Future Share Discussion Threads

[squitter] 05/2/2020 19:24

Based on previous form (the Stockviews debacle), an inside view of Future and some blind optimism. All very scientific really, as sound reasons for staying in as many PIs had for cashing out since Friday. I think if you're happy to hold for a few months, this stock will return to the level it was at a week ago.

[davr0s] 05/2/2020 18:00

Really based on what? It's only just breaking trend for my style of trading

[squitter] 05/2/2020 17:59

Bottoming out now, I reckon. Picked up some more at a bargain price. This will be 30% up from this level by April/May.

[napoleon 14th] 05/2/2020 17:49

ihatemms - absolulement!
And I hate shorters as well. Creating a false market should be verbotten...

[thefartingcommie] 05/2/2020 11:52

re..Everyone moving into RCH and MPAC..........PLUS.....SFOR

definate rotation going on here......

[alphabeta4] 05/2/2020 11:24

FWIW I've bought back some I sold at 1400 - looks like it's just had the capitulation, support at c1170? IMO I think it represents a good risk:reward even as a trade. LV2 also stabilising.

[ramridge] 05/2/2020 11:05

I am watching this stock very closely. A few observations since Shadowfall’s publication. All IMO.
- In line with previous similar attacks, the share price will continue to drop no matter how robust or justified the rebuttals are. Logic takes the back seat. Irrational behaviour is firmly in the driving seat.

- I have studied the report. I have also read Graham Neary’s take (on stockopedia). Graham is one of the best level headed analysts I have come across. I agree with him. Shadowfall is presenting us a laundry list, but no ‘smoking gun’ as Graham said.

- Which means to me that unlike the previous attacks, the share price will drop significantly but will not bump along at the bottom. It will recover.

- My view is that the share price will drop another 10% - 20% before it stabilises and starts to recover. It hasn’t yet breached the 200EMA. I have pencilled in 1100p as my entry point, provided there is evidence of green shoots.

[middlesboroughfc] 05/2/2020 11:05

Everyone moving into RCH and MPAC

[napoleon 14th] 05/2/2020 10:57

Quite so, squintyflinty15 Feb '20 - 10:42 - 2158 of 2159

Stockview's self-serving attack sent FUTR from £12 to £9, approx 25%.
Shadowfall's same has, so far, sent FUTR fom £15 to £12, approx 20%.
So in the intervening 6 months FUTR recovered from £9 and went over £15; up 66%.
If Shadowfall's attack has the same sequel, FUTR should be £20 by mid-year......?

Bullish statistics aside - these are only stats, after all - all the broker note are pointing to c. £20.
Interesting circumstances!
Obviously this meteoric rise can't go on for ever - FUTR's market is not infinite - so the best profit should be when? Difficult to judge where the peak is, but I'm sticking with it this time, just like last time.
TI Group has yet to be incorporated and bring a good set of assets to be revived.

Contact with investors this week should include a deliberated disclaimer of Shadowfall's piece. Poise!

Directors' share sell. - Didn't hear any objections when that share scheme was given at a fraction of this price. So they made a huge success of FUTR, share price at multiples of the grant price, and took the profit once they had done part 1 of the job. I'm looking forward to part 2!
Those simpletons looking for talent to use without paying are quite rightly left hungry...

I won't pretend I'm impervious to the fall to £12; it has made quite a dent.
Shorting should not exist, but it does... It won't alter my view of this share until there are REAL negatives directly related to FUTR. Apart from the superficial & self-serving shorters, I haven't heard any yet.

[squintyflinty1] 05/2/2020 10:42

Then why have other brokers increased their price target??????

[bigbigdave] 05/2/2020 10:30

Questor: our most successful stock comes under attack. What should we do in response?

Conclude SELL

[lomax99] 05/2/2020 10:30

Questor: our most successful stock comes under attack. What should we do in response?

Shares in Future, the publisher, have gained 273pc since our tip but a ‘short‑seller’ says they are overvalued

Someone is not impressed by Questor’s most successful stock tip of recent years. Future, the magazine publisher whose shares have gained 273pc since we recommended them two years ago, has attracted the attention of a “short-seller”.

ShadowFall, a London-based investment firm, has declared itself to be “short” of Future’s stock, which means it will profit to the extent that the company’s share price falls.

It has published a lengthy document that sets out why it thinks Future does not deserve a stock market value of £1.5bn, the figure it had reached before ShadowFall went public with its dossier.

The document is couched in somewhat technical language so Questor asked its author, Matt Earl, ShadowFall’s managing partner, to explain his misgivings about Future.

“The company has grown by making a lot of acquisitions and it has tended to pay 1.2-1.9 times the sales of the businesses it has acquired,” he said. “But shares in Future have been trading at about seven times sales.”

The only way the latter valuation can be justified, he said, is if the disparate parts can be melded together into a growing, cash-generative business. “We think the market is pricing in tremendous optimism about this,” Mr Earl added.

He said his research indicated that what he called one of Future’s “pricier”; acquisitions, Mobile Nations, had suffered a 50pc fall in website traffic over the course of a year, while the value of another, Purch, had been written down by about £40m after its acquisition.

“It sounds like Future has overpaid for Purch. This calls into question its acquisition-based strategy,” Mr Earl said.

He also questioned Future’s reported 11pc in organic growth for 2019 and described sales by executives of their own stock after they had asked shareholders to fund an acquisition as “a slap in the face” for investors. “Future’s management have largely cashed in,” he said.

“The firm just keeps buying more and more businesses and in my experience this approach never stands the test of time – you rely on the next acquisition to sustain growth and meanwhile you need to make a success of the previous ones.”

Future declined to comment on the allegations.

However, Richard Power of Octopus Investments, whose holding in Future prompted our original tip, said he was sticking with the shares.

“We have taken some profits over the past six months as we need to manage the size of the holding,” he told this column. “However, it remains a top holding. We were delighted with the brief trading update on Monday. The management have a strong track record of upgrades following acquisitions.”

But we are going to take a safety-first approach and bank the very handsome profit we have made on this stock.

We have the highest regard for Mr Power’s skills as a fund manager and we are not saying he is wrong about Future; ultimately it is a matter of opinion and interpretation.

But he is a human being and therefore bound to see the positive side to something he has committed to and be disinclined to accept the analysis of a short-seller that has a financial interest of its own.

Overall our feeling is that ShadowFall’s attack, whether justified or not, will linger in investors’ memories and that the share price will therefore struggle to make meaningful progress from here. And banking so large a profit can hardly be imprudent.

We advise readers to watch this one from the sidelines and sell.

Questor says: sell

[ihatemms] 05/2/2020 10:26

Some director buys would also be useful.

[squintyflinty1] 05/2/2020 09:40

The shadowfall report HAS to be addressed in the AGM. The report has done a lot of damage and has decimated the share price.The report was definately backward looking and had many pitfalls.Other brokers have increased their price target though ,and seem to discard the shadowfall report. Pi's are very nervous though and their fears should be allayed by management.

[sweenoid] 05/2/2020 08:43

Is anyone going to the AGM?

If so please report back, and it would be useful if you ask the obvious questions!
S

[mog] 04/2/2020 16:22

I've added some as well, also hoping management will reassure over the next couple of days.

[cheshire pete] 04/2/2020 16:01

Reading the posts since the Shadowfall report, not convinced that they understand the FUTR business and how they make money.

[lomax99] 04/2/2020 15:57

Suspect they are working in cahoots...Welcome aboard Sweenoid.

[74sjh] 04/2/2020 15:25

The latest FCA data suggests that Coltrane increased their short last Friday from 1.55% to 1.69% which if they had executed during the afternoon could have accounted for a reasonable percentage of the total volume. No sign of Shadowfall on the list so their position must be too small and under the disclosable threshold? If they were that confident in their analysis surely they would have taken a position big enough to require a disclosure? 0.5% is only roughly 500,000 shares after all.https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions

[squintyflinty1] 04/2/2020 14:11

In addition two brokers have lifted their price targets to approx £20.

[squintyflinty1] 04/2/2020 14:03

Yesterdays gains have been wiped out today.Still as PEEL HUNT points out ,now is a good entry point.Lat week the share was over £15.

[lomax99] 04/2/2020 13:39

Peel Hunt: Future at attractive entry point

Media group Future (FUTR) may have come under pressure from short-seller Shadowfall but Peel Hunt says it is ‘materially ahead’ for 2020.

Analyst Jessica Pok retained her ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £19.75 on the stock, which has come under attack from Shadowfall, which criticised the group as ‘a collection of generally low quality, often distinct and shrinking assets’ and accused Future of overstating its revenue growth.

However, a subsequent trading update has buoyed the shares, which rose 4.1% to £13.32 yesterday. An update for the first four months of the year was ‘materially ahead of market expectations’ according to Pok, who is looking to increase earnings per share forecasts by 10%.

‘Future’s share price has been weak recently; we believe this is an excellent entry point to a stock which is set to deliver an earnings per share compound annual growth rate of over 30% for the next three years,’ she said.