2/2020 13:23

Agree that a specific rebuttal RNS could be counter productive as it draws attention to the report which many may not have read nor previously intended to read. Increased IR effort is what’s required instead.
Agree with MOG - the whole point is to take declining print titles, put them on the e-commerce platform and monetise them. Comparing declining revenues from historical print to projected increased digital revenues is apples and pears which is where shadow fall down IMV. A bit like Ocado which also attracts polarising views - is it a grocer or high tech IT?

[74sjh] 04/2/2020 11:44

The circumstances where a company must make an RNS are described in the DTRs and MAD. They seem to be generally related to timeliness of accounts reporting and disclosure of inside info. As the shadow report is a view based piece and presumably based on public data, then, however frustrating it may be, a response via RNS may not be appropriate and potentially a misuse of the channel? My basic understanding from sifting through the dtrs is that companies are only required to respond to speculation via rns if the content meets the definitions of inside info, is actually true and is causing the price to move. Therefore, in an way, the lack of rns could be viewed as reassuring because the company doesn't believe any of shadows content to be true. But best DYOR and give the dtrs and MaD a read yourselves if you can stomach it!That said, shadows report is likely to be the main topic of conversation at the investor day tomorrow and one would hope management is armed to the teeth to deal with questions on it. Perhaps there will be a presentation to investors that deals with shadows claims which could be put on FUTRs website for all to see. The CEO could also do a Q&A or press interviews to set the record straight. The IR dept and advisors really ought to be going into overdrive to sort this out but so far the response does seem a bit underwhelming.On another point, there have been no TR1s from major investors - I think FUTRs top 10 shareholders own about 50% of the company (according to shadows report) so any sell down by them might have to be disclosed. That suggests to me that they are riding this one out so far.

[sweenoid] 04/2/2020 11:08

Mog, Absolutely 100% correct and that’s why Future has been top of my watchlist for a month or so.

You vocalise the response that management should be forcefully reiterating!!!
S

[mog] 04/2/2020 10:59

I haven't read the Shadowfall report. This is from The Times link in Sweenoid's post:

Shadowfall says that some of the businesses bought “have long histories of declining revenue and profit and all too frequent reorganisation costs. We find it difficult to reconcile the performance of assets as reported by Future compared to the performance reported by the sellers of the same assets.”

Isn't that the whole point of Future's strategy and the reason for their success? They buy under-performing assets and monetise them by putting them on Future's on-line platform.

[74sjh] 04/2/2020 08:52

Some comment on FT Alphaville Marketsnotlive with broker report extracts.Numis upgrade and new PT of 1990. Panmure Gordon upgrade and new PT of 2092. The brokers really ought to have addressed the shadow report and it's not clear from the extracts whether they have or not

[sweenoid] 04/2/2020 07:44

Edited Here is this mornings Times ‘take’ on events



The Times also has a personal profile of the CEO , for some reason it won’t let me copy it, an interesting piece? not quite sure what to make of it, but you will need to read it to understand what that comment means?


I guess with the AGM tomorrow and then the ‘Capital Markets day’ on Thursday things should be clearer.

The crux question for investors is obviously related to the core organic growth and what is happening to it.

I despise Earl and his operation, however the questions he asks have to be answered. Gang- banging companies in cahoots with shorting ‘allies’ has to be an odious practice that surely should be regulated?
S

[ihatemms] 03/2/2020 18:20

No it’s the agm on The 5th.

[squintyflinty1] 03/2/2020 17:19

Is futr announcing the interim results on 5th Feb?

[nobilis] 03/2/2020 11:34

RCH does indeed look spelendid, expecting a big move there ahead of 24.feb
RCH - A presentation to analysts and institutional investors will be held on 24 February 2020.

In addition to reviewing the full-year results, Jim Mullen, Chief Executive, and Simon Fuller, Chief Financial Officer, will be joined by a number of the Company's senior management team to provide an update on the strategic plans for long-term value creation. The Group's growth strategy will ensure that through capturing customer insight and data Reach continues to build an intelligent and relevant content business for the long term, ensuring a sustainable future for its trusted brands.

[napoleon 14th] 03/2/2020 11:24

bm - I agree entirely. I love the smell of burnt witches, errrrr, shorters.

Good one, FDH.
Too much progress in FUTR for it to fall unless "skidded" by the Sunday drivers.

I quote a "rebelious" friend of mine, go figureitout! whose maths look good:
"FUTR - If 2020 eps is going to be materially ahead of forecasts of 56.7p then surely we can safely suggest that the current 2022 forecast of 79p could be upgraded by another 10%? taking it to 87p. Current price 1280p making a forward 2022 PE of 15?
No one is going to convince me that Future is expensive."

BTW, I have been buying RCH, hoping for another FUTR in the making on a P/E of <4!
Big pension deficit, I admit, due in large part to absurd real interest rates like many others, but they cut that by c.12% out of ebitda last year.
Tipped in the current issue of SCSW.
Rinse and repeat.
DYOR, WTFDIK & NAI as usual...

[fardistanthills] 03/2/2020 10:34

Well done Nap. It was pretty obvious from what Zillah said during the Full Year results video late last year that FUTR are still doing tremendously well. In it she stressed how well MobileNation has performed since its acquisition - last March I think - bringing in an additional tech audience of some 40m. And of course just to confirm how well MoNa has been doing they decided to bring forward the earnout payments because they had been achieved six months ahead of schedule, allowing them to get the MoNa titles fully onto FUTR's Vanilla etc platform - in good time for peak Black Friday trading. Interesting to see you topping up on GAN - my second biggest holding, after FUTR. So lots of fingers crossed, not least yours and mine!

[blue meaning] 03/2/2020 10:08

Having read through Shadows report over the weekend, it did make for an interesting piece and they have clearly done a lot of digging. However the overall sense was that it was too backward looking to formulate a shorting strategy on with some of their gripes dating back to issues that took place five years ago. Markets are forward looking and all indicators suggest that the company is making excellent progress in integrating titles onto their e-commerce platform. With possible disposals of the TV titles, further new acquisitions quite likely and indications of strong HY results to come, going short doesn’t make much sense to me.

[cheshire pete] 03/2/2020 09:45

ihatemms: Remember Coltrane Asset management - have 1.5 million shares to buy back - should send this vertical over the next few days.

Less than 400,000 shares traded so far and up 120p, ref. HL site.

[alphabeta4] 03/2/2020 08:23

Check last year - they did the same. Also, once over 10% above market expectations they have to do that anyway as it is deemed material information that the market needs to be informed about.

Bit surprised they've managed to beat so early again.

[bookbroker] 03/2/2020 08:16

Why put out a four month statement, is it to boost confidence after Friday, or is this normal timing!

[sweenoid] 03/2/2020 08:03

I wouldn’t write off Coltrane! I hate their ‘ethos’ but unlike most PI’s they have balls of steel :-( and are not easily panicked.

[ramridge] 03/2/2020 07:58

Fascinating! Will FUTR burn the bloodsuckers? I hope they do.

[ihatemms] 03/2/2020 07:45

Remember Coltrane Asset management - have 1.5 million shares to buy back - should send this vertical over the next few days.

[blue meaning] 03/2/2020 07:45

Pleasing to see the update - the second materially higher disclosure for the FY suggests we are at least 20% up on the original estimates already. Also sensible that no reference to the short attack was made - there is no regulatory requirement to do so. Perhaps the house brokers will deal with that in some fresh research, which combined with the upcoming AGM and Capital Markets day should translate into some strong gains over the next few days.

[biteherbutt] 03/2/2020 07:39

lol

who are the coltranes