Future Share Discussion Threads

[sweenoid] 19/2/2020 16:40

That 107,000 UT trade at close at 1390p bodes well :-)
We open in the morning at that level

The almost complete absence of a Kovid-19 ‘effect’ for Future makes it very attractive investment at present
S

[shammytime] 19/2/2020 16:26

We are on course to return to 1500 this month on the back of that news

[alphabeta4] 19/2/2020 16:23

From today's The Times (dead tree edition). Biggest movers:
Future +4.2% 'Hires a couple of digital advertising veterans to accelerate online growth'.
Somehow missed this. Wasn't an RNS.

[brummy_git] 19/2/2020 15:19

Just posted some comparative KPIs and valuation multiples on Twitter wrt the media/consultant industry, including FUTR

[fardistanthills] 18/2/2020 14:38

Agreed but as they say, many a mickle makes a muckle

[squitter] 18/2/2020 11:55

FFT Turkey's just a magazine licensee, right? One of dozens of licensees for many different brands Future has all over the world. It's good news, for sure, but not a new revenue stream in anywhere near the same league as one of the big brands in the TI acquisition, for example.

[napoleon 14th] 18/2/2020 11:33

Rinse and repeat!- heading quietly back to £15
& sod Shareview, Shadowfall or whatever the spivs are called.

Interesting news about Turkey. Sure that's a fertile area for FUTR.
More haste, less speed, but the European market is vast.
Footy fans in 10s of millions and easier languages than Turkish to handle/translate.

I keep telling myself I'm overweight here, but despite the spiv attacks I can't find a good reason to sell some. I suspect a return to £15 will be a good time.
That is unless the news about TI Group's confirmed purchase mid-March arrives.

[alphabeta4] 18/2/2020 09:01

Not quite the same but one of the capital markets day slides was on taking existing material and converting it to new languages.

[sweenoid] 18/2/2020 07:43

Yep, some nice news, what I like is that it is expanding the revenue stream outside of its present geographical boundaries. There is massive appetite for ‘specialised interest’ news, obviously the biggest market is the US where Future has a large and growing profile and the U.K. , but all of Europe and Asia are fertile grounds for expansion. A presence in India where hundreds of millions have smartphones should be a target too?
S

[ihatemms] 17/2/2020 19:54

Yet another income stream :-)

Future plc today announces the launch of FourFourTwo Turkey
FourFourTwo Turkey entered the market in 2006, and will continue its path with a new partner – Lobby Lobos Advertising
17th February 2020​ – ​Future plc,​ ​ T​ he world's largest English-speaking football magazine, FourFourTwo​, has expanded with the exciting arrival of its new partner in Turkey: Lobby Lobos.
AfterinitiallyenteringtheTurkishmarketin2006,F​ FT​hasbeenfollowedwithadmiration ever since, becoming a leader of the football print media sector in Turkey.
Future Plc has a reputation for thinking ahead of its competitors and adapting in the digital world – and as such, they have paved the way for a revamped FourFourTwo Turkey to develop the ​FFT​ brand in a football-obsessed nation of 83 million people. Together, Future and Lobby Lobos Advertising will integrate e-commerce solutions and establish dialogue between teams.
Can Elmas, the new editor-in-chief, said: “FourFourTwo Turkey has always been the magazine everybody considered to be a guiding light. But in the same way that other football titles went through, it faced significant problems during the digitisation process. We have since agreed to a new economic model that will be an example for all in the new era of FFT Turkey and Future Plc. In a world that is becoming more and more digital, we will lead our competitors again.”
FFT Turkey​ aims to become the first audio-magazine of Turkey, too, working to break down the media's cold walls and establishing a new relationship with football fans. They have created the ‘FourFourTwo Reserve Team’, which aims to bring new sports journalists and writers aged 18-24 into the industry and showcase their work to a wider audience.
FFT-branded products and other e-commerce solutions are in the pipeline to help the brand grow, but FourFourTwo Turkey’s fundamental aim is to make a positive contribution to football journalism by following ​FFT’203; s proud and respected lead in Britain.

[sweenoid] 14/2/2020 16:50

Not sure if this date is known, but it appears the CMA ( competition and mergers authority) after a period of deliberation and discussion, will announce their decision on the acquisition of TI by Future on the 16th of March



This ‘merger’ is strategic and massively important for Future
S

[lomax99] 12/2/2020 13:06

IC today:Future explains acquisition strategyShares in publisher Future (FUTR) soared by more than 200 per cent last year. However, since being tipped into decline on the back of bearish research from short-seller ShadowFall Research, the group's market value has yet to recover, despite issuing improved trading guidance for 2020 and hosting a well-attended capital markets event. executive, Zillah Byng-Thorne, told us that the group does not comment on anyone's research, "good or bad". Yet while it has not responded to the contents of ShadowFall's report, Future's capital markets presentation explored areas including "execution strategy", "organic growth through audience" and the "acquisition playbook".ShadowFall's report had said that it had been "left with the impression that Future is little more than a collection of generally low quality, often distinct and shrinking assets". Among other topics, the hedge fund questioned the 11 per cent organic growth figure stated by Future for 2019, and the quality of the businesses that Future has acquired. It says that Future appears to be "a monumental example of shareholder exuberance".The media group broke down the 11 per cent organic growth figure, noting that total revenue landed at £222m in 2019, and after subtracting the impact of acquisitions and a foreign-exchange boost, organic revenues were £121m, up from £109m. The group defines organic growth as year-on-year growth for its like-for-like portfolio of brands. It excludes any acquisitions made during the prior two-year period, but includes closed titles.ShadowFall also argued that some of Future's acquired assets had "long histories of declining revenue and profit and all too frequent reorganisation costs", using Future's most costly acquisition to date, TI Media, as an example. Ms Byng-Thorne noted that TI Media is a predominantly magazine-led business today, with about 85 per cent of revenues coming from magazine and about 15 per cent coming from online opportunities. "For us, that's where the significant and material opportunity lies" – while TI has a well-managed magazine portfolio, it does not "have a scalable digital platform". Future also sees an opportunity to improve TI's digital revenues through its in-market team in the US.Ms Byng-Thorne and Future's chief financial officer, Penny Ladkin-Brand, each bought around £100,000 of shares the day after the capital markets event, which followed a separate share purchase in early December.The chief executive said that buying shares in the group represented "remarkably good value" at the current price, which "undervalues the growth in the business". However, these deals follow on from £43.7m in share sales by management members last November after the exercise of options, including a £14.6m sale by Ms Byng-Thorne.Ms Byng-Thorne noted that she and Ms Ladkin-Brand were net purchasers in Future rather than sellers up until that point, based upon shares they had bought themselves as opposed to shares they had been awarded. IC ViewAt 1,212p, Future's shares still command a forward price/earnings multiple of 19, based on Berenberg's adjusted EPS estimate for 2020 (65.1p). Ms Byng-Thorne said she "fundamentally believe[s] that cash is an underrated metric". She noted that Future has doubled adjusted cash profits "pretty much every year, at a minimum" over the last four years and cash flows have "pretty much followed suit". Hold.

[albert zog] 12/2/2020 11:24

This company sprays around equity like confetti at a Mormons wedding

What broker isn’t going to blow smoke up their corporate butt ?

Fees from deals and placing are the only thing which pay .... they all want a piece of it

[lomax99] 12/2/2020 06:06

Future has "multiple years of revenue and profit growth" ahead, says Peel HuntHedge fund ShadowFall recently accused the publisher of making a series of poor-quality acquisitions that had masked a weak organic growth rateFuture PLC (LON:FUTR), the FTSE 250 online publisher in the cross-hairs of the short-sellers, provided an "encouraging" rebuttal to its detractors at a strategy update last week, according to City broker Peel Hunt.Its analysts said the company "gave colour" on its strategy of delivering strong organic growth supplemented by acquisitions.READ: Future says full year to be "materially ahead" of expectations"We left feeling encouraged that Future's platform is getting stronger, which will support the delivery of multiple years of revenue and profit growth," they added.Peel Hunt's media team emerged from last Thursday's capital markets day with its 'buy' recommendation intact along with its 1,975p price target. The shares – changing hand for 1,182.36p – are currently trading at a 40% discount to that valuation.Earlier this month hedge fund ShadowFall launched an attack on Future, accusing the media group of making a series of poor-quality acquisitions that had masked a weak organic growth rate.The publisher was quick to respond as it told investors just a day later that its full-year results would be "materially ahead" of market expectations thanks to "strong momentum" four months into the financial year.Peel Hunt was left "impressed" by Future's strategy and direction."The capital markets day gave us confidence that Future's strong platform allows it to scale its business and support growth for multiple years to come," the broker said."We were encouraged by the many opportunities to expand the business in the next few years."

[rampmeister] 11/2/2020 18:00

Peel Hunt impressed with the presentation and emerged with their buy recommendation intact 1975p.

[...]

RM

[rampmeister] 11/2/2020 17:31

Thanks for link ihatemms and most illuminating. Seems shorters probems with their model have been answered in spades. I would have liked to hear the Q&A but maybe there were no questions. Onwards and upwards.

RM

[ihatemms] 11/2/2020 11:23

Video of the Cap mkt day now up - 2 HOURS LONG - looks to be a big crowd of analysts there.

[thewheeliedealer] 10/2/2020 23:23

Hi all,

A couple of days ago I recorded the attached Podcast with Peter @Conkers3. In it we discuss FUTR among many others. You can also find it on the 'Conkers Corner' channel on Apple and Audioboom platforms. You want number 16.

Regards, WD
@wheeliedealer

[m1das_touch] 10/2/2020 12:54

Berenberg on Friday kept its Buy recommendation on Future PLC shares and raised its estimates on the magazine publisher's earnings, despite its shares falling by 18% over the past week.

Future shares were trading 5.1% lower in London on Monday at 1,186.00 pence each, and the stock is down 14% so far in 2020. Berenberg maintained its price target on Future shares at 1,830p.

Future is the publisher of specialist magazine titles on subjects such as on video games and technology.

The broker said Future's shares have pulled back amid concerns about its organic growth, mergers & acquisitions strategy, and cash generation. However, after reviewing those concerns, Berenberg said these are largely "unfounded, without context or, in limited cases, fair points that are well understood".

In addition, Berenberg said Future's four-month trading update indicated that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, as well as cash generation, were materially ahead of expectations.

On Monday last week, Future said it had "strong" trading momentum in the four months to the end of January and anticipates results for its financial year ending September 30 to be "materially" ahead of current market expectations.

Future added that audience members in its media division grew, and it has seen improved conversion of higher margin revenue in both e-commerce and digital display advertising.

"We therefore reiterate our Buy rating and view this pullback as an opportunity," said Berenberg analyst Edward James.

As a result, Berenberg increased its media organic growth forecast from 14% to 20% in Future's financial 2020, which translates into a 5% rise in its sales estimate for the entire group's annual sales.

In addition, the investment bank increased its forecasts on Future's annual Ebitda by 11%. The estimates were raised for financial 2021 by 4%.

"In the short-term, we believe there is a further 10% upside to our financial 2020 Ebitda estimates if the operating momentum in the media division continues for the rest of financial 2020," said James.

In Berenberg's view, it is "likely" that Future will maintain its 10% organic growth run rate and that Ebitda margins will continue to improve in financial 2021 and financial 2022, versus consensus expectations for a material slowdown in growth and flat Ebitda margins in these years.

"Once we add the potential for TI Media cost synergies to be pulled forwards and revenue synergies to be realised, we calculate that there is 20% and 30% upside to our financial 2021 and financial 2022 Ebitda estimates, respectively," said James.

Last month, the UK Competition & Markets Authority said it is looking into Future's proposed acquisition of TI Media.

In late October, the publisher had said it would acquire magazine printer TI Media - which owns brands including Decanter, Country Life and Horse & Hound - for GBP140 million in cash.

The CMA is looking into the deal to decide if it constitutes a merger or not. If so, it then will consider whether or not the deal will "result in a substantial lessening of competition within any market or markets in the UK for goods or services."

Looking ahead, Berenberg said it believes that Future's near-term share-price performance will largely be driven by changes in sentiment, but noted that these are "difficult to predict".

By Evelina Grecenko; [e-mail]

Copyright 2020 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

[rampmeister] 10/2/2020 11:45

Does anyone have the link to the video presentation to analysts from last week? I couldn’t find it on their website.

RM

[mog] 10/2/2020 11:24

Cash is king! Cash flow in 4 years to September 2019 from 2019 annual report
Free cash flow (£million) 1.2, 10.2, 12.3, 49.7
Amazing growth and still only historic price/cashflow of about 24 at £11.80, with say 20% growth in line with forecast earnings the prospective pcf is about 20, very good value. Shorters can question earnings but can't argue with cash.

[fardistanthills] 07/2/2020 15:34

Good post Alphabeta4 - entirely agree. Half Year Results last year were out 17th May. Looking forward with interest to this years announcement.