I’m afraid stateside outcome will not be strong for the weekend just gone… wish you were right on that as would have built on a strong start to the quarter. |
Chutzpah with a capital C hereAll 4 favs failed to win in English football yesterday & the 2 underdogs had 71pc & 69pc of the money on them in the Super Bowl semis last night again adding to what is looking like a strong Jan across both sides |
I can only step back and admire your hutzpah Whitehouse!
Moving on - likely poor NFL night yesterday with both high scoring matches and many touchdowns. Many Parlay bets will have been landed … although KC Chiefs victory at least (hopefully) ensures Taylor Swift will be at the Super Bowl which perhaps broadens the scope to add new accounts. |
Another 30m in NYMaking 3 x 30m in last 4 weeks = 4,5 & 6th best weeks ever seen in NY |
“Flutter Entertainment is actively considering submitting a bid to run Italy’s main lottery licence, after authorities formally pressed the start button on the process in recent weeks, according to sources.
The Italian Agency for Customers and Monopolies, which oversees gambling regulation, estimates the nine-year lottery contract will have a gross value of €4.3 billion, according to documents published this month” |
Jan 17, 2025 04:43 PST
Stifel Initiates Flutter Entertainment at Buy With $320 Price Target
FLUT has an average rating of buy and mean price target of $310.85, according to analysts |
FD now gone live in Puerto Rico Doubled up from 80 notes in a year a couple years back, while on LSE, & suits could get on the black stuff after work. |
New York week ending 12th Jan - Total handle $561m
DK $191.3m handle $20.4m hold (10.7%)
FD $218m handle $30m hold (13.8% hold - 48% hold market share but still $3m lower hold than same week in 2024)
Bet MGM came 3rd on hold with $3.7m |
Agreed Jam62 on the shift to primary listing in US. We should acknowledge Fanduel’s incredible success in the high margin NFL parlay market brings a fairly shocking level of volatility. This has come home to roost in Q4 where the gargantuan hit to quarterly EBITDA is likely to be much higher than the competitors. That said, this is a “feature not a bug” (term stolen from the EKG line) and should bring outsized profits in other quarters IF the maths is right… which I believe it is (NFL playoffs so far have been great for the books). Importantly, investors/market seem to have accepted this argument hence the lack of market reaction…time will tell. |
Blimey, have you not noticed the huge re-rating that has materialised since moving the principal listing from London to the U.S.? |
All in all the move to the US is looking less than ideal thus far. It has put the shares into a market where DraftKings is the only player talked about both on TV and chat boards. Run by 3 ex business card salesmen their continuing underperformance is not helpful to others. Their shares go down & so does the whole sectorThere is also now an apparent need to try too hard in the US. And pay less attention to other countries of the World. Better Risk management should not let a couple of weekends of a single sport (NFL) results determine a 12m player worldwide companies numbers across dozens of sports & iCasinos. And wiping out the benefit of the weakest Q for favs in Prem footy history. Well before the 72m quoted liability was reached the SGP offers that appear to have been the major issue should have been restricted. |
Hi all, good piece in the Times today on the Flutter Trading update. Apparently there was a loss of $74m on a single NFL game on Dec 30th… pretty chunky relative to the biggest exposures we are used to seeing on this side of the pond. I always come away from these periods wondering if an unfavourable run is materially more likely than a favourable one perhaps due to market pressures (ie the expected level of favs winning isn’t really the mid-point). I’d be keen to hear other people’s views on that especially if you work with data/statistics. |
Up 2 pounds & 4 bucks = no issueGive us the number for Q4 in NY then, 3 months 2023 & 2 months & 4 weeks 2024 (& you will see you do not understand) issue more hope/guidance than actual numbers in 'your' NY |
Agreed Derry. Fairly minor share price reaction with unfavourable sports results only ever a transient issue. Hopefully Q1 will be tougher for the punters. |
You win some,you lose some.The punters are having their day in the sun.Good for business in the longer term. |
Whitehouse - I ask that you cease from sending any further negative comments in light of below. We can both share our opinions and if you disagree with mine that is fine… just be respectful. BTW I appreciated your big picture note on Brazil business earlier this week.
Whitehouse - 18th Dec. Clueless One week in NY represents 1/1000th of Flutters profits for the QHow about igaming for Oct & Nov, England football for 10 weeks, Italy, Brazil, Oz racing etc etc etc etcEither widen your research or quit posting ludicrous statements based on titbits. If you want NFL to be the only story join DKA little knowledge is a dangerous thing
Rkeck - NB week ending 15th Dec is not going to be good at all and December’s performance as a whole is likely (imho) to lead to an Q4 Earnings miss (bar an exceptionally strong 2nd half of the month) |
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has reported significant impacts from unfavorable US sports results in Q4 2024. The company experienced adverse outcomes primarily in NFL Parlay and Same Game Parlay bets, with the 2024/2025 NFL season showing the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.
The unfavorable results led to an estimated $438m reduction in gross gaming revenue (GGR), approximately $390m in revenue reduction, and $260m decrease in Adjusted EBITDA for the period from November 12 to December 31. As a result, US revenue for 2024 is now estimated at $5.78bn, down from the previous guidance of $6.05bn-$6.25bn. The 2024 US Adjusted EBITDA is revised to approximately $505m, compared to previous guidance of $670m-$750m.
Q4 sportsbook net revenue margin was 6.6%, with structural revenue margin at 14.5%. The Group Ex-US segment showed positive performance, with UK and Ireland operations demonstrating good momentum and favorable sports results in the English Premier League |
Brazil really kicking in, even before deregulation last weekBetnacional had 1.2m site visits per day when Flutter bought it September time. By November it was just behind Bet365 both circa 2.2m visits. December shows Bet365 static at 2.2m with Betnacional now up to 2.8m visits per day. Context : FD & DK have 475k visits daily. SkyBet no 1 in UK in Dec with 309k.Bet size is over 6 times smaller in BrazilNext update getting more interesting |
Waiter? Humble pie for me please…
New York week ending Dec 29th
Total Handle $519.8m Total Hold $61m
DK $165.6m handle $18.1m hold (10.9%)
FD $213m handle $30.2m hold (14.1%)
W-O-W
Apparently the high margin parlay bets went south for the punters hence surprise hold margin. Good to see UK Footy results still all over the place. |
Brazil live today for both Betfair & Betnacional and crucially both on sports betting and icasinoWith 200m residents this will form an important arm of Flutter and site daily visit volume increases since October show the Flutter magic already beginning to work. Betfair was and remains 6th most popular site but Betnacional has already jumped from 4th to 2nd biggest player in Brazil within 3 months. Flutter has already circa now 3m daily visits to its Brazil sites. How customer levels will jump on deregulation is anybody's guess but Flutter are very well positioned to take advantage of this huge deregulation. |
helps buffer the sports results which have been bettor favourable. |
New York w/e 22nd Dec
FD $205.5m handle $15.7m hold (7.6%). Another sub par week and subsequent NFL results over Christmas have again heavily gone with the favourites. Assuming usual correlation with the rest of the states, I believe we will get an overall Earnings miss in Q4 (even if, as seems likely, favourable UK soccer results will help offset the damage). |
New York State w/ending 15th Dec
DK $142m handle $10m hold (7%) hold
FD $185m handle $20m (10.8%) hold
I tip my hat to our Fanduel. This was a very tough week across the main driver (NFL) with nearly all the well backed favourites obliging (and covering the spread). 11% is an incredible result and well ahead of the rest. |
Fanduel was the I-gaming market leader in Nov apparently (research from JMP Securities): “The Flutter-owned operator held a 27.4% online casino market share last month, compared to the 25.4% reported in Q3”.
Really good news if this sustains with the extra margin from this business. |
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