Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 08/8/2017 08:39

we need to break £1 before i dance in the streets

[wanttowin] 08/8/2017 07:19

Things do seem to be getting better for Flybe.

[jerseyman1] 07/8/2017 19:59

Dangersimpson.....appreciate you doing the work on this. Given the way you have put it together I agree seasonality should be taken into account, so there could be upside on consensus even if there are one or two assumptions that don't work through as expected. Strange the pretty sizeable difference between Digital Look and Stockopedia consensus numbers...

[dangersimpson2] 07/8/2017 19:02

It's just a model, and profit is the difference between 2 large numbers so small variances in the assumptions will have a big impact so the one thing you can guarantee is that it will be wrong somewhere.

That said I've modelled each quarter based on the same quarter in the prior year so the seasonality effects should already be in this analysis.

Stockopedia has consensus £6.2m Net Profit FY17/18 & £16.5m FY18/19. Either way I think the Q1 trading statement places the risk to the upside wheras prior to that update the risk was to the downside and the price reflected that.

[kumala] 07/8/2017 17:49

The two month chart looks ok, with a trend patern forming, hopefully the 40p mark will hold.
K

[jerseyman1] 07/8/2017 16:48

Dangersimpson, interesting analysis. Wish it could be as good as that, but seasonality, particularly Jan-Mar period, will have big impact. Current consensus per Digital Look is £2.87m pbt this year and £20.9m in FY19. So still a lot of potential for upside surprise this year given first and second quarter trends.

[sandoval] 07/8/2017 16:41

Hard to believe the whole market is this far behind the curve.

[dangersimpson2] 07/8/2017 16:29

I think the market still hasn't fully priced the potential of the Q1 trading statement & passenger revenue running at +14% for Q2 so far. This is what I get if I model a similar performance for the rest of the year:


17/18 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FYSeat Capacity (m) 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.8 12.5 <- 6x Q400 Capacity Reduction H2Passenger Numbers (m) 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 9.6 Load Factor 72.5% 78.8% 79.8% 79.4% 76.9% Passenger Revenue (£m) 174.0 207.8 166.3 161.5 709.6 <- Q1 Reported, Q2+14% Revenue per Passenger (£) 71.33 75.63 72.31 73.39 73.5Passenger Revenue (£m) 174 207.8 166.3 161.5 709.6White Label Revenue (£m) 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 35.6 <- Same as Q1Other Revenue (£m) 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 18.8 <- Same as Q1Total Revenue 187.6 221.4 179.9 175.1 764.0 Staff costs (£m) 122.6 +2% staff agreementFuel Cost (£m) 91.0 -10% Current hedged pricing vs prior yearAirport and en route charges (£m) 151.2 +2% InflationGround operations (£m) 96.2 +2% InflationMaintenance (£m) 40.2 +2% InflationDepreciation and amortisation (£m) 43.0 +10% Higher owned aircraftAircraft rental charges (£m) 92.6 -5% 6 out of 85 Q400 returned in H2Marketing and distribution costs (£m) 28.5 +5% Increased MarketingOther operating (gains)/losses (£m) 6.0 IT ProvisionOther operating expenses (£m) 62.9 +2% InflationFinance Costs (£m) 5.0 Same as FY16/17Total Costs (£m) 739.2 PBT (£m) 24.8PAT (£m) 19.9



Current Consensus is for £6.2m PAT so if the performance in Q1/2 is carried forward to the full year combined with the capacity reductions then that would be a big beat vs current expectations.

[toffeeman] 07/8/2017 15:51

Volume needs to pick up in the next 40 mins.....

[toffeeman] 07/8/2017 15:50

50p if the price carries on up - which would be good for those who bought at <35

[dahhad] 07/8/2017 15:40

useless23, if you don't mind me asking, where do you seeing the technical breakout taking us back to? I've a long way to go!! Thanks

[toffeeman] 07/8/2017 15:29

Bingo first one at 15.28 - now let's see if that holds

[toffeeman] 07/8/2017 15:25

close with AT sells at 41 nearly there but not yet! (15.25)

[netcurtains] 07/8/2017 15:18

perhaps 45?

[guernseymoney] 07/8/2017 15:14

Flybe CEO was just here in not so sunny Guernsey actually, she got very positive write-ups from local snakebite media who typically hate on anything to do with local air links.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 07/8/2017 15:10

Breaking out nicely now, a close above 41p is required.
It seems that once again as on many shares,the defining turning point came on Steve global selling out.

[netcurtains] 07/8/2017 15:03

nearly...... 42?

[toffeeman] 07/8/2017 14:58

Nearly.....

[guernseymoney] 04/8/2017 20:38

Slack chat - general / irrelevant natter (or at least I think that's what he was getting at), hence why they invented Slack, to stop so many emails going back n forth.

[toffeeman] 04/8/2017 19:05

Not yet it's not - need AT sells at 41 and a close at that level

[useless23] 04/8/2017 18:52

2 good reasons for buying this share: it's cheap as chips and it's on a technical breakout.

[netcurtains] 04/8/2017 18:37

nice that held 40p

[toffeeman] 04/8/2017 17:58

No comprende Slack chat - I use Slack though

[guernseymoney] 04/8/2017 15:50

On Slack, we use that at work now and it's indeed sweet.

But get what you're saying re Slack chat.

[mreasygoing] 04/8/2017 15:30

Aww sweet, bringing that Slack talk here.