Reminder of the dividend forecast in Midas article from May. Annual 3.9p would be a healthy 3.8% yield at current share price. Half that for the interims would be 1.95p, but we don't know how they would plan to weight interim against final.
"A dividend of 0.7p is forecast for the year just ended, rising to 3.9p for the current year.
FRP intends to be generous on the dividend front, making half-yearly payments this year but moving to quarterly distributions in 2021" |
Not much of a risk..BEG increasing significantly more which I don't understand..this share seems a no brainier come the new year... |
A reminder that FRP announce their interim results on 16th December. Note this will be the first full 6 months earnings since IPO, on which to base a dividend payment. |
Sky News Breaking just now on Twitter:
Debenhams has confirmed that its administrators FRP Advisory will start a wind-down of the UK business whilst continuing to seek offers for all or parts of the business. |
May be a bit flippant, but somebody early yesterday afternoon had a better idea what to do with £50k....... Risk at FRP? or Opportunity elsewhere? (Coincidentally we have got a kitchen planner visiting outside this afternoon) |
Why the drop? |
(Bloomberg) -- Over half of Europe’s small and medium-sized businesses say they face bankruptcy in the next year if revenues don’t pick up, underscoring the breadth of damage wrought by the Covid-19 crisis. One in five companies in Italy and France anticipate filing for insolvency within six months, according to a McKinsey & Co. survey in August of more than 2,200 SMEs in Europe’s five largest economies.
(UK is one of those five largest European economies surveyed) |
Holding FRP seems a reasonable hedge against what's coming, when you see figures like these:
'Earlier this month, the Bank of England forecast that the jobless rate would rise to nearly 8% by the middle of next year ...' |
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/21/aston-boss-stroll-f1-bribery-row/ |
https://www.randrlife.co.uk/aston-boss-stroll-has-been-withdrawn-to-serve-in-india-court/Geoff Rowley being sued He is suing the team managers, two notable FRP Advisory figures, including Geoff Rowley, CEO, for allegations of negligence and breach of trust in the sale process. The son of Mr. Mazpin is also a racing driver. |
https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/11/frasers-group-warns-edinburgh-woollen-mill-administrators-against-unfair-deal/ |
I can smell Mike Ashley sniffing about |
 Take a look at MANO, who's share price is unbelievably depressed following an inaccurate and erroneous report from Share Prophets’ IMO. PE is a fraction of FRP. - Company highlights:- • Largest UK insolvency litigator, 65% market share. In a growing market estimated to be worth 1.5bn pa. • Jackson reforms removed success fees, ‘no fee no win’ arrangements. Transformational for third-party funders like MP, who purchase 92% of their 2021 cases. • Potential barrier to entry for new insolvency litigators as likely will require capital funding to buy cases. • Primary litigator for HMRC. In the last 3 months 2 cases generated £7.2m profit. • MP has built a national network of solicitors in the last 2 years, previously London/SE. • From 2014 to 2019, annual new case instructions had been c40-60 pa. Since MP built national network of solicitors new case instruction tripled - 2020 - 141 cases - YTD 2021 (6 months) – 126. • Bankruptcies have recently been falling due to government support, MP’s business has flourished under this environment. • Case duration 11 months and 92% of cases purchases. Comparisons with Burford Capital are ill-conceived – different metrics. • Half year profit 9.5m (4.0m was from realised cases). PE is currently 6.6 - fair value of unrealised gains on investment cases is being ignored by market. PE ridiculously low for a company with MP’s growth. • Since IPO in 2010, MP have realised 305 cases for £18m. They currently have 224 ongoing cases. Ignoring the fact that the number of new case instructions and values are increasing, 224 cases should realise 12m in the next 11 months. The current discounting of MP’s fair value of unrealised gains will abate over the next year when gains are realised. • MP’s two cartel cases (£5-£10m each) are nearing completion, could potentially amplify growth. • BANKRUPTICES WILL SKYROCKET WHEN GOVERNEMENT SUPPORT IS REMOVED. Estimates that 800,000 to 1,000,000 companies could fold within a year (normally 15,000 to 20,000 pa). MP have national network and capacity to take on transformation number of new cases. I’m struggling to see the downside here exactly?! |
Regardless, both parties will want a swift resolution to this matter from the Supreme Court of England. And it will be interesting to see which way the verdict will go in the coming months. |
According to The Times ,Uralkali, the Russian company for which Mazepin is the main shareholder, accuses Rowley and Baker, senior partners at FRP Advisory, of conducting a fundamentally flawed and unfair sale. Uralkali says it was "materially misled" about a bidding process the administrators had said would be fair and transparent. |
Https://www.essentiallysports.com/f1-news-aston-martin-boss-lawrence-stroll-in-hot-water-over-illegal-force-india-f1-deal-reports/ |
Very decent trading update.
"the Group expects to report revenues for the half year to 31 October 2020 of GBP35.9m, up 14% on the prior year (H1 2019: GBP31.4m), and underlying adjusted EBITDA* of GBP9.7m, up 7% on the prior year (H1 2019: GBP9.1m), in line with the Board's expectations"
Half year results due in just over 4 weeks' time on 16th Dec. Note this will be the first full 6 months of earnings since IPO on which to base a dividend payment. |
Indeed, what people often forget is that you need economic conditions to improve to the extent that creditors/banks find it worthwhile putting zombie businesses into administration to try to recover at least some of the debts |
Positive Pfizer vaccine news means more likely restrictions and furlough etc to be short term only, meaning artificial buttress against insolvency will be removed. Back to survival of the fittest by Spring? All other things being equal, should be bullish for FRP. |
Https://www.retailsector.co.uk/425120-frasers-group-claims-to-have-been-frozen-out-of-ewm-bid/ |
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