Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[jerseyman1] 14/9/2017 11:29

Only time in recent past 5m plus traded was on results day and AGM when there were current year updates. Next likely trigger is a pre close for H1 around early Oct.......or market actually realising these shares are seriously undervalued and buying up that overhang pdq

[toffeeman] 14/9/2017 11:14

The only trades that matter are the ATs

this morning ATs have moved from a buy at 37 to a sell at 37 - so up 1p

volume is still much too low here we need to see a day volume of over 5m to see what's really going on.

[jerseyman1] 14/9/2017 11:03

Indeed! It's a consistent issue though.....

[mreasygoing] 14/9/2017 10:23

They obviously read this thread my friend.

[jerseyman1] 14/9/2017 09:54

So at 9.51 there were c100k shares traded in c 12 lots with a min price of 36.45 and max of 37, with bid ask of 36.5/37 and the price quoted stayed at 35.5 all morning. Why?

[mreasygoing] 13/9/2017 20:00

Frustrating as it sounds, we may need to see a triple bottom around 30p. The fundamentals seem to look good going forward. Chart is forming a good base.

[jerseyman1] 13/9/2017 17:38

Looks like a significant seller dripping out their shares with what appears to me to be a canny buyer quietly building a stake.News flow re airport passengers and UK stay action all been positive as has whatever news there has been about Flybe generally. Momentum of business as reported in H2 update was strong, nothing to contradict that as far as I can see, and apparently planes forecast to return to lessors have started to go back.Problem is the mkt cap is so small it's not hard for a consistent seller to really depress the SP, and me along with it!Underlying prospects for this business appear strong to me, hopefully H1 will be reported before usual November date, put us out of our misery!

[che7win] 13/9/2017 16:58

Not sure, I bought a couple of times today, seems an overhang.

[dangersimpson2] 13/9/2017 16:46

There must be a large seller in the background to balance the trades. The vast majority of the reported trades today were buys - including some below the mid. Which means that someone must be selling and the trades haven't been reported yet.

[mktommo] 13/9/2017 16:37

That's me back in negative territory tonight with a sell of 35.5..... I think the story here is optimistic - certainly if the trend of the last results continues.But even with buys out doing sells the price has inched right back down. Any ideas why? Is it just market confidence after prolonged poor performance (other than the last results of course!)?

[samdb] 13/9/2017 10:36

Very confident about this one for the next few months.

[mreasygoing] 13/9/2017 09:33

Good volume early on. Lots of buying.

[dangersimpson2] 12/9/2017 17:13

If they are sure they will beat the £6m forecast then they should issue a statement to the market - in reality I think the new CFO will aim for a small beat this year and if revenue is strong accelerate some cost recognition of new IT systems and marketing spend or maintenance in the half year to keep some in reserve for the weaker H2 and next year so that he looks like the genius!

That said if trading really is as strong as +14% passenger revenue in Q2 and this continues into Q3/4 then I think a larger revenue & PAT beat could be on the cards and we may see a post close trading statement at the beginning of October relating to H1 & FY expectations. They won't want to commit to anything too soon though because things can change very rapidly in the airline industry.

[sandoval] 12/9/2017 15:53

The problem Flybe has is letting down it's investors too many times in the past. Flybe - the quickest way from A to B could have said Flybe - the quickest way from £1.20 to 30p. Flybe problem hasn't really been revenue/passenger growth - last financial year it has 8.3% passenger revenue increase but 15.5% operating cost increase and let's not forget another £6 million IT writedown 17/18. Best broker estimate I've seen is £6 million PBT but with all airports reporting record figures and with capacity issues being controlled it now finally, on a 3 year view, could be the most undervalued share outside of a hole in the ground in the market which is still oblivious to the potential.

[mreasygoing] 12/9/2017 15:44

Sounds all good. I think the mms are taking a chance letting the share price drift. I reckon it'll come back to bite them.

[curtain twitcher] 12/9/2017 15:14

Record-breaking summer for Stansted 12 SEP 2017

United Kingdom and Middle Eastern destinations performed particularly well, recording a 6 and 7 per cent increase respectively. Gatwick Airport chief executive, Stewart Wingate, said: "Gatwick has just had its biggest-ever month during its busiest-ever summer holiday period - this clearly demonstrates the passenger demand for the growing global connectivity offered by Gatwick". In August, passenger growth to United Kingdom destinations was up by 6 per cent due to Flybe's new route to Scotland. Cargo passing through the UK's largest port also climbed 13 per cent to 139,000 tonnes, with Latin America the fastest growing trading market as cargo volumes rose 30 per cent for the month. Heathrow Airport has hailed its "best-ever" August after welcoming nearly 7.5 million passengers. "Heathrow is firing on all cylinders and showing the world our country is open for business". The top-ten busiest days in Stansted's history are now all recorded in July and August this year. Finally Stansted welcomed 2.7 million passengers in August, its busiest ever month and 9.9 per cent up on the same period previous year. Stansted Airport's commercial director, Martin Jones, said: "The summer schedule was boosted by new flights and holidays from jet2.com plus more passengers than ever flying with Ryanair". For the second consecutive month, more than 1.4 million people passed through Edinburgh Airport as passenger numbers continue to soar. The rolling 12 month total to August 2017 now stands at 25.4 million passengers, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year. Yesterday, Gatwick announced it had topped the 8m mark for summer holiday passengers for the first time, with 4.9m passengers travelling through the airport in August. As students head back to school Gatwick reveals where Brits are increasingly choosing to spend their summer holidays and the destination trends in travellers' choices. "Service has been at the forefront of our summer".





12 SEP 2017
Cornwall Airport aiming to be region's best by linking with BA, KLF and Lufthansa

Cornwall Airport Newquay is seeking connections with major international airlines including British Airways, KLM and Lufthansa and it bids to grow passenger numbers.

Newquay airport continues to witness a surge in its passenger traffic after handling a record 61,000 passengers during August, Cornwalllive.com reported.

Exeter Airport saw around 850,000 passengers last year.

The summer figures for Newquay were up 30% from the same month in 2016 and the growth is more than triple the EU average of 8%. The airport on course to reach its 600,000 to 650,000 passengers target.

It is now seeking hub connection with major airlines which would give regional passengers extra choice and the opportunity to seamlessly connect through other airports and on to their final destination with just one initial check-in.

The move could significantly increase passenger numbers although the Cornwall site still has some way to surpass Exeter Airport which handled 847,257 passengers last year.

CAN managing director Al Titterington is heading to Barcelona later this month to attend the World Routes conference.

The event involves airports and airlines meeting to determine future new air services, and Mr Titterington will continue in his pursuit of attracting a hub connection with the likes of British Airways, KLM or Lufthansa.

“I’m extremely optimistic that this strong positive trend in our rapid traffic expansion will continue for the rest of this year, seeing us achieve yet more outstanding results,” Mr Titterington said.

“Our passenger traffic has also resulted in us posting further record figures in the first five months of the financial year (April to August). We’ve welcomed 260,279 passengers, a 25% increase in traffic numbers.”

The growth is largely attributed to the increase in capacity on the Flybe services to London Gatwick and Manchester, the return of Ryanair with its twice weekly services to Alicante and Frankfurt-Hahn, as well as increased frequency to Dublin (Aer Lingus) and new routes to Leeds Bradford, Doncaster Sheffield, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Liverpool.

With Flybe’s busiest link from Cornwall continuing to be London Gatwick, the airline’s route to Manchester has seen a sizeable 38% increase, while its Birmingham service has jumped by 14%.

Handling more than 40,000 passengers so far, Ryanair is close to doubling its customer base at CAN, while Aer Lingus Regional has also seen a notable 18% increase in passenger traffic.

[toffeeman] 12/9/2017 12:54

If PAT were just £20m it would still mean low market cap.

Nice analysis

[dangersimpson2] 12/9/2017 11:56

The key to the next set of results will be how much of the 14% increase in passenger revenue from Q2 advance bookings carry through to the whole quarter:

Forward sales in Q2 as at 24th July 2017 improved as the slowdown in capacity growth continued to drive yield and revenue per seat:

· 14% increase in passenger revenue vs. prior year

This would give £382m H1 passenger revenue and £426m H1 total revenue if white label & other revenue is similar to H1 2016.

I'm modelling £384m H1 costs based on the previous year + 2% inflation with reduced fuel costs of about 10% due to current hedging price, higher depreciation but lower rental costs due to more owned aircraft, increased marketing spend and half the £6m IT charge.

This would give £42m PBT & £34m PAT. Which compares favourably to the current £80m market cap.

Of course the 14% revenue growth for the whole of Q2 and my expectation of cost control may be optimistic but it does show what the upside is here if they can finally deliver operationally.

[dahhad] 12/9/2017 09:33

looks like its baton down the hatches and hope that the half year results in November offer some encouragement! Until then I fear meeasygoing's cheap chips could get cheaper!

[phillis] 11/9/2017 10:02

Heathrow RNS today

§ UK destinations saw 6% passenger growth on the back of recently launched Flybe flights to Scotland. Middle Eastern destinations were also popular with travellers with fuller aircraft leading to a 7% increase in passengers to the region

[sandoval] 07/9/2017 17:31

Little surprised this had no effect on the SP

[mreasygoing] 05/9/2017 18:59

Good figures from Stobart today. They're looking strong and want acquisitions to build their aviation market share. Will they go for Flybe while the market cap is still low ?

[toffeeman] 05/9/2017 18:54

Nope still here assault on precinct 41 failed first time - waiting for second attempt.