New York w/e 22nd Dec
FD $205.5m handle $15.7m hold (7.6%). Another sub par week and subsequent NFL results over Christmas have again heavily gone with the favourites. Assuming usual correlation with the rest of the states, I believe we will get an overall Earnings miss in Q4 (even if, as seems likely, favourable UK soccer results will help offset the damage). |
New York State w/ending 15th Dec
DK $142m handle $10m hold (7%) hold
FD $185m handle $20m (10.8%) hold
I tip my hat to our Fanduel. This was a very tough week across the main driver (NFL) with nearly all the well backed favourites obliging (and covering the spread). 11% is an incredible result and well ahead of the rest. |
Fanduel was the I-gaming market leader in Nov apparently (research from JMP Securities): “The Flutter-owned operator held a 27.4% online casino market share last month, compared to the 25.4% reported in Q3”.
Really good news if this sustains with the extra margin from this business. |
Why the sharp decline today? |
The stock might be down because NCAA president made some comments again about sports betting and props. |
Bless you Mr Whitehouse. I do so enjoy your posts. With respect (albeit ever decreasing), the data from New York is demonstrably correlated (a bellwhether if you like) with the rest of the states. We had this “spat” over a couple of weeks in October and we know how that ended up in Q3 Earnings. Will the favourable Football outcomes on this side of the pond offset to cover this? Possibly… my analysis suggests “not quite” unless Dec ends strongly. |
Retraction Est. $243-250[Flut]
End of Retraction Est. Jan 10-17th, 2025 |
Champions league upsets galore vis a vis new league format |
England football 11 weeks in a row in the books favour |
Michigan sports Nov 15m up from 3m YoY |
Michigan igaming 50m & 51m up from 33m & 39m and represent the 2nd & 3rd highest in FD Michigan history |
NJ igaming up 35pc & 30pc in Oct & Nov and are the highest months in FD history for any State |
Clueless One week in NY represents 1/1000th of Flutters profits for the QHow about igaming for Oct & Nov, England football for 10 weeks, Italy, Brazil, Oz racing etc etc etc etcEither widen your research or quit posting ludicrous statements based on titbits. If you want NFL to be the only story join DKA little knowledge is a dangerous thing |
NB week ending 15th Dec is not going to be good at all and December’s performance as a whole is likely (imho) to lead to an Q4 Earnings miss (bar an exceptionally strong 2nd half of the month)
New York state week ending 8th Dec
DK $165m handle $12.8m hold (7.8%)
FD $213.1m handle $16.7m hold (7.8%)
Sub par week in my opinion but not a disaster. The strong trend on Fanatics handle finally broken. |
Useful insight from EKG Line (respected source in my opinion). FYI you can subscribe for free and no I am not connected in any way.
“Fanatics̵7; recent growth spike reflects the brand’s focus on getting OSB product right or ish before opening the marketing valve. We don’t think that spike is just product and marketing, however, with checks suggesting Fanatics is getting better at day-to-day execution—retaining the right customers, for example. Online casino, meanwhile, remains a work in progress.
A tiny dip (in Q3GGR) for FanDuel suggests its OSB moat is not as considerable as it once was, and competitors are catching up in key areas (e.g. SGP) where FanDuel was first-moving, best-in-class, or both. That said, FanDuel’s once-middling online casino operation has vastly improved, with the brand likely having nicked a not-insignificant slice of BetMGM’s online slots business, per our research and estimates” |
Talking shop = irrelevant & toothlessWhat about NY 1/12? |
The federal Senate Judiciary Committee has announced that it will hold a hearing on sports betting on Tuesday, Dec. 17.
The exact details of what will be discussed at the hearing, which is titled “America’;s High Stakes on Legalized Sports Gambling,” have not been specified. However, the fact that this session has been scheduled Senate’s final week before it breaks for winter recess suggests that sports betting has climbed up the agenda for federal lawmakers. |
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