Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mark4231] 30/1/2019 18:48

Yes, that is how I interpret it.

[yankhanson] 30/1/2019 18:46

Mark4231, you're saying the non-basegame "cumulative franchise units" number is in fact just one DLC, Horizons, excluding all the other DLCs, vanity items etc?? That would be crazy not to mention false reporting to the market.

[mark4231] 30/1/2019 18:34

In reply to YankHanson, your interpretation, most certainly not how I interpret it.

[rar100] 30/1/2019 18:34

Can anyone give some views as to why the volumes are always so low, in my uneducated opinion that to me must keep the share price down. (i.e. It would indicate very little interest in the stock - which I don't understand given good products selling reasonably well in a booming niche market.)
I have always thought that the company doesn't give out enough positive information to the general market place, which would explain the low volumes I suppose.

[yankhanson] 30/1/2019 18:05

Mark4231, extras/DLC average price is roughly calculated from the FDev web shop.

"The recent trading update indicated 43% take up of the Horizons expansion alone"

No it doesn't. It indicates 43% take up of "cumulative franchise units" beyond the game itself. It indicates no figure for Horizons expansion.

[mark4231] 30/1/2019 17:30

YankHanson, where does the ED DLC / average price per owner info come from? The recent trading update indicated 43% take up of the Horizons expansion alone - which has always cost way more than £2, full price is £19.99 at the moment! Plus that is all ignoring the other ED DLC that is available too.

[nimbo1] 30/1/2019 16:47

Yank what are you yabbering on about you useless fool

[yankhanson] 30/1/2019 16:26

Profit and EPS can't differ much from broker forecasts.

What I'm interested to see are future performance indicators like the "encouraging player engagement KPIs" touted in the lastest Liberum note. The only player engagement info FD has released recently is far from encouraging. ED number of extras/DLC sales per owner averaging only 0.43 bring at an average price of around only £2. Jurassic's DLC performance has also been very weak, going by industry sales charts. Planet Coaster seems to have done better, but FD hasn't given figures yet.

[mark4231] 30/1/2019 10:26

Interims will also reveal the profit on that revenue and the EPS.

[czeck] 30/1/2019 10:24

Interims will only reveal what is known since the trading update; do you really think the share price will be lifted?

[sogoesit] 30/1/2019 10:12

Errr, yes, I am expecting something "different" than the TU.
The clue is in the name "Interim Results" .... geddit?

[hawaly] 30/1/2019 07:41

Careful, you'll be labelled as "clueless investors" at this rate.....

[yankhanson] 29/1/2019 23:05

A lift? Are you expecting interims to shows anything different/better than the recent trading update?

[rar100] 29/1/2019 22:54

The P/E looks to come from the FinnCap note of 15th January 2019. Finncap have estimated FY19 EPS at 38.9p. "Buying opportunity: The share price suffered in the recent market correction but
now offers exceptional value on a P/E of 23x for very secure earnings this year."


The share price was/is still, suffering well before the October onwards correction, since the 5th of June 2018.

Every dog has it's day it is said, this dog really needs that day soon.

Brokers are often wrong and certainly were in 2018, Hopefully I will be surprised and we see an upside but 8 months of a sliding SP, all I have is hope.

Frankly I expect a bit of a lift after Interims, short lived and then the re-trace to where we are now. Some good news on the next franchise would not go amiss and good news of any sort will help possibly...

A dog is a dog is another expression...

[discodave4] 29/1/2019 18:28

This is still a pile of pooh! lol

[mark4231] 29/1/2019 14:01

Thanks both, clearly my maths is more optimistic than the brokers. :-)

[hastings] 29/1/2019 13:52

For what it's worth Citi group's note has 40p EPS for full year 19

[mbh1] 29/1/2019 13:25

The P/E looks to come from the FinnCap note of 15th January 2019. Finncap have estimated FY19 EPS at 38.9p. "Buying opportunity: The share price suffered in the recent market correction but
now offers exceptional value on a P/E of 23x for very secure earnings this year."

[mark4231] 29/1/2019 12:22

DiscoDave, I questioned it as earlier in the thread some of us estimated a P/E of about 10 for this FY. Anyway, we'll have a more official figure to work with next week.

[discodave4] 29/1/2019 11:08

With revenue of say £83m, I get eps circa 44p, that gives a PE of about 20.......with a peg of only 0.1, tremendous value here IMO.

[endion] 29/1/2019 11:01

Must be referring to its pe ratio based on past earnings. Even though they had just said H1 for 2018 is going to be a record 246% higher than the previous year.... fowl up in the reporting there.

[mark4231] 29/1/2019 09:09

Mention on The Motley Fool website.



I don't know how they get to "22 times forecast earnings" though. Any ideas?

[hastings] 26/1/2019 12:26

I didn’t say it was.
Having been here since 2013 I hope to be around for a good deal longer yet.
Frontier was celebrating 25 years yesterday, having started then from a humble barn with just a handful of people. Great story and journey which I’m sure I’m not alone in believing has a good way to run yet.

[yankhanson] 26/1/2019 12:18

You think there's any buy price that makes FDEV's 50% drop welcome?? I don't.

[hastings] 26/1/2019 11:23

Depends where you bought I guess